2012 Cdn Div Aristocrats

Boomer and Echo.com
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Gold in the Next Calendar Year

We’re not getting any older. Or, are we?

Yes, dear reader, it is all coming together...and falling apart.

First, this is a quiet time in the markets. The Dow barely moved yesterday. Gold, however, fell $10 to close under $1,600.

You know the drill. Sell stocks on rallies. Buy gold on dips. This formula has worked beautifully for the last 12 years. We don’t see any reason to give it up. Has anything important changed? Is there a new man at the Fed who is determined to save the dollar and the bond market? Has Congress suddenly decided to stop spending more than it takes in?

If so, we haven’t heard about it.

And so what if gold falls to 1,400? Or 1,200? You know what we call that. A buying opportunity!

But a lot of people don’t agree with us — thank God. They think gold has made its big move. They think we’re back in 1980...looking ahead to another big bull market in stocks and another big bear market in gold.

Not that there aren’t similarities. Let’s see...similarities...hmmm...hmmm...

Oh yes. The Fed chief then and the Fed chief now both walk on two legs!

But seriously, as Warren Buffett says, if you’re in a poker game and you can’t identify the patsy, you’re it. These people who see parallels between 1980 and 2011...who expect a recovery...and a boom...they must be the patsies.

If they’re not, we are. They are buying stocks and selling gold. We’re doing the opposite.

But you know something, dear reader... You know what we really think...? We consulted the Mayan calendar. It began on August 11, 3014 BC. And it ends...you guessed it...in 2012. And you know what that means? We can stop putting on seat belts. And stop worrying about M-2. Or M-1. Or any other M.

We mean, what’s the point...with the end of time coming and all?

And we can stop taking those nutritional supplements. Instead, we’re going to have an extra drink. What harm can it do? After all, if the Mayans are right, we’re not getting any older.

By the way...we’ve all heard of how Mayer Amschel Rothschild built his banking empire. What we don’t hear much about is how his wife, Gutle, did the hard work — preparing her children for the challenge ahead. We know now that any fool can run a bank...it’s almost a job requirement. But not any woman can build a team of children who are capable of running a banking empire.

Gutle outlived her husband. Despite the family’s great wealth, she lived all her life in the same tiny house in the Frankfurt Judengasse (Jewish alley) where she and Mayer had started out.

When she was in her 90s she consulted a doctor.

“What do you expect,” he said to her. “I can’t make you any younger.”

“You misunderstand, Herr Doctor,” she replied. “I want to be older.”

And more thoughts...

We think gold has further to fall. We also think bonds have further to rise. And we think this Japan-like slump has further to run.

Here’s something interesting. We have been predicting that the US would “turn Japanese” for nearly 10 years. Maybe more. Many were — and are — the parallels between the US and Japan. But one thing that never seemed to line up was the population trend. The Japanese are getting older...and fewer. Americans are still relatively young...and the population is still growing.

But wait. What’s this? The latest census data tells us that immigration in the US has fallen to a 20-year low...and population growth has slowed to 0.7% per year — the lowest level since before the Baby Boom generation was born.

Maybe we are turning Japanese after all.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

quoting George Karahalios

Over the next 12-18 months I expect the global debt crisis to perpetually re-erupt unless massive bailouts ensue. Either way, I expect the gold price to exceed $3000 US. At that point gold will have achieved close to fair value relative to the future prospects of other assets if the world were to have righted itself.

financialsense.com

A Christmas Story

~ by Rian B. Anderson

Pa never had much compassion for the lazy or those who squandered their means and then never had enough for the necessities. But for those who were genuinely in need, his heart was as big as all outdoors. It was from him that I learned the greatest joy in life comes from giving, not from receiving.

It was Christmas Eve 1881. I was fifteen years old and feeling like the world had caved in on me because there just hadn't been enough money to buy me the rifle that I'd wanted so bad that year for Christmas. We did the chores early that night for some reason. I just figured Pa wanted a little extra time so we could read in the Bible. So after supper was over I took my boots off and stretched out in front of the fireplace and waited for Pa to get down the old Bible. I was still feeling sorry for myself and, to be honest, I wasn't in much of a mood to read scriptures. But Pa didn't get the Bible, instead he bundled up and went outside. I couldn't figure it out because we had already done all the chores. I didn't worry about it long though, I was too busy wallowing in self-pity.

Soon Pa came back in. It was a cold clear night out and there was ice in his beard. "Come on, Matt," he said. "Bundle up good, it's cold out tonight." I was really upset then. Not only wasn't I getting the rifle for Christmas, now Pa was dragging me out in the cold, and for no earthly reason that I could see. We'd already done all the chores, and I couldn't think of anything else that needed doing, especially not on a night like this. But I knew Pa was not very patient at one dragging one's feet when he'd told them to do something, so I got up and put my boots back on and got my cap, coat, and mittens. Ma gave me a mysterious smile as I opened the door to leave the house. Something was up, but I didn't know what.

Outside, I became even more dismayed. There in front of the house was the work team, already hitched to the big sled. Whatever it was we were going to do wasn't going to be a short, quick, little job. I could tell. We never hitched up the big sled unless we were going to haul a big load. Pa was already up on the seat, reins in hand. I reluctantly climbed up beside him. The cold was already biting at me. I wasn't happy.

When I was on, Pa pulled the sled around the house and stopped in front of the woodshed. He got off and I followed. "I think we'll put on the high sideboards," he said. "Here, help me." The high sideboards! It had been a bigger job than I wanted to do with just the low sideboards on, but whatever it was we were going to do would be a lot bigger with the high sideboards on.

When we had exchanged the sideboards Pa went into the woodshed and came out with an armload of wood---the wood I'd spent all summer hauling down from the mountain, and then all fall sawing into blocks and splitting. What was he doing? Finally I said something. "Pa," I asked, "what are you doing?"

"You been by the Widow Jensen's lately?" he asked. The Widow Jensen lived about two miles down the road. Her husband had died a year or so before and left her with three children, the oldest being eight. Sure, I'd been by, but so what?
"Yeah," I said, "why?"
"I rode by just today," Pa said. "Little Jakey was out digging around in the woodpile trying to find a few chips. They're out of wood, Matt." That was all he said and then he turned and went back into the woodshed for another armload of wood. I followed him.

We loaded the sled so high that I began to wonder if the horses would be able to pull it. Finally, Pa called a halt to our loading, then we went to the smoke house and Pa took down a big ham and a side of bacon. He handed them to me and told me to put them in the sled and wait. When he returned he was carrying a sack of flour over his right shoulder and a smaller sack of something in his left hand. "What's in the little sack?" I asked.
"Shoes. They're out of shoes. Little Jakey just had gunny sacks wrapped around his feet when he was out in the woodpile this morning. I got the children a little candy too. It just wouldn't be Christmas without a little candy."

We rode the two miles to Widow Jensen's pretty much in silence. I tried to think through what Pa was doing. We didn't have much by worldly standards. Of course, we did have a big woodpile, though most of what was left now was still in the form of logs that I would have to saw into blocks and split before we could use it. We also had meat and flour, so we could spare that, but I knew we didn't have any money, so why was Pa buying them shoes and candy? Really, why was he doing any of this? Widow Jensen had closer neighbors than us. It shouldn't have been our concern.

We came in from the blind side of the Jensen house and unloaded the wood as quietly as possible, then we took the meat and flour and shoes to the door. We knocked. The door opened a crack and a timid voice said, "Who is it?" "Lucas Miles, Ma'am, and my son, Matt. Could we come in for a bit?" Widow Jensen opened the door and let us in. She had a blanket wrapped around her shoulders. The children were wrapped in another and were sitting in front of the fireplace by a very small fire that hardly gave off any heat at all. Widow Jensen fumbled with a match and finally lit the lamp. "We brought you a few things, Ma'am," Pa said and set down the sack of flour. I put the meat on the table. Then Pa handed her the sack that had the shoes in it. She opened it hesitantly and took the shoes out one pair at a time. There was a pair for her and one for each of the children---sturdy shoes, the best, shoes that would last. I watched her carefully. She bit her lower lip to keep it from trembling and then tears filled her eyes and started running down her cheeks. She looked up at Pa like she wanted to say something, but it wouldn't come out. "We brought a load of wood too, Ma'am," Pa said, then he turned to me and said, "Matt, go bring enough in to last for awhile. Let's get that fire up to size and heat this place up."

I wasn't the same person when I went back out to bring in the wood. I had a big lump in my throat and, much as I hate to admit it, there were tears in my eyes too. In my mind I kept seeing those three kids huddled around the fireplace and their mother standing there with tears running down her cheeks and so much gratitude in her heart that she couldn't speak. My heart swelled within me and a joy filled my soul that I'd never known before. I had given at Christmas many times before, but never when it had made so much difference. I could see we were literally saving the lives of these people.

I soon had the fire blazing and everyone's spirits soared. The kids started giggling when Pa handed them each a piece of candy and Widow Jensen looked on with a smile that probably hadn't crossed her face for a long time. She finally turned to us. "God bless you," she said. "I know the Lord himself has sent you. The children and I have been praying that he would send one of his angels to spare us."

In spite of myself, the lump returned to my throat and the tears welled up in my eyes again. I'd never thought of Pa in those exact terms before, but after Widow Jensen mentioned it I could see that it was probably true. I was sure that a better man than Pa had never walked the earth. I started remembering all the times he had gone out of his way for Ma and me, and many others. The list seemed endless as I thought on it.

Pa insisted that everyone try on the shoes before we left. I was amazed when they all fit and I wondered how he had known what sizes to get. Then I guessed that if he was on an errand for the Lord that the Lord would make sure he got the right sizes. Tears were running down Widow Jensen's face again when we stood up to leave. Pa took each of the kids in his big arms and gave them a hug. They clung to him and didn't want us to go. I could see that they missed their pa, and I was glad that I still had mine.

At the door Pa turned to Widow Jensen and said, "The Mrs. wanted me to invite you and the children over for Christmas dinner tomorrow. The turkey will be more than the three of us can eat, and a man can get cantankerous if he has to eat turkey for too many meals. We'll be by to get you about eleven. It'll be nice to have some little ones around again. Matt, here, hasn't been little for quite a spell." I was the youngest. My two older brothers and two older sisters were all married and had moved away. Widow Jensen nodded and said, "Thank you, Brother Miles. I don't have to say, "'May the Lord bless you,' I know for certain that He will."

Out on the sled I felt a warmth that came from deep within and I didn't even notice the cold. When we had gone a ways, Pa turned to me and said, "Matt, I want you to know something. Your ma and me have been tucking a little money away here and there all year so we could buy that rifle for you, but we didn't have quite enough. Then yesterday a man who owed me a little money from years back came by to make things square. Your ma and me were real excited, thinking that now we could get you that rifle, and I started into town this morning to do just that. But on the way I saw little Jakey out scratching in the woodpile with his feet wrapped in those gunny sacks and I knew what I had to do. So, Son, I spent the money for shoes and a little candy for those children. I hope you understand."

I understood, and my eyes became wet with tears again. I understood very well, and I was so glad Pa had done it. Just then the rifle seemed very low on my list of priorities. Pa had given me a lot more. He had given me the look on Widow Jensen's face and the radiant smiles of her three children. For the rest of my life, whenever I saw any of the Jensens, or split a block of wood, I remembered, and remembering brought back that same joy I felt riding home beside Pa that night. Pa had given me much more than a rifle that night, he had given me the best Christmas of my life.

The above story was posted with this note:

I usually try to stay on topic, please indulge me in this story today. I am very happy just to be on the planet this Christmas breathing. For those of you that don't know me, I have lung cancer and am beating it. I plan on being here next Christmas too. Warning this story will make you feel really good!
minque Wed Dec 24 2003

Slide show

Traditional Irish Blessing
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Celtic Thunder

Steal Away

"Hallelujah"

You Raise Me Up

A Place in the Choir

when is gold fully priced?

Hello Mr. Sinclair,

I have been listening to your interviews on King World News. My father and I have thoroughly enjoyed them and have learned volumes. I wish to extend my complements to you on your unprecedented ability to understand and explain the complex financial situation that our world faces.

There is a question I would like to ask you about the current bull market in gold that you say we are in. As all bull markets eventually end, my question to you is not, "if" there will come a day to take profits, but when to take profits and what to do with those profits. For example, I would think of myself as a bad investor to ride the gold market from its lows clear up to its highs and back down to its lows again. If gold goes to $2,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 dollars per ounce at what point should one sell the physical metal? Hypothetically if gold were to go to $5,000 dollars per ounce or achieve a 1:1 price ratio with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, does one actually sell the physical coin for U.S. dollars (knowing the U.S. dollar is just another fiat currency)? Should one wait for an alternative currency to arise and sell the physical metal for that currency?

I hope I have been clear in what I am asking. Basically if one is holding wealth in gold/silver at what point does one take profits, and what does one roll those profits into at the end of the bull market in gold/silver? You might think my question premature as there are possibly years left in this bull market in gold, but I don’t want to be the last man standing who just watched the bull market profits disappear. (I call to your attention the gold price action of the 1980s when gold soared to $800 per ounce only to settle for the next decade between $200-$300.)

I would appreciate any advice and insight you might have.

CIGA Luke

Dear Luke,

You have presented the most difficult of questions. Last evening, I answered that via a graph of emotions that finds tops, but not necessarily with the definition of the long term top appended.

I do not think a ratio to the Dow is the answer.

The model answer is when gold sells (per ounce) at the value that equals the total dollar value of US foreign debt divided by the assumed number of ounces of gold the US government has, gold is full priced.

The reason for that is because at that price the international balance sheet of the USA and therefore the dollar is in balance. However, that number, which was $900 in 1980, is now slightly above $12,400.

If grouping of cycles is of any use time wise, that suggests 2015.

Regards,
Jim

jsmineset.com

gold - most manipulated market

Much of the recent bearishness is based on primary school TA, a broken trend line of a triangle that moved almost to its apex and the 200 day MA.

The best long term market predictor that I know may well not be the best short or medium term trader. People need to stay within the bounds of what they are historically best at.

Gold is the most manipulated market on the planet. Painting charts to accumulate has been a fact since 2003. China is a master painter of the world cash gold chart. That is why in this entire gold bull market every major up move in gold has been proceeded by a horrid technical formation or break that reversed out of nowhere.

If a simple trend line breaks or 200 day moving averages were consistently good, everyone would be a billionaire.

Next week could surprise the bears in gold.

I would not, now, be stampeded by a great long term predictor’s short term outlook or a fellow who screams, dances, blows whistles, and horns when reporting on markets who recently declared the gold bull market dead for the second time in a year.

The first declaration was hardly a death.

Regards,

Jim

jsmineset.com

Also, this gold comment from Peter Grandich (Dec 19, 2011)

great sacred music from SE Samonte

God Will Take Care of You 3:32 / 23,148 views
- sung by the Antrim Mennonite Choir
- an SE Samonte video

Softly and Tenderly 4:31 / 95,125 views
- sung by Altar of Praise Chorale
- an SE Samonte video

Yes, I Know 3:18 / 70,833 views
- sung by The Mountain Anthems
- an SE Samonte video

Playlist of Anabaptist-Mennonite music from SE Samonte
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Seasonality DJIA

timingthemarket.ca

A short term peak in early January

· Favourable anticipation of fourth quarter results

A brief correction into February

· Triggered partially by negative earnings guidance related to currency translation by international companies

· More political turbulence in Europe and the U.S.

· Increasing political rhetoric by Iran

A recovery into April

· Mildly improving economic news in North America and first signs of a bottoming in Far East economies (particularly China).

· Talk of Quantitative Easing (QE 3)

A significant correction into May

· Political rhetoric in the U.S. ramps up when the Republican presidential candidate becomes apparent. Economic uncertainty increase due to questions about future direction of the next Administration.

· Recognition of a slow-down in corporate earnings growth in the first and second quarters

A significant recovery from June to August

· The recovery in the Far East (particularly China) becomes more apparent. Commodity prices and related stocks move higher.

· If equity markets perceive that President Obama is to behttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif replaced by the Republican candidate, corporate spending in North America starts to ramp up. Investors begin to anticipate strong economic growth in 2013. If markets perceive a re-election of Obama, a mid-year recovery is weak at best.

A brief correction into October if replacement of Obama is over-anticipated

· Also “End of world” jitters similar to the correction in October 2000 before Y2K

Higher equity market following the Presidential election on the first Tuesday in November regardless of who wins the Presidency

· Investors move into sectors that will benefit from the President’s new mandate

Metro Atlanta Gospel Music Convention

"WHERE MILK AND HONEY FLOWS"

"I KNOW MY NAME IS THERE"

"I'M LIVING IN CANAAN NOW"

"AT CALVARY"

"AT THE CROSS"

"WHEN WE ALL GET TO HEAVEN"

"JESUS, HOLD MY HAND"

"VICTORY IN JESUS"


"I NEVER SHALL FORGET THE DAY"

"SOME DAY"

"WON'T IT BE WONDERFUL THERE?"

"THE OLD RUGGED CROSS"

"I'VE NEVER BEEN SORRY"

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Buy Silver...Now! - Daily Reckoning

image source

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Teddy Bear

Teddy Bear by Red Sovine

teddy bears last ride

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Steve Goodman

Fourteen Days

You Never Even Call Me By My Name

I am My Own Grandpa

Banana Republic

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Volatility and Risk

Volatility Does Not Equal Risk
Written by Jeff Nielson Wednesday, 28 September 2011

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