“A big barn and a plump wife, and a man is fixed up good for life” ~ Amish saying
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Friday, August 21, 2015
Saturday, December 06, 2014
The Coming One World Currency
Martin Armstrong writing from May 2009
(Cdn dollar page 17)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/one-world-currency-509.pdf
(Cdn dollar page 17)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/one-world-currency-509.pdf
Friday, November 07, 2014
Brookfield (BAM) seasonality
Monday, November 03, 2014
Thoughts from Peter Grandich
Source: http://moneytalks.net//peters-content/13785-election-eve-thought.html
Here are six Conundrums of socialism in the United States of America:
1. America is capitalist and greedy - yet half of the population is subsidized.
2. Half of the population is subsidized - yet they think they are victims.
3. They think they are victims - yet their representatives run the government.
4. Their representatives run the government - yet the poor keep getting poorer.
5. The poor keep getting poorer - yet they have things that people in other countries only dream about.
6. They have things that people in other countries only dream about - yet they want America to be more like those other countries.
These three, short sentences tell you a lot about the direction of our current socialist government and cultural environment:
1. We are advised to NOT judge ALL Muslims by the actions of a few lunatics, but we are encouraged to judge ALL gun owners by the actions of a few lunatics.
Funny how that works. And here's another one worth considering...
2. Seems we constantly hear about how Social Security is going to run out of money. But we never hear about welfare or food stamps running out of money? What's interesting is the first group "worked for" their money, but the second didn't.
Think about it.....and Last but not least,
3. Why are we cutting benefits for our veterans, no pay raises for our military and cutting our army to a level lower than before WWII, but we are not stopping the payments or benefits to illegal aliens.
Am I the only one missing something?
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Delisting from Toronto Stock Exchange
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/my-shares-are-worthless-now-what/article16287668/
Can a taxpayer claim a capital loss when a stock plummets in value and then is delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange? I bought a small amount of a mining stock a while back and it’s now worthless, but I didn’t sell the stock and so I assume I am out of luck when it comes to claiming a capital loss.
Good news: Even though you didn’t sell the shares before they were delisted, you still may be able to claim a capital loss – either now or in the future – depending on the status of the company.
According to Section 50(1) of the Income Tax Act, there are three scenarios in which a loss can be claimed:
the company went bankrupt during the year
the company is insolvent and subject to a “winding-up order”
the company is insolvent; it no longer carries on business; the fair market value of the shares is nil; and “it is reasonable to expect that the corporation will be dissolved or wound up and will not commence to carry on business.”
If one of the above three situations applies, the investor can deem to have disposed of the stock at the end of the year “for proceeds equal to nil and to have re-acquired it immediately after the end of the year at a cost equal to nil,” the Income Tax Act states.
Why the bit about reacquiring the shares for nil?
Well, if the shares happen to increase in value at a later date (unlikely, but not impossible), the investor could potentially realize a capital gain and have to pay tax.
According to a TD Waterhouse bulletin, because there is no form for making a Section 50(1) election, investors should attach a signed letter to the tax return stating that they want Section 50(1) to apply to the shares. “For returns that are electronically filed, all elections and supporting documentation must be submitted in writing,” TD Waterhouse says in the bulletin (available at tinyurl.com/kpoy2sg).
Your broker may be able to facilitate an even simpler solution. For investors holding delisted (and presumably worthless) stock, some financial institutions will agree to purchase the shares for a token amount (a penny per share, for example) and then charge the client a nominal fee so that the net cost to both parties is zero.
“This allows the client to use the transaction slip from the sale for tax purposes,” TD Waterhouse says.
“It is important to understand the potential downside of utilizing this procedure: If the ‘worthless security’ ever revives itself and becomes relisted and tradable, you would have given up all ownership rights by selling the shares to the financial institution.”
When I asked my own discount broker, BMO InvestorLine, about its procedure, I was told that delisted shares can be disposed of using a “deed of gift” form. Essentially, the client agrees to give the broker the worthless shares and the disposition appears in the client’s transaction history with a value of zero. This provides a record that can be used to claim the loss for tax purposes.
BMO’s deed of gift form states that it is the investor’s “responsibility to determine whether the gift of the securities constitutes a disposition within the Income Tax Act (Canada) which would allow the donor(s) to realize a capital loss.”
So take heart: If the company you own goes bust, you can still claim a loss on the shares even if there is no market for them.
If I may leave you with one other piece of advice: Try to invest only in stable, profitable companies with a history of paying dividends. That will reduce the chances of finding yourself in a similar situation again.
Follow John Heinzl on Twitter: @johnheinzl
Thursday, June 12, 2014
How Stoopid of ME
I've learned that changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do. It is far easier to fool yourself into believing a falsehood than admit a mistake.
I've learned that people are terrible at predicting their own emotions. You will be more fearful when the market is crashing and more greedy when it is surging than you think.
I've learned that strong political beliefs in either direction limit your ability to make rational decisions more than almost anything else.
I've learned that short-term thinking is at the root of most of our problems, whether it's in business, politics, investing, or work.
I've learned that debt can cause more social problems than some drugs, yet drugs are illegal and debt is tax deductible.
I've learned that finance is actually very simple, but it's made to look complicated to justify fees.
-more can be found here: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/11/im-just-now-realizing-how-stupid-we-are.aspx
Monday, February 10, 2014
Mining Report
Gold miners to slash reserves as price drop forces revision
Written by Rachelle Younglai – Mining Report for The Globe & Mail
Monday, 10 February 2014 10:16
After years of costly mistakes, the new chief executives of Barrick Gold Corp. and Kinross Gold Corp. have ushered in an era of austerity in the precious metal sector.
The results of their labour will be on display when Canadian mining companies report fourth-quarter earnings this week.
Investors are already expecting gold producers to reduce their bullion reserves, write down more assets and record lower profits.
But the bad news may soon be ending with companies adjusting to the lower gold price.
“The worst is over,” said John Ing, president of investment firm Maison Placements Canada Inc. in Toronto.
That doesn’t mean the picture will be pretty this quarter.
Barrick CEO Jamie Sokalsky told investors that the company will use a $1,100 (U.S.) price to calculate its unmined gold. That is down sharply from the $1,500 price assumption used to calculate last year’s reserves.
That could slash more than 10 per cent from the miner’s stockpile of 140 million ounces of gold in the ground, which is equivalent to 20 years of production at the current rate of seven million ounces per year.
Toronto-based Barrick will also record another writedown on its troubled Pascua Lama mine in the Andes and likely take additional impairment charges on mines that have become too expensive to run.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. of Toronto is expected to cut its reserves after using a $1,490 price assumption for its mines that have a shorter life.
Vancouver-based Goldcorp Inc., too, is also expected to cut its reserves.
Kinross may record another write down on one of its mines. And fellow Toronto-based miner Iamgold Corp. has said it will produce less gold at higher costs.
But investors have been warned and now they want to ensure that companies follow through on plans to bolster their financial position.
“We’re going to be looking for material improvement on the cost side,” said Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings, who has spent years investing in natural resources.
Gold producers spent last year learning to live with the falling bullion price.
The yellow metal is now trading around $1,250 an ounce compared with $1,700 last year, squeezing margins and requiring companies to overhaul operations.
Miners that used to spend as much as $1,400 to dig up an ounce of gold have had to find ways to cut production costs. “The alternative is that they begin to go extinct,” Mr. Rule said.
Barrick and Kinross, two companies that have been badly wounded by high-priced acquisitions, took some of the most aggressive measures to rein in expenses.
Kinross CEO Paul Rollinson reduced capital expenditures to below $1-billion this year and has repeatedly said the miner will not expand its problematic Tasiast mine in the Mauritanian desert unless it is economical.
Barrick halted construction at Pascua Lama and raised $3-billion to pay down debt.
Iamgold reduced capital expenditures, exploration and its dividend.
RBC Dominion Securities said companies will see benefits if they can improve their cash flow and show that they are disciplined with their capital. “Those with deteriorating balance sheets are likely to struggle to attract investor attention,” RBC said in a research note.
In a sign that investors are getting comfortable with the weaker gold price and are starting to reward companies for austerity measures, the gold mining index is up 16 per cent so far this year, outperforming the bullion price, which is up 5 per cent over the same time period.
Last year, the index dropped 47 per cent, while the price of gold fell about 30 per cent.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/gold-miners-to-slash-reserves-as-price-drop-forces-revision/article16770442/
Monday, January 13, 2014
Martin Armstrong
Some notes from a Martin Armstrong interview on November 2, 2013
Interview conducted by Michael Campbell and broadcast on CKNW.
* we need to see gold under $1,000 to get the perma-bulls bearish
* to turn gold we need to see interest rates start rising
* long term, gold will run up into 2032
* if gold goes below $1,000 in early 2014, that will be the low
* worst case - gold will make the low in 2015
* next crisis will likely be pension funds; starting late 2015 going into '17 - '18
* risk of gov't seizing all pension funds
* expect short term correction in stocks
* major high in stock market mid to late 2015; correction after that
* sizable rally of 50% and possibly a double
(prior to this interview the SPX high was 1775 in October 2013)
* short term the commodity bull is over; production needs to be reduced at the bottom in order to set up for the next cycle. Next cycle for commodity boom will largely be after 2016
Interview conducted by Michael Campbell and broadcast on CKNW.
Labels:
commodities,
gold,
Martin Armstrong
Friday, January 10, 2014
Thursday, January 09, 2014
golf
An actual sign posted at a golf club in Scotland.
1. BACK STRAIGHT, KNEES BENT, FEET SHOULDER WIDTH APART.
2. FORM A LOOSE GRIP.
3. KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN!
4. AVOID A QUICK BACK SWING.
5. STAY OUT OF THE WATER.
6. TRY NOT TO HIT ANYONE.
7. IF YOU ARE TAKING TOO LONG, LET OTHERS GO AHEAD OF YOU.
8. DON'T STAND DIRECTLY IN FRONT OF OTHERS.
9. QUIET PLEASE...WHILE OTHERS ARE PREPARING.
10. DON'T TAKE EXTRA STROKES.
WELL DONE... NOW, FLUSH THE URINAL, WASH YOUR HANDS AND GO OUTSIDE, AND TEE OFF.
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1. BACK STRAIGHT, KNEES BENT, FEET SHOULDER WIDTH APART.
2. FORM A LOOSE GRIP.
3. KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN!
4. AVOID A QUICK BACK SWING.
5. STAY OUT OF THE WATER.
6. TRY NOT TO HIT ANYONE.
7. IF YOU ARE TAKING TOO LONG, LET OTHERS GO AHEAD OF YOU.
8. DON'T STAND DIRECTLY IN FRONT OF OTHERS.
9. QUIET PLEASE...WHILE OTHERS ARE PREPARING.
10. DON'T TAKE EXTRA STROKES.
WELL DONE... NOW, FLUSH THE URINAL, WASH YOUR HANDS AND GO OUTSIDE, AND TEE OFF.
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Monday, October 21, 2013
Five things GIC investors need to know
by Rob Carrick
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/five-things-you-should-know-about-gics/article14935982/#dashboard/follows/
Owning guaranteed investment certificates is kind of like watching paint dry.
That’s the point, right? Zero drama.
But the lack of excitement with GICs also works against them. Although there are some ins and outs to GIC investing, they get little attention in an investing universe that cares mainly about stocks and bonds. Let’s fix that, with a list of five things GIC investors need to know.
1. Credit unions are beating the banks
McVay and Associates, a consultant to the financial industry, says bank market share for GICs has fallen by 4.6 per cent over the past five years, with credit unions benefiting most and trust/mortgage loan companies next. Banks aren’t competing much on rates, and so investors are increasingly going elsewhere.
Big bank five-year GICs were going for 1.75 to 2.3 per cent this week; credit unions, trust companies and online alternative banks were widely offering at least half a percentage point more. Unless they offer premium rates, small players like credit unions have trouble competing against banks in the GIC business. Keep in mind that money raised through the sales of GICs is lent out in the form of mortgages. Without a brisk GIC business, a lender can’t be a player in mortgages.
McVay and Associates says the two financial institutions making the biggest gains in GICs are Home Trust and Equitable Bank, both of which are mortgage lenders. Home Trust was advertising a 2.9-per-cent rate on its website this week, while Equitable Bank offered 2.91 per cent.
2. Not all deposit insurance plans are created equal
Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. is a federal Crown corporation that protects member bank and trust company deposits for up to $100,000, including GICs with terms of five years or less. Find a list of CDIC members online at cdic.ca/Pages/Members.aspx.
Credit unions have their own provincial deposit insurance plans and they vary in how they operate. Of particular interest is the plan in Manitoba, where several credit unions operate online banking divisions offering premium rates on GICs and high interest savings accounts. Examples are AcceleRate Financial, operated by Crosstown Civic Credit Union; Achieva Financial, operated by Cambrian Credit Union; and, Hubert Financial, run by Sunova Credit Union.
The Deposit Guarantee Corp. of Manitoba (DGCM) exceeds CDIC by providing unlimited protection of deposits at credit unions and their online banking divisions. But because DGCM is not part of the Manitoba government, the strength of the protection it offers is not quite at the level of the federally backed CDIC. Note that your deposits in Manitoba credit unions are protected regardless of what province you live in.
When selling GICs from Manitoba-based credit unions, deposit broker GIC Wealth Management takes special steps to ensure clients understand their deposit insurance. “We have them acknowledge and sign a waiver that it isn’t government-insured,” said Brandon Brot, a partner at the firm.
If you’re considering a GIC from any credit union, visit its website first to check out the details of its deposit insurance plan. Some of these plans – Ontario and Alberta, for example – are provincial government agencies or have government backing.
3. Deposit brokers can get you top rates
Deposit brokers offer much the same type of service as mortgage brokers – they survey a wide range of financial firms for the best rates available and they handle the paperwork for you. Deposit brokers are paid directly by GIC sellers and their compensation is pegged to the amount invested and the term. Customers of deposit brokers pay nothing out of pocket.
Here’s an example of why consulting a broker is worthwhile. Early this week, the brokers at GIC Wealth Management were offering five-year GICs in the 3.15-per-cent range from Home Trust. That’s a better rate than Home Trust advertised on its website.
Mr. Brot, of GIC Wealth, said financial companies looking to raise funds will sometimes reach out to brokers with special rate offers. “Any broker who has been around for quite some time usually has relationships with the institutions.”
Mr. Brot said his firm deals with about 40 different financial institutions. When clients invest $25,000 or more, the firm will make house calls to pick up and deliver documents.
You can find a deposit broker near you using a search engine offered by the Registered Deposit Brokers Association.
4. Deposit brokers are primarily salespeople
The RDBA administers a few designations for the industry, including the Registered Deposit Broker (RDB). But unless a broker has additional accreditation like the certified financial planner (CFP) or registered financial planner (RFP), it’s best to regard him or her as a seller of GICs and not as a financial adviser.
When handing money over to a broker, be sure it’s in the form of a cheque made out to the financial firm you’re investing with. Ultimately, you’re a customer of that firm, not the broker. “If we were to go out of business tomorrow, it wouldn’t impact you because you have a certificate directly with your institution,” Mr. Brot said.
The online broker GIC bid.com works along the same lines – it matches you with the best rate offered by the 10 or so financial firms it works with and then leaves it up to the bank, trust or credit union to finalize the investment with the client.
5. Insurance company GICs are worth a look
Sometimes called guaranteed interest accounts (GIAs), insurance company GICs offer competitive interest rates and an estate planning benefit that makes them particularly attractive to seniors.
Mr. Brot said that upon death, the proceeds from a GIA would be paid directly and without penalty to a designated beneficiary. This money would not be part of the deceased person’s estate, and it would not be subject to probate, legal and other legal estate fees. Should you want to discreetly leave money to someone after you die, GIAs are an option.
If an insurer is a member of Assuris, the policyholder protection agency for the insurance industry, its GIA deposits are covered for amounts up to $100,000.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/five-things-you-should-know-about-gics/article14935982/#dashboard/follows/
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Thursday, May 16, 2013
The Global-Warming Panic Is a Distant Memory
By Robert Prechter, editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how-to-spot-a-market-top
A non-event that recently had the media buzzing was the dearth of discussion of the global-warming issue during the presidential debates, not to mention nearly everywhere else on earth over the past year.
This is another social change predicted in The Elliott Wave Theorist in the face of vicious opposition. This excerpt highlights the key points:
Sometimes scientists herd as much as investors do, and this study [by NASA] appears to be a case of extreme expression following a long-established trend. I am not a climatologist, but I am a student of manias and herding, and that is what the global-warming craze appears to be about.
My purpose here is not primarily to make a case against man-made global warming. My primary intent is to take a look at the question from the point of view of a social psychologist to decide whether it appears to be the result of hysteria. The points above establish that there are two sides to the global-warming question. Yet only one has captured the public's imagination (and I choose that word consciously). The global-warming scare is highly reminiscent of the Alar scare, in which Congress called upon the expertise of movie stars; the ozone-depletion scare and the acid-rain scare, which have all but vanished; the claim that pesticides were making frogs lame (it turned out to be a virus); the rash of reports of devil worshippers, who were never found; the national child-care molestation hysteria, which turned out to be almost entirely contrived; the panic in Europe over poison in Coca-Cola; and any number of like manias. Hysteria often signals the end of a trend.
There is powerful evidence of herding at the social level on the global-warming issue. Commentary on the subject is even selling theater tickets. And like all past social trends that were ending, there is a rush to extrapolate. The temperature data from which modelers at NASA derive their extrapolations are scant, the projection is extreme, and their tone is strident. When any writers, including scientists, extrapolate 29 years' worth of temperature data to predict an imminent apocalypse of biblical proportions in an environment of waxing social focus, rising panic, and calls for government obstruction, one must acknowledge the likelihood of social-psychological forces behind such a report and investigate whether the data support the prediction.
The crowd fearing global warming rejects as heretics professors and scientists who challenge all these methods and conclusions, whether they be at MIT or Stanford. Such rejection is akin to what happens near the end of a financial mania, such as the peak of the real estate mania [in 2005], when bears were dismissed as delusional.
GW advocates told me that doubting man-made global warming is akin to denying evolution, but the GW movement has not a little taste of old-time religion in its accompanying admonition of humanity: Man is evil; he is destroying the earth; he is "fouling his own nest," as one scientist on the Web says. Scientists are usually good at their fields but not necessarily at recognizing their own political, moral, and philosophical biases.
One thoughtful scientist took issue with the term "hysteria." But the term applies here to social activity, not the overt behavior of any particular individual. In 2005, when I was speaking about real estate hysteria and warning people against investing in property, people sporting a rather bemused expression would coolly respond, as if instructing an alien who lacked understanding of the way things worked on Earth, "They are not making any more land" and "It's all about location." They would say this with utmost calm. They had thought about it and sifted through the evidence. They were not hysterical but rational and thoughtful. At least, this was the appearance of behavior at the individual level. At the collective level, something else was going on. The number of people participating in the real estate market was unprecedented, and their borrowing, building, and bidding activities, collectively, were extreme.
Advocates of man-made global warming may appear sober as judges individually, but they are participating in a mass movement, complete with press releases, student rallies, pop concerts, movie documentaries, and an underlying tone of moral crusade.
I think the current frenzy over the subject is probably a symptom of peaking cycles in both climatic temperature and social psychology. But unfortunately 70 years from now most of us won't be around to know the answer. What I expect, based upon observing mass movements, is that this fear, too, will go away.
–The Elliott Wave Theorist, June and July 2007
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how-to-spot-a-market-top
Sunday, April 07, 2013
waltzing matilda
"Waltzing Matilda" is Australia's most widely known bush ballad. A country folk song, the song has been referred to as "the unofficial national anthem of Australia".
The title is Australian slang for travelling by foot with one's goods (waltzing, derived from the German auf der Walz) in a "Matilda" (bag) slung over one's back. The song narrates the story of an itinerant worker, or "swagman", making a drink of tea at a bush camp and capturing a sheep to eat. When the sheep's owner arrives with three police officers to arrest the worker for the theft, the worker commits suicide by drowning himself in the nearby watering hole, after which his ghost haunts the site.
The original lyrics were written in 1895 by poet and nationalist Banjo Paterson. It was first published as sheet music in 1903. Extensive folklore surrounds the song and the process of its creation, to the extent that the song has its own museum, the Waltzing Matilda Centre in Winton, Queensland. In 2012, to remind Australians of the song's significance, Winton organised the inaugural Waltzing Matilda Day to be held on 6 April, the anniversary of its first performance.
The song was first recorded in 1926 as performed by John Collinson and Russell Callow. In 2008, this recording of "Waltzing Matilda" was added to the "Sounds of Australia Registry" in the National Film and Sound Archive which says that there are more recordings of "Waltzing Matilda" than any other Australian song. ~quoted from: Wiki dot org ~waltzing matilda
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgLtzD6JxcA
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Saturday, March 30, 2013
Blood Red the Sun
A lesson in bartering, and having the correct currency to barter with.
During the Frog Lake massacre, April 2, 1885 two white women were taken captive. In his book “Blood Red the Sun”, author William Bleasdell Cameron who was at the scene, writes how Adolphus Nolin, a French/Cree Metis set out to save the first woman.
“Blood Red the Sun” can be read here. I quoted from “The rescue of the white women”.
http://www.ourroots.ca/toc.aspx?id=12317&qryID=9997125b-b4db-456e-8b75-c3fb3dd1e180
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During the Frog Lake massacre, April 2, 1885 two white women were taken captive. In his book “Blood Red the Sun”, author William Bleasdell Cameron who was at the scene, writes how Adolphus Nolin, a French/Cree Metis set out to save the first woman.
“From other Indians he learned that one of the women was in the lodge of Manichoos, a murderer of the morning, with his Cree wives. Nolin lifted the lodge-flap and entered. He barely glanced at the captive cowering there, dazed by shock and grief, her face deadly pale, her wide eyes mirroring the horror that had overwhelmed her when her beloved husband had fallen dying at her side. It would not answer for the half-breed to appear as the friend of the stricken moonias isquayo. That might jeopardize them both. Instead he said casually in Cree:- end quote.
“I see you have a white wife now.”
The Indian nodded. “Uh-huh.” He tried hard not to show his elation.
“You are lucky,” Nolin remarked. “Now, look at me, a man part white yet I have no white wife, nor could I get one. No wonder you feel proud.”
Manichoos continued to dissemble; he raised a deprecating hand. “No; it is nothing; I am not proud. What is a wife, more or less, to me? If you want a white wife, buy this woman here.”
Nolin shook his head. “No. I could not buy your woman. You would ask too much. I am poor.”
“She is not young, neither is she pretty,” Manichoos commented. “I would not ask much – two horses, maybe.”
Nolin clapped a hand over his mouth. “There! I knew I could not buy her. Two horses! That is a fearful price. I have only one horse. I will pay that for her.”
Manichoos was not in the mood to haggle. “Two horses,” he insisted stolidly.
Nolin rose. “Tesqua. Wait a little. Perhaps I can get another horse.” Leaving, he spoke for the first time to the captive. “Take courage! You shan't be harmed. I'll be back and you'll be taken away from this cur.” He hurried back to Pritchard. “It's Mrs. Delaney, Johnny. Manichoos has her. He wants two horses for her and won't look at my pony.”
Pritchard's answer was prompt. “Take one of mine; I've two. And don't lose any time getting her over here. He might change his mind. Or one of the other swine might buy her.”
“Blood Red the Sun” can be read here. I quoted from “The rescue of the white women”.
http://www.ourroots.ca/toc.aspx?id=12317&qryID=9997125b-b4db-456e-8b75-c3fb3dd1e180
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Sunday, March 24, 2013
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Markets, gold, bonds
Jim welcomes back noted technician Charles Nenner this week. Charles sees a new stock market high into late April or early May. He also sees the economy picking up until the end of the year, but risk is also rising as well. Charles sees late April as a high risk period for the markets in terms of a correction. He is also very bearish on bond funds, and urges investors to get out of them as soon as possible. Charles is also out of gold in the short term, as he sees a rally in the US dollar ahead.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/2013/03/16/charles-nenner/bond-funds-get-out-while-you-can
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Labels:
Charles Nenner,
gold,
predictions
Friday, November 23, 2012
5i Research - opinion on gold
November 22, 2012 (asked by Lance)
www.5iresearch.ca
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Question: Hi Peter: Portfolio questions about Gold:
In your view, is it necessary to maintain gold exposure all the time (given that the portfolio is small enough to maintain reasonable liquidity and allow one to be nimble) or is it something that one can move in and out of depending on how things are going?
In either case, what signs would cause you to increase/decrease exposure?
On a percentage of total investments basis, how much gold exposure do you think is appropriate at present and how high or how low could you see that going over the next few years?
Can one's gold exposure be expected to provide a good ROI, even if the various things it is supposed to hedge against aren't materializing over the next few years?
Finally, what category of gold investments would you favour to provide both the hedge/insurance aspect and a decent prospect of a return in the meantime. Thanks!
5i Research Answer:
We will answer in order of the questions.
(1) Unless you can time exactly when gold will spike (we can't!) we would always have some gold exposure. It is like insurance. You wouldn't take insurance off your house and then back on again.
(2) We would increase gold exposure on signs of (a) a rollover in the world economy. At this stage, if the ecomomy weakens further, there is only one option for governments :keep printing currency and spending. Any other option would be too dire for the economy to handle. (b) any increase in money velocity. Not to go into economics, but right now there is lots of cash in the system. However, inflation is low because no one is 'worried' about inflation enough to start lending, spending, hiring, and getting rid of cash (which would decline in value in inflation). If banks start lending aggressively, asset prices increase and so on, then that cash in the system will start moving fast, and inflation (and gold) will likely go up. We are, however, not near that point right now, but there is so much liquidity in the world in could happen before we expect it.
3) We would suggest 10% to 15% gold exposure now, going as high as 20% to 25% if and when inflation kicks in. Under an ideal gold scenario, however, your percentage would get higher quickly from 10% without further additional buying.
(4) We would not 'expect' much from gold in terms of ROI. But it will do exceptionally well under the right conditions, and as insurance needs to be there.
(5) Right now, we would buy senior gold companies paying dividends. They will do well under the right conditions, are far less risky than trying to pick a junior, and will provide some degree of income while we wait for inflation to kick in.
www.5iresearch.ca
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Sunday, October 14, 2012
“Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid”.
Chapter 8 - Drowning Again
http://www.grandich.com/2012/10/a-debilitating-illness-few-will-still-openly-talk-about/
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http://www.grandich.com/2012/10/a-debilitating-illness-few-will-still-openly-talk-about/
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