idiot savant

Doug Casey dispels about 20 common reasons not to own gold. Of course, one reason is that Warren Buffett is a huge gold bear. Here is Doug’s excellent response to this view:

This is true, but irrelevant – entirely apart from suffering from the logical fallacy called “argument from authority.” But, nonetheless, when the world’s most successful investor speaks, it’s worth listening. Here's what Buffett recently said about gold in an interview with Ben Stein, another goldphobe: "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all – not some, all – of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

I’ve long considered Buffett an idiot savant – a genius at buying stocks but at nothing else. His statement is quite accurate, but completely meaningless. The same could be said of the U.S. dollar money supply – or even of the world inventory of steel and copper. These things represent potential but are not businesses or productive assets in themselves. Buffett is certainly not stupid, but he’s a shameless and intellectually dishonest sophist. And although a great investor, he’s neither an economist or someone who believes in free markets. ~Casey's Daily Dispatch 2011-0331

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Reasons NOT to buy a house

NOTE: this is copyrighted material ... do not link.

Housing as an Investment
By Vedran Vuk

Here’s an interesting video on Yahoo!Finance of James Altucher from Formula Capital discussing home ownership as an investment. I don’t agree with a lot of his points, but a few are really great insights. Previously, I’ve compared buying a house to investing in the stock market, but Altucher takes it one step further. He notes that buying a house is essentially the opposite of diversifying your portfolio. In very few cases would anyone want to place so much weight on one sector. Second, if an investor wants to play the real estate market, there’s no need to actually purchase properties; the stock market exists for a reason.

Another intriguing point was the use of leverage. One of his interviewers asks what about the people who bought a house for $20,000 in 1970 and made a fortune today. Altucher comes back by saying, well, what if an investor utilized the same amount of leverage to purchase the S&P 500 in 1970. They would have also done really well, if not better.

And third, he points out the risk of owning a home on job mobility. Not only are homes illiquid, but the worse times get, the more illiquid a house becomes. You essentially trap yourself at the worst possible moment. I know a lot of readers underwater on their mortgages are feeling this pain.

However, one of the interviewers makes an interesting point that housing is the only way to get some folks to buy and hold, an interesting thought also.

~Casey's Daily Dispatch 2011-0330

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Hubbartt

Latest update from Morris Hubbartt

USD index 75.90: new lows coming in 2011
Previous lows were:
75.25 March 22, 2011
74.23 November 2009
71.31 July 2008

US citizens: "imagine food and gas at triple the current prices".

Gold 1,432: increase buying toward 1,350
Long term target 4,000

GDXJ 39.00: (taking profits) one year target is 75

GDX 60.00: (taking profits) strong support 55 to 53
one year target is 72

SIVR 37.25: (taking profits) buy zone 33 to 31

Hubbartt's peek

Morris Hubbartt has a gold and stock market update; dated March 18

Main points of interest:

> gold to 1,325 possible (now 1,418)
> GDXJ retest 34.00 to 32.50 (now 36.90)
> GDX retest 55.00 to 52.50 (now 56.66)
> SIVR buy zone: 33.25 to 31.00 (now 34.97)
> SPY: very weak and going lower (now 127.76)
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Billy

Billy Andrusco - Latin Afternoon - Made By Els.
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music

"HOW BIG IS GOD" - featuring: Big John Hall

Big John Hall - The Lighthouse

Wouldn't Take Northin' For My Journey Now (Gaither group)

Who Am I - Gatlin Brothers featuring Tanya Goodman-Sykes
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Cycles

I believe the following quote is in reference to Martin Armstrong's cycles work which pinpoints June 2011 as an important turning point.

Cycles are analyzed by comparing their message to what the market is doing. Cycles are not commands from on high dictating to the markets what they must do.

The answer is what is happening now in the market versus what the cycles call for. The cycle calling for gold to decline into June of 2011 was cancelled by the market’s action of blowing through $1372 and never looking back.

The importance of this analytical approach is that it says without any doubt that the gold price is stronger than any accepted commentator believes.

The normal suspects will throw their blocks, but I assure you at only a waste of good money. The price we have spoken about for a long period $1650 will be low. ~Jim Sinclair

Jesse Livermore

For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never go broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

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Kingston Trio

... the late 1950s hit song by the Kingston Trio "They’re rioting in Africa, there's strife in Iran" ... still works today.

A couple jokes from Bob at the beginning of this one.
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mistaken rapture

ARKANSAS CITY (EAP) -- A Little Rock woman was killed yesterday after leaping through her moving car's sun roof during an incident best described as "a mistaken rapture" by dozens of eye witnesses.

Thirteen other people were injured after a twenty-car pile up resulted from people trying to avoid hitting the woman who was apparently convinced that the rapture was occurring when she saw twelve people floating up into the air, and then passed a man on the side of the road who she claimed was Jesus.

"She started screaming "He's back, He's back" and climbed right out of the sunroof and jumped off the roof of the car," said Everet Williams, husband of 28-year-old Georgann Williams who was pronounced dead at the scene.

"I was slowing down but she wouldn't wait till I stopped," Williams said. "She thought the rapture was happening and was convinced that Jesus was gonna lift her up into the sky," he went on to say.

"This is the strangest thing I've seen since I've been on the force," said
Paul Madison, first officer on the scene. Madison questioned the man who looked like Jesus and discovered that he was dressed up as Jesus and was on his way to a toga costume party when the tarp covering the bed of his pickup truck came loose and released twelve blow up sex dolls filled with helium which floated up into the air.

Ernie Jenkins, 32, of Fort Smith, who's been told by several of his friends that he looks like Jesus, pulled over and lifted his arms into the air in frustration, and said "Come back here," just as the Williams' car passed him, and Mrs. Williams was sure that it was Jesus lifting people up into the sky as they passed by him, according to her husband, who says his wife loved Jesus more than anything else.

When asked for comments about the twelve sex dolls, Jenkins replied "This is all just too weird for me. I never expected anything like this to happen."

Making corruption your friend

Strict laws, strictly enforced, is a recipe for paralysis. I've often said that while Mexico is much less free than the U.S. on paper, it is much more free in fact. People in the U.S. fear their government, especially the IRS. In Mexico, people build what they want, eat what they want, sell what they want – tax-evasion is the national pastime. ~Louis James; conversations with Casey - Making Corruption Your Friend, part 1

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OIL (wtic) $87 today

> a monthly close above $100 = higher prices to come

> May/June and Oct/Nov 2011 are important turning points

> 2015.75 (Sep 30) is turning point of next wave

> $200 a likely high; $300 not out of the question

> US$ decline will play major role in commodity price increases

Martin Armstrong - An Islamic Revolution
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dog and deer

link to video
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the following video presented with special thanks to Kate
It Doesn't Sound Like You Have Much Respect For Women
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spelling chequer

Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.

Wikipedia
...

Occam's Razor

"One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything"

Occam’s razor is a logical principle attributed to the mediaeval philosopher William of Occam (or Ockham). The principle states that one should not make more assumptions than the minimum needed. This principle is often called the principle of parsimony. It underlies all scientific modelling and theory building. It admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one. In any given model, Occam’s razor helps us to "shave off" those concepts, variables or constructs that are not really needed to explain the phenomenon. By doing that, developing the model will become much easier, and there is less chance of introducing inconsistencies, ambiguities and redundancies.

Occam’s Razor and the Gold Price
JS MineSet Feb 1, 2011

Color Code - Personality Test

I spent a few minutes going through this personality test, and was quite surprised with the results. My score was highest for red, which I don't see in myself at all. However, since I scored almost equally in three colors, the jury can't come to a decision ... and that's the way I like it. Haha!

Red 30% - Power, or the ability to move from "a" to "b" as efficiently as possible
White 25% - Peace, or calm even in the midst of conflict; clarity in the midst of confusion
Yellow 25% - Fun, or always enjoying the moment
Blue 20% - Intimacy, this doesn't mean sex, but the need to connect, share feelings, and build relationships with others

As a RED you naturally seek productivity and want others to see you as intellectually strong. As REDS want their own way, you like to be in the driver's seat and are willing to pay the price to be in a leadership role even in an intimate relationship. However, you can get frustrated when your partner cannot think for herself or make intelligent decisions on her own. As a RED, you tend to value whatever gets you ahead in life, whether it is at work, school, or in your personal relationships. What you value, you get done. You may be a workaholic and enjoy it!. You will, however, resist being forced to do anything that doesn't interest you.

As a RED, you like to be right. You value approval from others for your intelligence and solution-based, pragmatic style. You want to be respected even more than you want to be loved, and you appreciate admiration for your logical, practical mind.

I could possibly be ... The Most Amazing Man Alive!

~~~//~~~

Man tools - explained (thanks Lynne)

DRILL PRESS: A tall upright machine useful for suddenly
snatching flat metal bar stock out of your hands so that it smacks you in
the chest and flings your beer across the room, denting the freshly-painted
project which you had carefully set in the corner where nothing could get to it.

WIRE WHEEL: Cleans paint off bolts and then throws them
somewhere under the workbench with the speed of light . Also removes
fingerprints and hard-earned calluses from fingers in about the time it
takes you to say, 'Oh sh--!'


SKIL SAW: A portable cutting tool used to make studs too short.

PLIERS: Used to round off bolt heads. Sometimes used in the
creation of blood-blisters.

BELT SANDER: An electric sanding tool commonly used to convert
minor touch-up jobs into major refinishing jobs.

HACKSAW: One of a family of cutting tools built on the Ouija
board principle... It transforms human energy into a crooked, unpredictable
motion, and the more you attempt to influence its course, the more dismal
your future becomes.

VISE-GRIPS: Generally used after pliers to completely round off
bolt heads. If nothing else is available, they can also be used to transfer
intense welding heat to the palm of your hand.

OXYACETYLENE TORCH: Used almost entirely for lighting various
flammable objects in your shop on fire. Also handy for igniting the grease
inside the wheel hub out of which you want to remove a bearing race.

TABLE SAW: A large stationary power tool commonly used to launch
wood projectiles for testing wall integrity.

HYDRAULIC FLOOR JACK: Used for lowering an automobile to the
ground after you have installed your new brake shoes, trapping the jack
handle firmly under the bumper.

BAND SAW: A large stationary power saw primarily used by most
shops to cut good aluminum sheet into smaller pieces that more easily fit
into the trash can after you cut on the inside of the line instead of the
outside edge.

TWO-TON ENGINE HOIST: A tool for testing the maximum tensile
strength of everything you forgot to disconnect.

(time for a commercial break - cars we drove ... click)

PHILLIPS SCREWDRIVER: Normally used to stab the vacuum seals
under lids or for opening old-style paper-and-tin oil cans and splashing oil
on your shirt; but can also be used, as the name implies, to strip out
Phillips screw heads.

STRAIGHT SCREWDRIVER: A tool for opening paint cans. Sometimes
used to convert common slotted screws into non-removable screws and
butchering your palms.

PRY BAR: A tool used to crumple the metal surrounding that clip
or bracket you needed to remove in order to replace a 50 cent part.

HOSE CUTTER: A tool used to make hoses too short.

HAMMER: Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer
nowadays is used as a kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive
parts adjacent the object we are trying to hit.

UTILITY KNIFE: Used to open and slice through the contents of
cardboard cartons delivered to your front door; works particularly well on
contents such as seats, vinyl records, liquids in plastic bottles, collector
magazines, refund checks, and rubber or plastic parts. Especially useful
for slicing work clothes, but only while in use.

SON-OF-A-BITCH TOOL: (A personal favourite!) Any handy tool that
you grab and throw across the garage while yelling 'Son of a BITCH!'
at the top of your lungs. It is also, most often, the next tool that you will need.

Hope you found this educational.

Men are so stupid, they have to have a different tool for everything.
Woman Tool - KITCHEN KNIFE: A handy all purpose tool which can act as
1: A screwdriver
2: A hammer
3: A can opener
4: A Pry Bar
5: A hose cutter
6: A Hacksaw
7: A wire cutter
8: A carpet knife
9: Occasionally used to butter bread, if it is still straight enough.
~

Hahaha!

This is bloody priceless.

Hilarious British animal voiceovers

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James Last ... and more

Orange Blossom Special

James Last - Abide With Me

James Last - Trompetten Jodler

~~~~~~~~~~~~~//~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Jimmy Swaggart: I've Never Been This Homesick Before

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Alternative retirement living

GroovyGirl has a good piece on retirement living.

Groovygirl believes that in the next 20 years, retirement units will be hard to come by and expensive. But as more Baby Boomers retire and require special accommodations, those living costs will stabilize or decrease.

In some areas, the waiting list of retirement units are 2-3 years long. What do you do in the meantime? You have sold your house (before it is devalued any more) and you are now homeless, waiting for your retirement unit.

A hotel

Select service hotels such as Residence Inn By Marriott and Hilton Garden Inn may offer a good daily rate for an extended contract of 6 months to 2 years (sometimes much better than the local retirement home daily rate). These hotel rooms are usually larger than most “retirement rooms” and have a full kitchen (including plates and cookware) and full bath. For an additional charge, you can also have your pet (usually under 35 pounds) live with you. (I know retirees that live at a hotel for this benefit alone as most retirement facilities do not allow pets. This will probably change in the future as more Baby Boomers retire.)

These types of hotels usually have a free breakfast and cocktail hour, so part of your daily food expense is free. At a hotel, they do not have any medical staff available, but there is always someone checking on you in case something should occur. Depending on the location, there is sometimes a van service to take hotel guests to local attractions, the airport, or shopping. There is usually free internet, WiFi, and public computer center, an exercise room, local phone, guest laundry, and pool. Those extras can really add up and should be calculated into the decision process.

I know one retiree who didn’t want to handle the maintenance of a big house, but didn’t want to go live “in a place with a bunch of old people”. She lives at the hotel to be around all age groups and have her dog with her more than any of the other benefits. And her rate is currently less than the local retirement community.

The downside: no storage.

Rent a private room

With many people needing help making the mortgage payment, families or single mothers may be willing to rent out an extra bedroom for a small fee. While it used to be that you rented out the spare room to a local college student, times have changed. Start asking around and see if you have any takers.

Remember to be upfront about all your wants and needs and have all the rules in writing. But this could be a very good temporary solution if you do not have family in the area (or even of you do).

House sharing

If you live alone and have extra room(s), you could invite other retired people to share expenses in your home. Again, be upfront with expectations.

Live in another country

If you are relatively healthy, consider moving to another country where your USdollar or gold savings will go farther. South and Central America seem to be very popular for this move. There are many considerations with a move like this. Do extensive research first.

Move in with your children or grandchildren or other relative

Always an option. Put it in writing and make sure it has an end date or a review date.

These are just some of the options for retirement living. Most of these solutions would not work if you had a severe medical condition.