2012 Cdn Div Aristocrats

Boomer and Echo.com
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Gold in the Next Calendar Year

We’re not getting any older. Or, are we?

Yes, dear reader, it is all coming together...and falling apart.

First, this is a quiet time in the markets. The Dow barely moved yesterday. Gold, however, fell $10 to close under $1,600.

You know the drill. Sell stocks on rallies. Buy gold on dips. This formula has worked beautifully for the last 12 years. We don’t see any reason to give it up. Has anything important changed? Is there a new man at the Fed who is determined to save the dollar and the bond market? Has Congress suddenly decided to stop spending more than it takes in?

If so, we haven’t heard about it.

And so what if gold falls to 1,400? Or 1,200? You know what we call that. A buying opportunity!

But a lot of people don’t agree with us — thank God. They think gold has made its big move. They think we’re back in 1980...looking ahead to another big bull market in stocks and another big bear market in gold.

Not that there aren’t similarities. Let’s see...similarities...hmmm...hmmm...

Oh yes. The Fed chief then and the Fed chief now both walk on two legs!

But seriously, as Warren Buffett says, if you’re in a poker game and you can’t identify the patsy, you’re it. These people who see parallels between 1980 and 2011...who expect a recovery...and a boom...they must be the patsies.

If they’re not, we are. They are buying stocks and selling gold. We’re doing the opposite.

But you know something, dear reader... You know what we really think...? We consulted the Mayan calendar. It began on August 11, 3014 BC. And it ends...you guessed it...in 2012. And you know what that means? We can stop putting on seat belts. And stop worrying about M-2. Or M-1. Or any other M.

We mean, what’s the point...with the end of time coming and all?

And we can stop taking those nutritional supplements. Instead, we’re going to have an extra drink. What harm can it do? After all, if the Mayans are right, we’re not getting any older.

By the way...we’ve all heard of how Mayer Amschel Rothschild built his banking empire. What we don’t hear much about is how his wife, Gutle, did the hard work — preparing her children for the challenge ahead. We know now that any fool can run a bank...it’s almost a job requirement. But not any woman can build a team of children who are capable of running a banking empire.

Gutle outlived her husband. Despite the family’s great wealth, she lived all her life in the same tiny house in the Frankfurt Judengasse (Jewish alley) where she and Mayer had started out.

When she was in her 90s she consulted a doctor.

“What do you expect,” he said to her. “I can’t make you any younger.”

“You misunderstand, Herr Doctor,” she replied. “I want to be older.”

And more thoughts...

We think gold has further to fall. We also think bonds have further to rise. And we think this Japan-like slump has further to run.

Here’s something interesting. We have been predicting that the US would “turn Japanese” for nearly 10 years. Maybe more. Many were — and are — the parallels between the US and Japan. But one thing that never seemed to line up was the population trend. The Japanese are getting older...and fewer. Americans are still relatively young...and the population is still growing.

But wait. What’s this? The latest census data tells us that immigration in the US has fallen to a 20-year low...and population growth has slowed to 0.7% per year — the lowest level since before the Baby Boom generation was born.

Maybe we are turning Japanese after all.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

quoting George Karahalios

Over the next 12-18 months I expect the global debt crisis to perpetually re-erupt unless massive bailouts ensue. Either way, I expect the gold price to exceed $3000 US. At that point gold will have achieved close to fair value relative to the future prospects of other assets if the world were to have righted itself.

financialsense.com

A Christmas Story

~ by Rian B. Anderson

Pa never had much compassion for the lazy or those who squandered their means and then never had enough for the necessities. But for those who were genuinely in need, his heart was as big as all outdoors. It was from him that I learned the greatest joy in life comes from giving, not from receiving.

It was Christmas Eve 1881. I was fifteen years old and feeling like the world had caved in on me because there just hadn't been enough money to buy me the rifle that I'd wanted so bad that year for Christmas. We did the chores early that night for some reason. I just figured Pa wanted a little extra time so we could read in the Bible. So after supper was over I took my boots off and stretched out in front of the fireplace and waited for Pa to get down the old Bible. I was still feeling sorry for myself and, to be honest, I wasn't in much of a mood to read scriptures. But Pa didn't get the Bible, instead he bundled up and went outside. I couldn't figure it out because we had already done all the chores. I didn't worry about it long though, I was too busy wallowing in self-pity.

Soon Pa came back in. It was a cold clear night out and there was ice in his beard. "Come on, Matt," he said. "Bundle up good, it's cold out tonight." I was really upset then. Not only wasn't I getting the rifle for Christmas, now Pa was dragging me out in the cold, and for no earthly reason that I could see. We'd already done all the chores, and I couldn't think of anything else that needed doing, especially not on a night like this. But I knew Pa was not very patient at one dragging one's feet when he'd told them to do something, so I got up and put my boots back on and got my cap, coat, and mittens. Ma gave me a mysterious smile as I opened the door to leave the house. Something was up, but I didn't know what.

Outside, I became even more dismayed. There in front of the house was the work team, already hitched to the big sled. Whatever it was we were going to do wasn't going to be a short, quick, little job. I could tell. We never hitched up the big sled unless we were going to haul a big load. Pa was already up on the seat, reins in hand. I reluctantly climbed up beside him. The cold was already biting at me. I wasn't happy.

When I was on, Pa pulled the sled around the house and stopped in front of the woodshed. He got off and I followed. "I think we'll put on the high sideboards," he said. "Here, help me." The high sideboards! It had been a bigger job than I wanted to do with just the low sideboards on, but whatever it was we were going to do would be a lot bigger with the high sideboards on.

When we had exchanged the sideboards Pa went into the woodshed and came out with an armload of wood---the wood I'd spent all summer hauling down from the mountain, and then all fall sawing into blocks and splitting. What was he doing? Finally I said something. "Pa," I asked, "what are you doing?"

"You been by the Widow Jensen's lately?" he asked. The Widow Jensen lived about two miles down the road. Her husband had died a year or so before and left her with three children, the oldest being eight. Sure, I'd been by, but so what?
"Yeah," I said, "why?"
"I rode by just today," Pa said. "Little Jakey was out digging around in the woodpile trying to find a few chips. They're out of wood, Matt." That was all he said and then he turned and went back into the woodshed for another armload of wood. I followed him.

We loaded the sled so high that I began to wonder if the horses would be able to pull it. Finally, Pa called a halt to our loading, then we went to the smoke house and Pa took down a big ham and a side of bacon. He handed them to me and told me to put them in the sled and wait. When he returned he was carrying a sack of flour over his right shoulder and a smaller sack of something in his left hand. "What's in the little sack?" I asked.
"Shoes. They're out of shoes. Little Jakey just had gunny sacks wrapped around his feet when he was out in the woodpile this morning. I got the children a little candy too. It just wouldn't be Christmas without a little candy."

We rode the two miles to Widow Jensen's pretty much in silence. I tried to think through what Pa was doing. We didn't have much by worldly standards. Of course, we did have a big woodpile, though most of what was left now was still in the form of logs that I would have to saw into blocks and split before we could use it. We also had meat and flour, so we could spare that, but I knew we didn't have any money, so why was Pa buying them shoes and candy? Really, why was he doing any of this? Widow Jensen had closer neighbors than us. It shouldn't have been our concern.

We came in from the blind side of the Jensen house and unloaded the wood as quietly as possible, then we took the meat and flour and shoes to the door. We knocked. The door opened a crack and a timid voice said, "Who is it?" "Lucas Miles, Ma'am, and my son, Matt. Could we come in for a bit?" Widow Jensen opened the door and let us in. She had a blanket wrapped around her shoulders. The children were wrapped in another and were sitting in front of the fireplace by a very small fire that hardly gave off any heat at all. Widow Jensen fumbled with a match and finally lit the lamp. "We brought you a few things, Ma'am," Pa said and set down the sack of flour. I put the meat on the table. Then Pa handed her the sack that had the shoes in it. She opened it hesitantly and took the shoes out one pair at a time. There was a pair for her and one for each of the children---sturdy shoes, the best, shoes that would last. I watched her carefully. She bit her lower lip to keep it from trembling and then tears filled her eyes and started running down her cheeks. She looked up at Pa like she wanted to say something, but it wouldn't come out. "We brought a load of wood too, Ma'am," Pa said, then he turned to me and said, "Matt, go bring enough in to last for awhile. Let's get that fire up to size and heat this place up."

I wasn't the same person when I went back out to bring in the wood. I had a big lump in my throat and, much as I hate to admit it, there were tears in my eyes too. In my mind I kept seeing those three kids huddled around the fireplace and their mother standing there with tears running down her cheeks and so much gratitude in her heart that she couldn't speak. My heart swelled within me and a joy filled my soul that I'd never known before. I had given at Christmas many times before, but never when it had made so much difference. I could see we were literally saving the lives of these people.

I soon had the fire blazing and everyone's spirits soared. The kids started giggling when Pa handed them each a piece of candy and Widow Jensen looked on with a smile that probably hadn't crossed her face for a long time. She finally turned to us. "God bless you," she said. "I know the Lord himself has sent you. The children and I have been praying that he would send one of his angels to spare us."

In spite of myself, the lump returned to my throat and the tears welled up in my eyes again. I'd never thought of Pa in those exact terms before, but after Widow Jensen mentioned it I could see that it was probably true. I was sure that a better man than Pa had never walked the earth. I started remembering all the times he had gone out of his way for Ma and me, and many others. The list seemed endless as I thought on it.

Pa insisted that everyone try on the shoes before we left. I was amazed when they all fit and I wondered how he had known what sizes to get. Then I guessed that if he was on an errand for the Lord that the Lord would make sure he got the right sizes. Tears were running down Widow Jensen's face again when we stood up to leave. Pa took each of the kids in his big arms and gave them a hug. They clung to him and didn't want us to go. I could see that they missed their pa, and I was glad that I still had mine.

At the door Pa turned to Widow Jensen and said, "The Mrs. wanted me to invite you and the children over for Christmas dinner tomorrow. The turkey will be more than the three of us can eat, and a man can get cantankerous if he has to eat turkey for too many meals. We'll be by to get you about eleven. It'll be nice to have some little ones around again. Matt, here, hasn't been little for quite a spell." I was the youngest. My two older brothers and two older sisters were all married and had moved away. Widow Jensen nodded and said, "Thank you, Brother Miles. I don't have to say, "'May the Lord bless you,' I know for certain that He will."

Out on the sled I felt a warmth that came from deep within and I didn't even notice the cold. When we had gone a ways, Pa turned to me and said, "Matt, I want you to know something. Your ma and me have been tucking a little money away here and there all year so we could buy that rifle for you, but we didn't have quite enough. Then yesterday a man who owed me a little money from years back came by to make things square. Your ma and me were real excited, thinking that now we could get you that rifle, and I started into town this morning to do just that. But on the way I saw little Jakey out scratching in the woodpile with his feet wrapped in those gunny sacks and I knew what I had to do. So, Son, I spent the money for shoes and a little candy for those children. I hope you understand."

I understood, and my eyes became wet with tears again. I understood very well, and I was so glad Pa had done it. Just then the rifle seemed very low on my list of priorities. Pa had given me a lot more. He had given me the look on Widow Jensen's face and the radiant smiles of her three children. For the rest of my life, whenever I saw any of the Jensens, or split a block of wood, I remembered, and remembering brought back that same joy I felt riding home beside Pa that night. Pa had given me much more than a rifle that night, he had given me the best Christmas of my life.

The above story was posted with this note:

I usually try to stay on topic, please indulge me in this story today. I am very happy just to be on the planet this Christmas breathing. For those of you that don't know me, I have lung cancer and am beating it. I plan on being here next Christmas too. Warning this story will make you feel really good!
minque Wed Dec 24 2003

Slide show

Traditional Irish Blessing
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Celtic Thunder

Steal Away

"Hallelujah"

You Raise Me Up

A Place in the Choir

when is gold fully priced?

Hello Mr. Sinclair,

I have been listening to your interviews on King World News. My father and I have thoroughly enjoyed them and have learned volumes. I wish to extend my complements to you on your unprecedented ability to understand and explain the complex financial situation that our world faces.

There is a question I would like to ask you about the current bull market in gold that you say we are in. As all bull markets eventually end, my question to you is not, "if" there will come a day to take profits, but when to take profits and what to do with those profits. For example, I would think of myself as a bad investor to ride the gold market from its lows clear up to its highs and back down to its lows again. If gold goes to $2,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 dollars per ounce at what point should one sell the physical metal? Hypothetically if gold were to go to $5,000 dollars per ounce or achieve a 1:1 price ratio with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, does one actually sell the physical coin for U.S. dollars (knowing the U.S. dollar is just another fiat currency)? Should one wait for an alternative currency to arise and sell the physical metal for that currency?

I hope I have been clear in what I am asking. Basically if one is holding wealth in gold/silver at what point does one take profits, and what does one roll those profits into at the end of the bull market in gold/silver? You might think my question premature as there are possibly years left in this bull market in gold, but I don’t want to be the last man standing who just watched the bull market profits disappear. (I call to your attention the gold price action of the 1980s when gold soared to $800 per ounce only to settle for the next decade between $200-$300.)

I would appreciate any advice and insight you might have.

CIGA Luke

Dear Luke,

You have presented the most difficult of questions. Last evening, I answered that via a graph of emotions that finds tops, but not necessarily with the definition of the long term top appended.

I do not think a ratio to the Dow is the answer.

The model answer is when gold sells (per ounce) at the value that equals the total dollar value of US foreign debt divided by the assumed number of ounces of gold the US government has, gold is full priced.

The reason for that is because at that price the international balance sheet of the USA and therefore the dollar is in balance. However, that number, which was $900 in 1980, is now slightly above $12,400.

If grouping of cycles is of any use time wise, that suggests 2015.

Regards,
Jim

jsmineset.com

gold - most manipulated market

Much of the recent bearishness is based on primary school TA, a broken trend line of a triangle that moved almost to its apex and the 200 day MA.

The best long term market predictor that I know may well not be the best short or medium term trader. People need to stay within the bounds of what they are historically best at.

Gold is the most manipulated market on the planet. Painting charts to accumulate has been a fact since 2003. China is a master painter of the world cash gold chart. That is why in this entire gold bull market every major up move in gold has been proceeded by a horrid technical formation or break that reversed out of nowhere.

If a simple trend line breaks or 200 day moving averages were consistently good, everyone would be a billionaire.

Next week could surprise the bears in gold.

I would not, now, be stampeded by a great long term predictor’s short term outlook or a fellow who screams, dances, blows whistles, and horns when reporting on markets who recently declared the gold bull market dead for the second time in a year.

The first declaration was hardly a death.

Regards,

Jim

jsmineset.com

Also, this gold comment from Peter Grandich (Dec 19, 2011)

great sacred music from SE Samonte

God Will Take Care of You 3:32 / 23,148 views
- sung by the Antrim Mennonite Choir
- an SE Samonte video

Softly and Tenderly 4:31 / 95,125 views
- sung by Altar of Praise Chorale
- an SE Samonte video

Yes, I Know 3:18 / 70,833 views
- sung by The Mountain Anthems
- an SE Samonte video

Playlist of Anabaptist-Mennonite music from SE Samonte
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Seasonality DJIA

timingthemarket.ca

A short term peak in early January

· Favourable anticipation of fourth quarter results

A brief correction into February

· Triggered partially by negative earnings guidance related to currency translation by international companies

· More political turbulence in Europe and the U.S.

· Increasing political rhetoric by Iran

A recovery into April

· Mildly improving economic news in North America and first signs of a bottoming in Far East economies (particularly China).

· Talk of Quantitative Easing (QE 3)

A significant correction into May

· Political rhetoric in the U.S. ramps up when the Republican presidential candidate becomes apparent. Economic uncertainty increase due to questions about future direction of the next Administration.

· Recognition of a slow-down in corporate earnings growth in the first and second quarters

A significant recovery from June to August

· The recovery in the Far East (particularly China) becomes more apparent. Commodity prices and related stocks move higher.

· If equity markets perceive that President Obama is to behttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif replaced by the Republican candidate, corporate spending in North America starts to ramp up. Investors begin to anticipate strong economic growth in 2013. If markets perceive a re-election of Obama, a mid-year recovery is weak at best.

A brief correction into October if replacement of Obama is over-anticipated

· Also “End of world” jitters similar to the correction in October 2000 before Y2K

Higher equity market following the Presidential election on the first Tuesday in November regardless of who wins the Presidency

· Investors move into sectors that will benefit from the President’s new mandate

Metro Atlanta Gospel Music Convention

"WHERE MILK AND HONEY FLOWS"

"I KNOW MY NAME IS THERE"

"I'M LIVING IN CANAAN NOW"

"AT CALVARY"

"AT THE CROSS"

"WHEN WE ALL GET TO HEAVEN"

"JESUS, HOLD MY HAND"

"VICTORY IN JESUS"


"I NEVER SHALL FORGET THE DAY"

"SOME DAY"

"WON'T IT BE WONDERFUL THERE?"

"THE OLD RUGGED CROSS"

"I'VE NEVER BEEN SORRY"

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Buy Silver...Now! - Daily Reckoning

image source

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Teddy Bear

Teddy Bear by Red Sovine

teddy bears last ride

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Steve Goodman

Fourteen Days

You Never Even Call Me By My Name

I am My Own Grandpa

Banana Republic

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Volatility and Risk

Volatility Does Not Equal Risk
Written by Jeff Nielson Wednesday, 28 September 2011

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photographer jump

Story here ...

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Soweto Gospel Choir

Hosanna - Soweto Gospel Choir

I bid you Goodnight - Soweto Gospel Choir

Ahuna Ye Tswanang Le Jesu Kammatla

*Forever young by Soweto Gospel Choir *

Sunday music

Evangelisations Männerchor Deutschland ''Jesus Christus, er kommt wieder''

Wenn Jesus kommt - Karlsruher Jugendquartett


O ich weiss ein Land

Ich weiß einen Strom

How Deep The Fathers Love - RJC Chorale & CMU

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Buy and Hope

Buy-And-Hold Is Dead And Gone

Forbes article from 2010
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Alf Field

Keynote Speech At Sydney Gold Symposium 14-15 November 2011 By Alf Field
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commercial break

Cinema stunt by Carlsberg
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Grandich

Seasonalities - ENB

ENBRIDGE INC COM NPV (ENB.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of January 20 and a sell date of December 31, investors have benefited from a total return of 612.5% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 320.14%.

EquityClock.com

Seasonalities - TRP

TRANSCANADA CORP COM NPV (TRP.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of January 20 and a sell date of December 31, investors have benefited from a total return of 465.52% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of April 17 and a sell date of November 4, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 259.54% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 273.86%.

EquityClock.com

Seasonalities - BTE

BAYTEX ENERGY TR (BTE-UN.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of December 6 and a sell date of August 24, investors have benefited from a total return of 4141.63% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of December 6 and a sell date of June 19, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 3096.63% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 595.97%.

EquityClock.com

NOTE: Baytex has converted to a corporation from an income trust. The symbol is BTE.

Seasonalities - CU

Canadian Utilities Limited (CU.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of April 14 and a sell date of December 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 218.45% over the last 9 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 6 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of February 25 and a sell date of November 16, producing a total return over the same 9-year range of 150.14% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 9 years was 113.46%.

EquityClock.com

Falling Leaves

Grandpa Jones

Falling leaves that lie scattered on the ground,
The birds and flowers that were here cannot be found.
All the friends that he once knew are not around.
They're all scattered like the leaves upon the ground.

Some folks drift along through life and never thrill,
To the feeling that a good deed brings until,
It's too late and they are ready to lie down,
There beneath the leaves that's scattered on the ground.

Lord, let my eyes see every need of every man,
Make me stop and always lend a helping hand,
Then when I'm laid beneath that little grassy mound,
There'll be more friends around than leaves upon the ground.

To your grave there's no use taking any gold,
You cannot use it when it's time for hands to fold,
When you leave this earth for a better home someday,
The only thing you'll take is what you gave away.

Grandpa Jones - Falling Leaves



When I Get To The End Of The Way - Grandpa Jones
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Steve Jobs

A Sister’s Eulogy for Steve Jobs

Bonnie Stewart - Silver Threads Among The Gold

Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch, one of history’s all-time top mutual-fund managers, summed it up best when he said that, “If you spend 12 minutes a year worrying about economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." ~Will Rogers (from chapter one of One Up On Wall Street)

Ross Hansen

Excellent interview with Ross Hansen (20 minutes)

James J Puplava with Ross Hansen

Ross Hansen has over 30 years experience as a minting expert and bullion dealer. Ross began his career in precious metals in 1981 with the founding of Auburn Precious Metals. Soon after, he began striking silver bullion under the Northwest Territorial Mint brand.

Mark Lowry

Ridin Down The Canyon
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Eric Sprott

When Money Dies
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Should You Go First

George Younce quotes a very touching poem about loved ones who have gone before us.

Should You Go First



Farewell to Vestal and Gaither Stars

I've Never Been This Homesick Before

Highway to Heaven - Jessy Dixon

JESSY DIXON with GAITHER HOMECOMING FRIENDS
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quoting Adrienne Toghraie

In the last few months I have been getting calls from traders who are frustrated, angry, sad and sometimes lost. They talk about bosses, wives, children, and the government that is the source of their upset. While people in your life can create an atmosphere of turmoil, you are ultimately in charge of your own power. When you lose your power, trading losses will follow.

Not good for me

Ken called to tell me that a month ago he had broken up with his girlfriend of 2 years. He told me many reasons why this was not a good relationship and that he knew it had to end. That conversation followed with him telling me that she was getting married. He was obviously upset, but insisted that he did not love her and that if he married her, it would have been the worst decision of his life. I told him that he had let this woman take away all of his power and she did not even know it. I asked him how long he was going to let this go on.

Ken had the sense to stop trading while he was going through his upset. While his focal point was on his ex-girlfriend, she was the catalyst of other issues that were bothering him in his life. His trading was not giving him the results that he wanted. He was unhappy about what was happening in the world. And most of all he was lonely.

Power is energy

What we focus on feeds us with positive or negative energy and that generates power within. When this energy is positive, it allows us to:

· Think rationally

· Give our best performance in trading and in other areas of our life

· See opportunity

· Give good advice to others and ourselves

· Have more energy time

· Create better relationships

· Feel more optimistic

· Have a sense of purpose

· Look forward to the day’s activities

The broken toilet

Kelly was extremely angry with the fact that her landlord did not send anyone to fix her broken toilet after she had left several messages. She then decided to take matters into her own hands and hire a plumber taking the cost out of her rent. Her landlord called and yelled at her for over 10 minutes. As a result, she could not trade for the next few days. This is when she called me.

Kelly told me the story repeatedly until I repeated it back to her and asked if I had missed any of the points. She said that I had not but wanted me to agree with her that she did the right thing. I asked her how long she was going to give up her power by thinking about what had happened over and over in her mind? I asked her who else had yelled at her in her life and told her that she was bad when she had made a decision that most people would think was right. After much discussion, she said her father and her ex-husband.

Who is taking away your power?

If you are presently dealing with an upset, ask yourself these questions:

· What or who is bothering you?

· Is there anything else going on in your life now that is also bothering you?

· Are these feelings you are having similar to other feelings that you have had in your life?

· Does your issue deserve the attention that you are giving it?

What to do?

Here are a few steps that you can take to overcome giving up your power:

· Write down your problem until there is nothing more to say about it.

· Write down what actions you can take immediately and in the future to overcome this and/or to not let this happen again

· Make a plan that is filled with positive activity

· If you cannot handle this on your own, get help

Conclusion

Only we can take away our own power. It is important to recognize when we are allowing our power to be sapped away and take care of it before it escalates and takes over our lives. Remember, not to trade when you do not have power over yourself.

tradingontarget.com

Clive Maund

Those interested in going long gold investments in the near future should "keep their powder dry" but stand ready to wade in big time if gold drops into the bright green "aggressive accumulation zone" shown on our chart. ~Clive Maund

Robert Shaw Chorale

Shenandoah

O Tannenbaum

In the Bleak Midwinter

shale gas - article

Shale Gas – It Ain’t Everything They Said It Would Be

By the Casey Research Energy Team

from Casey's Daily Dispatch, September 29, 2011

Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Warns America (1929)

Steal from the Devil: The Story of Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Preaching About Alcohol

quoting Chris Mayer

Opportunity Now

It’s hard to believe autumn’s days are here already. As the poet Charles Bukowski wrote, “The days run away like wild horses over the hills.” The leaves are already turning. The air is getting cooler. The sunsets come earlier. The fall seasonal brews have been tapped.

I love the changing of the seasons, and it always puts me in a thoughtful mood. I guess because it makes me more conscious of the passage of time, something you can lose in the day-to-day tending to a life.

Such thinking also tends to force some perspective. I think the world is full of opportunity. I think it is a great time to be an investor. Of course, with the constant onslaught of depressing news out there, it’s not always easy to remain alert to these opportunities.

Recently I received an email from a reader of my Capital & Crisis newsletter. I thought the email echoed pretty well some of the concerns investors have right now, so I’d like to take the opportunity to address a few of those points today.


“If the bank stocks run into trouble and there is less liquidity in the market, will that not impact on business in general? Will it not affect businesses that are otherwise well run and in good shape? Will it not bring about a contraction overall?”
The short answers are yes, yes and yes. But those things are hard to predict. In fact, I would say they are impossible to predict reliably and make money. If what I’m saying weren’t true, then a lot more economists would be richer investors. Yet the greatest investors — Graham, Buffett, Klarman, Greenblatt, Whitman, Lynch and many others — are not economists. Not only that, but they pretty much ignored economic forecasting altogether.

In my experience, there is little point in going through life thinking every year is going to be 1929. As an investor, you have to invest through good times and bad. I gave you my personal example, in which I’ve managed my own money through two periods when the market was cut in half from peak to trough (2000-2002 and 2007-2009) yet each time my account rose in value far more than it fell going in. The same was true in Capital & Crisis in the latter crash. (It wasn’t around for the first one.) I think this 2011 episode will bring the same result.


“Now, I know that you believe in finding businesses for which all the fundamentals are good, but surely these too will be negatively impacted if the above scenario is correct. You quoted Buffett as to the fear factor — ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ — but is it not still early days? Do you not think that the fear factor will rise still more if the above scenario comes to pass?”
We don’t know if these are the early days. Things could get worse or they could get better. I come at these things with wide historical perspective. I can show you how every decade there are people who think it is end of days. Yet each time, humanity figures out a way to move forward and markets recover. Then the market cycle repeats, endlessly, through the years.

What’s interesting in our times is that we’ve had several crises packed closely together. And things seem to unfold at hyper speed. But otherwise, I am of the opinion that what we are suffering from is just another turn of the market wheel in a long history of such turns.

Humanity has done an awful lot of self-defeating things. Yet somehow, here we are. Despite all that the 20th century threw at it, the stock market still produced many sparkling gems, a long list of iconic franchises — Wal-Mart, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Home Depot, Apple and many more. I think the 21st century will be no different. We’ll have many calamities, but we’ll also create many opportunities.

I believe in people and incentives and the idea that the true economics of a business will prove out over time. I believe in the classic principles of investing for the long haul that have served so many so well. I believe in patience and discipline.


“So, I guess that really I would like to know if you think that we are on the cusp of a crisis or just a temporary slowdown.”
I’ll give you the only possible honest answer: I don’t know. But here is what few others will tell you: You don’t have to know the answer to that question to succeed as an investor. George Soros, the billionaire speculator, once said, “My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events.” And Warren Buffett said, “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, but nothing about the future.”

It’s something of a myth that great investors are great forecasters. They aren’t — and they realize they aren’t. They play the odds, buying cheap stocks in good businesses, backing talented people and sticking with their winning investment philosophies even when (and especially when) times got tough.

I wouldn’t invest unless you are in it for the long haul, unless you can hold onto a name for a few years. Don’t bother buying stocks if you are not committed as an owner. Think of stocks like real estate. You don’t go around willy-nilly buying real estate. Why? Because you know it is not easy to sell. It’s a hassle. So you are careful about what you buy.

This is why, getting back to the reader’s initial concern, the much- ballyhooed benefit of “liquidity” — the ability to buy and sell with ease without impacting the price of the asset — is the most overblown idea on the planet as far as finance goes. In 1960, the stock market turned over about 14% of its names. Meaning, people held stocks for, on average, seven years. Nobody complained about liquidity. Today, the whole market turns over in less than eight months. There are few owners anymore.

In the end, there will always be people telling you what can’t be done. I’ve heard this chorus since I started writing Capital & Crisis for the public in 2004. But I feel oddly optimistic. I feel like now is one of those times — like the pit of 2008 and early 2009 — at which we’ll look back and be glad we stayed in the game.

Of course, only time will tell. Until then, don’t forget to enjoy the present — the tasty fall brews, the company of friends and family and “the teeming autumn, big with rich increase” — as the old Bard had it.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

gold

Here are some words from Master Kenny:

“If December does NOT correct with lower closes over the next one or two days, but instead closes above $1695 over the next several days, then our figures would consider this corrective action as finished – albeit the normal back and forth widening action to come, notwithstanding. The other option (still in play), is a continuation of a V bottom and a spike rally moving very quickly up to the second resistance level at $1800/$1850, with very little widening along the way.”

jsmineset.com

#2 - another good post from zyphen

Surprised I'm back?

Submitted by Zyphen on September 30, 2011 - 3:11pm.

Me too.

I saw that my original post got hat tipped way more than expected from this crowd. I had thought the self styled troll hunters and conspiracy nuts were representative of the forum. I actually got mail asking me for more opinions. Trying to escape the church of PMs?

No one seems to have noticed that I advocated a long term core physical position in gold. They only heard that I was short term neutral with a bearish tilt and started frothing at the mouth. I wonder how you guys would react to real bears. Turd basically gives you guys similar advice in his last two postings but with a more optimistic tone.

Some people found my "the market is always right" statement condescending and objectionable. As I skimmed the comments, I only noticed 1 person who grasped what I was saying: that the market reflects the manipulations and maneuverings of all players (which includes you). If you're playing the game, then go figure out how the game is played and stop whining when you lose. I see a lot of mention of one Jesse Livermore on here but I'm thinking no one bothered to read any of his books. Guess who coined the phrase? Surprise, surprise. Go to wikipedia and click on the free pdf link at the bottom of his page. The man gave some good advice but was terrible at following his own rules (and went broke).

Also, I had a lot of people talking at me all at once so sorry if I didn't respond. But when I have people telling me straight up that they think the whole world is in on "it", there's really not much left for me to argue. If you don't think different banks or even different countries have differing interests, there's nothing I can say to that. That's the great part about conspiracies. It's like religion: needs little to no evidence, is hard to disprove (because it's not based in reality) and is easy to take on faith.

Anyways, if I wasn't clear about my positions, here they are (for people that care):

I'm short term neutral/bearish on gold. I'm long term bullish. I don't like the deflationary news coming out of Europe and China. It's a global economy. The Fed can't inflate to the moon by itself. And currently, it has given no signs for QE3. This is bad for metals and commodities. However, I consider gold to be more of an alternative currency than anything else. I still expect the G20 to huddle and realize they like inflation better after all. Else, it's USD for me.

For silver, I'm short term bearish and long term neutral. I don't like the fact that over half the demand equation is industrial. I don't expect to see 40s for a long while. I think it's very possible we hit low 20s if 29 falls decisively. Else, I expect range trading from high 20s to mid 30s for a while. People can forget about a low gold/silver ratio. You won't have the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market this time around with their highly leveraged billion dollar accounts. They couldn't do it in this kind of environment anyway with the rise of the East. Manipulation happens both ways. 100:1 leverage can just as easily push the price up (and did). If you think that's an absurd ratio, open up a FOREX account. It's the norm for all currencies. You guys should be happy, in a sense, that margin requirements have been raised. It gets us closer to the "real" price. Silver is still up 40%. Have some perspective.

P.S.: Why don't you guys read more from gold bugs that have actual credentials, a face, and - oh, I dunno - a real name? They're not optimistic enough for ya? I mean, blogs like Turd's are good places for technical discussions (which this thing has long since drifted away from) or sharing of news but there's too much pumping from random people with $500 newsletters and self-affirming radio shows (that aren't really on the radio) to draw in large numbers of subscribers for their advertisers. I'm not sold on Turd myself. He might just be repeating technical levels he got somewhere else. I'm skeptical of anybody that uses a SNL skit as their front. At least he's not asking for money yet (far as I know). Then you end up with stuff like Andrew Maguire, who doesn't exist btw. I know, it's like finding out about the tooth fairy but really, try finding actual information about this person:

He's either the creation of Max Keiser "Soze" or Bill Murphy. But because he's hiding out and his life is in danger or whatever, he'll never come out in public to drop his bombshell. It's funny how conspiracy theorists are so paranoid and gullible at the same time. You just gotta feed them the right bag of oats.

quoting Morris Hubbart

The dollar rally already now appears to be starting a topping out process. This process that is topping the dollar is also creating substantial bottoming action in gold and commodities. I expect this process to take another two weeks. I want to own more gold while the “sale” is on.

(GDXJ) Everything on the above chart is in place for a mind blowing rally, and believe me, I’m fully aware of the shell-shocked state most of you juniors investors are in right now, and have been in for years.

(DJIA) I see the dollar topping out in the next two or three weeks. That also means I see the stock market bottoming inside of 2-3 weeks. The window for booking profits on short sales is closing fast, but is still open, and the possibility of a heavy drop in the market is likely in this very short time span.

I know this may come as a bit of a shock, but I believe the next leg of weakness in the stock market could be purchased quite aggressively. Personally, I am directing my main buys towards gold, silver, gold stocks, crude oil, and agricultural commodities!

Sep 30, 2011
Morris Hubbartt

zyphen

Found this entry penned by "zyphen" on a blog which otherwise isn't worth linking to.

Submitted by Zyphen on September 28, 2011 - 2:30pm.

I've followed this blog off and on for a long time (since a year before it moved). While I often do not agree with the reasoning behind why moves occur, I do like to compare notes on support/resistance levels with this "Turd" fellow and other traders/bloggers in the PM game.

I just want to make a few observations here to help out some would-be traders and overleveraged perma-bulls:

1. The market is always right. Why? Because you're in it. It doesn't care about your rationalizations or reasoning. The price is what it is because the market says so. End of discussion.

2. Everyone on here is small-time. All of you put together won't make a fraction of a cent of difference in the price of gold. You can buy all the physical you want from all the small time dealers you can find. It doesn't matter. What moves the price are banks and sovereign funds. If there's a "conspiracy" to keep the price down, then there had to have been a big "conspiracy" to move the price up because news flash: you didn't matter at all in that move. As a plankton in the sea, you just want to be lucky enough to ride that wave when the tide comes in. At least people who kept talking up China and asian funds are thinking right in terms of scale. Do the rest of you honestly think that gold has gone parabolic off your meager interests? A lot of that so-called "Evil Empire" is made up of buyers. People who question the JPM naked short rumours are asking the right questions. How can smart money be so dumb? The answer: they're not.

3. Gold is moving with the market, not opposite it. All those fantasies about gold holding up when everything else tanks? Where's your evidence? We're moving in tandem with the general market (and overall worse off). The market is telling you plain as day that when the shit hits the fan (in terms of Greece or whatever else comes down the pipeline) that it'll just be a repeat of 2008. Gold and Silver will tank along with everything else. Cash is still going to be king until the market says otherwise.

4. Physical market? That'll never BE the market unless the global economy actually collapses. If you're 100% in physical, it's because you are betting that armageddon occurs. Even noted gold bugs like Marc Faber only recommend 25% allocation. Why? Because it's an insurance policy, not an investment. Frankly, if you think it's the end of the world and there will be anarchy, why stop at gold? Bypass that and go directly for the goods you'd trade that gold for: food, weapons, water, gas, etc.

5. Opportunity Cost. Relative Value. Paper has value because people believe it has value. Gold has value because people believe it has value. Of course it matters when and at what price you exchange one for the other because you could have gotten a LOT MORE of that other if you did the exchange at the right time. That's the entire point of the market or any market. Right now, people trust paper more. You go to a store, they want paper (or plastic). If you're willing to wait years and don't want to do anything with your money in terms of other investments or purchases, carry on. Otherwise, you'd better pay attention to what the market is telling you. And the market is saying it doesn't like PMs right now.

hersoveela

Show me the way to go home

Sal Bonavita plays Recuerdos de la Alhambra

Bellamy Brothers

IF I said YOU had a Beautiful Body

I Need More Of You

Casey Research

Humphreys does a great job of pushing Doug to defend his brand of no-holds-barred capitalism and the impact it would have on real people with real problems in today’s tough economy. Doug’s answers might surprise you; they will certainly educate you.

On viewing the video, Doug commented that he thought it was the best interview he’s done in a couple of decades, and we agree.

Short long term gov't bonds for the next ten years.

el computador

A Spanish Teacher was explaining to her class that in Spanish, unlike English, nouns are designated as either masculine or feminine.

'House' for instance, is feminine: 'la casa'
'Pencil' however, is masculine: 'el lapiz'

A student asked, 'What gender is 'computer'?'

Instead of giving the answer, the teacher split the class into two groups, male and female, and asked them to decide for themselves whether computer should be a masculine or a feminine noun. Each group was asked to give four reasons for its recommendation.

The men's group decided that 'computer' should definitely be of the feminine gender ('la computadora') because:

1. No one but their creator understands their internal logic;

2.The native language they use to communicate with other computers is incomprehensible to everyone else;

3. Even the smallest mistakes are stored in long term memory for possible later retrieval; and

4. As soon as you make a commitment to one, you find yourself spending half your paycheck on accessories for it.

(THIS GETS BETTER!)

The women's group, however, concluded that computers should be masculine ('el computador') because:

1. In order to do anything with them, you have to turn them on;

2. They have a lot of data but still can't think for themselves;

3. They are supposed to help you solve problems, but half the time they ARE the problem; and

4. As soon as you commit to one, you realize that if you had waited a little longer, you could have gotten a better model.

The women won.

Send this to all the smart women you know,
and all the men that have a sense of humour.

~~~//~~~

quoting Bill Bonner

Why Economic Growth is Not a Sure Thing

What if everything you thought you knew about investing wasn’t so? Or, to put it another way...what if everything you learned about investing was learned in an unusual period in investment history? A period that won’t be repeated in our lifetimes?

You’re used to stocks going up, right? But they don’t always go up. They only go up — in general — when the economy grows.

But economies always grow, right?

Well, maybe not. How much did the economy grow in 2011 BC? Nobody knows, right? But we’ll take a guess. It didn’t grow at all.

And guess how the real economy in the US is growing this year? Probably about as much as it did 4,000 years ago.

No, we’re not kidding. The numbers are all over the place. But they’re all near zero. Even the feds say the economy is “barely” growing...or that the ‘recovery is very fragile.’

Guess how many jobs the economy added in 2011BC? We don’t know that either, but we’ll take another guess: zero.

Okay... You see where we’re going with this. This economy sucks, right?

But here’s the thing. You think the suckiness of this economy is a temporary thing. You think the economy USUALLY does okay. You think that there is something inherent in technology...that it is always finding new and better ways to do things...and that as a result we all get richer all the time, right?

Well, what if you’re wrong?

What’s the measure of wealth? Here’s one way to look at it. It’s how much output you can get from a unit of time. You take your bare hands...you try to dig a ditch. Your output is very limited. So, in a remarkable breakthrough, someone invents a spade! The first ones are made of wood. But they get better and better. Now, with a steel spade in his hands a man can dig much more hole in the same amount of time. He is richer. He can produce more. He can improve his standard of living just by using the tools he has available to him.

But then what? Then...maybe 5,000 years after the invention of the first hoe, a man invents a machine to do the digging...a backhoe. Now he’s really smoking. With a backhoe he can dig 10...20...times faster than a man with a regular hoe.

The first mechanical diggers are clumsy. Steam-powered. But gradually they get better. Now, they’re so smooth and responsive a good backhoe operator can use them to light a man’s cigarette for him. No kidding, it’s included in backhoe rodeo contests.

Mechanical diggers have been around for 100 years. They’ve gotten bigger and better. Presumably, each new generation of machines pays off. But not like they used to. The first backhoes produced huge new gains in productivity. The last produced only marginal gains.

Meanwhile, the energy needed to run the machines becomes more expensive. At 15 cents a gallon, the investment in fuel and machinery was almost sure to be worth it. Now, at $4 a gallon, a man has to think twice. If he has a small hole to dig, he might be better off digging it with a spade!

The energy revolution may have peaked. Growth may be a thing of the past.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

quoting Byron King

Looking at Uranium...Again

Uranium is still a “Buy”...maybe now more than ever.

The disaster in Japan slammed the uranium sector...and it still has not recovered. But this washout looks like a buying opportunity, as long as you’re not in a hurry to make a big gain.

I won’t go into the Japan-specific details, but for our purposes, it’s a safe bet that the Japan disaster means that we may not see a large-scale “nuclear renaissance” during the next generation.

Why not? Well, just consider the ability of people to mobilize opposition to large-scale energy development — especially something with the media-driven fear factor of nuclear power. Looking ahead, it’ll be hard for any new nuclear program, anywhere, to make headway. Yes, we’ll see developments here and there — more in China, say, than in the US. But we probably won’t see a global breakout into the nuclear power space.

Still, the fact is that the world has an installed base of over 400 nuclear power reactors, and these systems generate almost 20% of the world’s electricity. The problem is there’s not enough new uranium coming out of the mines and mills of the world to keep these plants running. One key source of nuclear fuel for the past decade has been decommissioned atomic warheads from the Cold War era. But that source is soon about to dry up — in 2013, to be precise.

The investment point is there’s a looming uranium shortage, within the next two years. Two years? That may as well be tomorrow in terms of finding new sources of industrial supply. Two years really means “now,” as in today. This means that the existing players have to step up the pace. It also means that there’s room for new players and growth within the primary uranium and yellowcake spaces.

In my investment letter, Oustanding Investments, I recommended Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) early in 2006. The stock is down 40% since then! You see, even the nation’s #1-rated investment letter misfires from time to time. Usually, I would suggest cutting losses long before a stock had fallen this much. But I think Cameco is an exception. It is a blue chip company that has faced some very bad luck.

Canada-based Cameco is one of the world’s largest uranium producers. Its shares were trading at over $42 each early in 2011, but crashed to below $30 after the Japan disaster in March. Then, over the past summer, Cameco shares have continued drifting lower. Today, they trade for $21.75.

Last week, Cameco launched a $520 million hostile takeover bid for a much smaller uranium firm named Hathor Exploration. Cameco wants to get hold of Hathor’s high-grade “Roughrider” deposit in Saskatchewan’s prolific Athabasca Basin. Whatever the technical merits of the transaction, this news just dropped Cameco shares to near $20.

At the current share price, Cameco has a price-earnings ratio of 18, with a dividend yield of 1.9%. Yet if uranium pricing firms up over the next year — leading up to the post-2013 looming shortage — Cameco’s earnings could and should increase strongly. So here’s a large company whose shares, on the fundamentals, are poised for a recovery.

Yes, there’s a downside with Cameco from here. But in my view, there’s a strong upside to Cameco as well. Indeed, I think the chances of Cameco going to $30 are better than the chances the share price will drift too far below $20. Cameco is a buy.

Regards,

Byron King
for The Daily Reckoning

Anita Carter

Loving Him Was Easy ~~//~~ All Smiles Tonight ~~//~~ Sunny Side of Spain ~~//~~ When My Blue Moon Turns to Gold (with Hank Snow)

Sacred Music

A Christian hymn composed by Horatius Bonar in 1846. Sung in the video by the Antrim Mennonite Choir, from their album 'Amazing Grace.' I Heard the Voice of Jesus Say ~~//~~ A Christian hymn about Heaven, composed by Fanny Crosby in 1885. Meet Me There ~~//~~ Softly and Tenderly ~~//~~ Day by Day

Wilf Carter

A Cashbox For A Heart ~~//~~ What Price Must I Pay? ~~//~~ The Old Rugged Cross ~~//~~ Grandma's Courtin Again

Hobos Song of the Mounties 1934 ~~//~~ No letter today 1944 ~~//~~ I'm Thinking Tonight of My Blue Eyes

Wilf Carter (December 18, 1904 - December 5, 1996), also known as Montana Slim, was a Canadian country music singer, songwriter, guitarist, and yodeller. Widely acknowledged as the father of Canadian country music, Carter was Canada's first country music star, inspiring a generation of young Canadian performers. ~ Wikipedia

The Story Of Country Music

01 - The Carter Family

02 - Jimmie Rodgers

03 - Roy Acuff, and the Grand Ole Opry

04 Bill Monroe Louvin Brothers

05 Emmylou Harris


07 Hank Williams

08 Hank Williams & The Kings Of Honky Tonk

09 From Hank To Lefty


10 From Lefty To Elvis

11 Chet Atkins And The Nashville Sound

12 Jim Reeves

13 Willie, Waylon & The Boys

14 From Buck Owens to Grahm Parsons

15 The new traditionalists

.

ginmillsinger

I Don't Remember Loving You

Where Could I Go, (but to the Lord)

Just A Little Talk With Jesus
.

Karen Marie Garrett

Simple Things
.

more of Bill Bonner ... quoting

But how much would people pay for a gallon of gasoline? Well, let’s see...let’s assume that gold has done a fair job as real money, of holding its purchasing power steady. Back in the early ’70s you could have bought 160 gallons of gas with a single ounce of gold. And today? At $1,800 an ounce, and gasoline at $4, you can buy 450 gallons. It’s as if the price of gasoline had fallen to about 10 cents a gallon!

Hmmm....go figure.

Either gasoline is too cheap. Or gold is too expensive. If we were a trader we’d short the latter and go long on the former.

And since we’re always just guessing, we’ll take a guess as to what this means...

Gasoline is weak because the economy is fundamentally weak. Gold is high because Richard Nixon destroyed the integrity of the dollar, the US economy, and the world’s monetary system. Each of these trends will have to play itself out. In the meantime, gasoline...and/or gold...may need a little adjustment.

DailyReckoning.com
.

quoting Bill Bonner

Conversation with a Dublin cab driver:

“You Americans are lucky, sure you are. You can just walk away from a house. If I could do that, I’d be out tomorrow. But here, if you owe money on a mortgage the bank can come after you. You can never get away.

“I got married about 4 years ago. My wife and I both worked. We had good jobs. We were earning good money. And we believed all that BS about how property would just go up and up forever.

“So we bought an apartment for 360,000 euros. It was only supposed to be temporary, because we wanted to have a family and we figured we’d get a house after we started having children.

“Well, we’ve got 2 kids already and another on the way. And we’re still in the apartment. And we can’t move. Because the place is now only worth about 160,000 euros — would you believe it? It’s come down that much. And I can’t make the mortgage payments.

“My wife lost her job when the trouble began. And now, with all those children she can’t go back to work anyway. And driving a cab isn’t what it used to be. Every time someone loses his job in Dublin, he starts driving a cab. There are empty cabs all over the place. So, I don’t make nearly as much money as I used to. And with my wife not working, I can’t pay the mortgage.

“So I went to the bank. You know they are all broke. All the banks in Ireland. You’d think they’d like to see an honest homeowner trying to do the right thing.

“I told them I couldn’t keep up with the payments. I asked them if we could work something out, since the apartment is only worth less than half the mortgage amount. But they wouldn’t even talk to me. I guess they have someone breathing down their neck too.

“So I just send them half the money I’m supposed to. It’s all I can do. And I figure they won’t kick me out. Not in Ireland. Ireland has a long history with evictions. It used to be that English property owners would evict their poor Irish tenants. So, now eviction is a bad word in Ireland, almost as bad as slavery in America, I guess. The banks — which have all been bailed out by the taxpayers — don’t want to be seen on TV evicting their tenants now. So I guess I’ll just keep sending them half the mortgage payment. I’ll probably be there for a long time.

“But sooner or later they’ll have to do something. There are 70,000 people in Dublin who aren’t paying their mortgages. And there’s no way they can pay them. The banks are going to have recognize, sooner or later, that they made a mistake lending all that money to us.”

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

.

Guild Investment

Snips from Guild Investment - QE Watch 2011

... get ready for a big stock market and industrial commodities rally later in the year after QE maneuvers in Europe and the U.S.

We expect regional turmoil to last for quite a while, and this opinion is one reason why we still believe that oil can move to $150 per barrel. Whatever the level when the disturbances begin, you can bet that oil will move higher.

Gold has good long term prospects, but short term it is definitely vulnerable to continuing volatility. We have been dismayed by the degree of overconfidence among some gold investors. For example, we heard from several gold buyers between August 15 and 22nd; when we suggested to them that gold could have a violent correction at any time they scoffed. They were deluding themselves.

As any experienced investor knows, gold (and every other investment) is vulnerable to corrections, and as gold rises to new highs, corrections will become more frequent and more violent.

.

gold & silver

Ross Clark sees gold correcting to 50DMA (1670) silver to 37.60
MoneyTalks

Bob Hoye expects 20% pull back from highs in gold indices.
Accumulate at HUI 486; GDX 51; XGD.TO 21.50
321Gold
.

Bill Bonner

Quoting Bill Bonner:

Now, let’s look at the gold market. Gold went down $30 yesterday.

Is it too late to join the party?

Investors don’t know what to do. They were buying gold this week because the Fed is putting on its annual shindig at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Everybody knows the Fed sees itself as a booster for Wall Street. They know, too, that QE2 came out of the Fed last summer. That program didn’t do anything for the economy...

..but what a gift to gold holders!

Gold is up 33% so far this year. And by the look of the chart...it could easily finish the year above $2,000. Maybe above $3,000.

But — remember we’re just guessing — gold looks like it has gotten ahead of itself. It looks over-bought. Besides, investors may be expecting too much of the Fed.

Of course, if the Fed comes out with some more high-octane market hooch...this party could really go wild. But, it isn’t likely. Everybody’s watching. Bernanke needs to give the markets enough juice so they don’t fall apart on Friday...but not enough so the gold market goes blind.

Most likely, he will encourage investors. But he won’t cause a panic. Not yet.

And most likely, gold will fall.

Look, we’re gold bugs here at The Daily Reckoning. We have more faith in gold than we do in the fellows running the world financial system. Not that they’re not nice men. And they’re plenty smart. It’s not that we think they’re stupid. It’s just that we think they’re human. They put on their pants one leg at a time, just like everybody else. And just like everybody else, if you put them under pressure...they’ll crack.

But not yet. Our views on the stock market were severely tested during the big rallies of the ’00s. Now, it is the gold bulls who face a test. Gold has gone up every year since 2000. It’s been too easy. So, it’s time for Mr. Market to pull a fast one on gold buyers.

The process of de-leveraging the private sector, following in Japan’s footsteps, will be long, slow and hard. The feds will fight de-leveraging. They’ll zombify the economy. They’ll make a bigger mess of things...

..but they won’t create conditions for the real Third Phase of the bull market in gold. Not yet.

Yes, dear reader, you pried it out of us. We were trying to be coy. We wanted to hold off. We thought that maybe if we gave it to you all at once, well...maybe you wouldn’t respect us.

But there...we’ve gone and done it anyway. You have our Big Prediction on gold right in front of you. And it didn’t cost you a penny.

We’re gold bugs. But we’re not always gold bulls. And our guess now is that Mr. Market is going to throw us a curve. (Bugs...bulls...curves...why the hell not?) Yep. He’s drawing in millions of Johnny-come-lately gold buyers into the market. And now he’s going to massacre them...and test us.

Because gold is going lower...not higher.

Yep, you read it here first. Stocks are going down. But so is gold.

“Bill, you’ve been saying that gold is going higher for 11 years. Are you now really saying that it’s probably going down?”

“Yep.”

“But didn’t you just urge readers to sell stocks and buy gold?”

“Yep.”

“So you now think it’s going down, right? “

“Yep.”

“So, are you selling your gold?”

“Nope... You think I’m crazy? This is just a temporary setback...maybe a few years, that’s all. This bull market in gold won’t end until gold and the Dow meet.”

Our guess is that gold goes down...shakes out the speculators and weak investors...and then — perhaps a couple years from now...perhaps longer — begins its third and final phase.

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
for The Daily Reckoning

HUI seasonality

timing the market.ca
.

Natural Gas

Quoting from timingthemarket.ca

Headline reads, “Storms could disrupt gas sector: Seasonal strength August-October at weather’s whim”.

Following is full text:

Natural gas prices have a history of moving higher from August to December. What are prospects this year?

Thackray’s 2011 Investor’s Guide notes that U.S. natural gas prices have recorded exceptional seasonal strength from August 1st to December 21st during the past 15 periods. The trade was profitable in 12 of the past 15 periods. Average return per period was 42.3 percent. A word of caution! Natural gas prices are volatile. Returns during the past 12 profitable periods were substantial, but losses during the three periods that recorded a loss also were substantial. “Sweet spot” for the seasonal trade is from the end of August to the end of October.

Seasonal tendencies in the sector are influenced by two annual recurring weather related events during late summer and early fall: Warm weather that increases demand for natural gas used to produce power for air conditioning and hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico that frequently curtail supply. The Gulf of Mexico is the largest gas producing area in the U.S.. More important of the two events are hurricanes entering the Gulf.

What about this year? Heat in the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico has reached record levels this year. Temperatures have remained high for longer than average, a scenario that favours larger and more frequent tropical storms. Weather forecasters are predicting an increase in the number of Atlantic based hurricanes this year partially because of warmer than average temperatures in hurricane inception areas in the Atlantic

during the past few months. A sixth “name” storm for the current season was announced over the weekend. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government entity, noted that the Atlantic storm season annually averages 9-12 named storms of which five to seven storms reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. This year NOAA is predicting 12-18 named storms of which six to ten storms will reach hurricane strength and three to six storms will become major hurricanes. Natural gas inventories currently are slightly below the middle of their historic demand/supply range for this time of year. The demand/supply balance easily could be disrupted if NOAA’s forecast proves to be true.

Investors can play the seasonal trade in natural gas in two ways: by owning natural gas directly either through futures contracts and futures based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or indirectly by owning “gassy” equities and equity based ETFs. Direct ownership is not for the “faint of heart” due to high price volatility. In addition, futures contracts and futures backed ETFs assume additional risk when futures contracts are in contango. The easiest way to invest is by owning ETFs that hold a diversified portfolio of “gassy” stocks. In the U.S. the top choice among liquid ETFs is First Trust ISE Revere Fund (FCG US$19.33). The fund holds 30 equally weighted North American oil and gas stocks that focus on natural gas production. In Canada, BMO Capital offers the BMO Junior Gas Index ETF (ZJN $21.63). Units track performance of the Dow Jones Select Junior Gas Index, a portfolio holding 38 “gassy” stocks.

North American natural gas equities and related ETFs are attractive for another reason this year. Junior companies in the natural gas industry are actively exploring and developing additional reserves from recent gas shale discoveries. Successful drilling has attracted the interest of large international oil and gas companies who have been acquiring junior producers at premium prices.

The technical profile for natural gas currently is negative, but is starting to show promise. Intermediate trend is down. Natural gas trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, support was established last week at US$3.85 and short term momentum indicators are recovering from deeply oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite has been positive since the beginning of July.

Preferred strategy is to accumulate “gassy” equities and equity ETFs for a seasonal trade that is expected to last until at least the end of October.

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Guild Investment

Stocks
Keep a close eye on world markets. Much uncertainty and volatility exist. We expect a huge quantitative easing and bond-buying program to be instituted in the next few months by Europe, Japan, and the U.S. jointly. China may also join in. This development will signal to us a big move up in gold, stocks, oil, commodities and other investment areas that benefit from inflation.

Investor Risk Perceptions Shifting
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The Beauty of English around the world

In a Bangkok temple:
IT IS FORBIDDEN TO ENTER A WOMAN, EVEN A FOREIGNER, IF DRESSED AS A MAN.

Cocktail lounge, Norway:
LADIES ARE REQUESTED NOT TO HAVE CHILDREN IN THE BAR.

Doctors office, Rome:
SPECIALIST IN WOMEN AND OTHER DISEASES.

Dry cleaners, Bangkok:
DROP YOUR TROUSERS HERE FOR THE BEST RESULTS.

In a Nairobi restaurant:
CUSTOMERS WHO FIND OUR WAITRESSES RUDE OUGHT TO SEE THE MANAGER.

On the main road to Mombassa, leaving Nairobi:
TAKE NOTICE: WHEN THIS SIGN IS UNDER WATER, THIS ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

On a poster at Kencom:
ARE YOU AN ADULT THAT CANNOT READ? IF SO WE CAN HELP.

In a City restaurant:
OPEN SEVEN DAYS A WEEK AND WEEKENDS.

In a cemetery:
PERSONS ARE PROHIBITED FROM PICKING FLOWERS FROM ANY BUT THEIR OWN GRAVES.

Tokyo hotel's rules and regulations:
GUESTS ARE REQUESTED NOT TO SMOKE OR DO OTHER DISGUSTING BEHAVIOURS IN BED.

On the menu of a Swiss restaurant:
OUR WINES LEAVE YOU NOTHING TO HOPE FOR.

In a Tokyo bar:
SPECIAL COCKTAILS FOR THE LADIES WITH NUTS.

Hotel, Yugoslavia:
THE FLATTENING OF UNDERWEAR WITH PLEASURE IS THE JOB OF THE CHAMBERMAID.

Hotel, Japan:
YOU ARE INVITED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
CHAMBERMAID.

In the lobby of a Moscow hotel across from a Russian Orthodox monastery:
YOU ARE WELCOME TO VISIT THE CEMETERY WHERE FAMOUS RUSSIAN AND SOVIET COMPOSERS, ARTISTS AND WRITERS ARE BURIED DAILY EXCEPT THURSDAY.

A sign posted in Germany's Black Forest:
IT IS STRICTLY FORBIDDEN ON OUR BLACK FOREST CAMPING SITE THAT PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT SEX, FOR INSTANCE, MEN AND WOMEN, LIVE TOGETHER IN ONE
TENT UNLESS THEY ARE MARRIED WITH EACH OTHER FOR THIS PURPOSE.

Hotel, Zurich:
BECAUSE OF THE IMPROPRIETY OF ENTERTAINING GUESTS OF THE OPPOSITE SEX IN THE BEDROOM, IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOBBY BE USED FOR THIS PURPOSE.

Advertisement for donkey rides, Thailand:
WOULD YOU LIKE TO RIDE ON YOUR OWN ASS?

Airline ticket office, Copenhagen:
WE TAKE YOUR BAGS AND SEND THEM IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

A laundry in Rome:
LADIES, LEAVE YOUR CLOTHES HERE AND SPEND THE AFTERNOON HAVING A GOOD TIME.

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Gold : buying the mid August correction

After touching $1,818 intraday on Aug 10, gold is at $1,725 as I type.

Targets for increased buying are 1700 1675 1650 etc, for about a two week window.

1,575 is the low of Hubbartt's "volatility box".

GDX is outperforming S&P500 by wide margin.

GDXJ now at 34.90 could retest 31.60 area.

DJIA now 11,265 could rally to 11,860 before dropping to 9,500 area in October.

More detail and easy to understand charts in Morris Hubbartt's Aug 12 editorial
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gold, oil, and a new currency?

Here's a short snip from GuildInvestment.com "Got Volatility?"

2. Investors who want to maintain their buying power, or who want to become wealthy, will seek alternatives to the dollar such as the ones we have long espoused. Gold, strong non-U.S. currencies. If the dollar is devalued in one large increment; food, oil, and other commodities would rise dramatically. At that time, we would not be surprised to see oil and gold double from their current levels.

3. A much lower dollar will help solve many of the U.S. growth problems: corporate profits will rise, exports will increase, employment will increase, and the economic stagnation will improve, but inflation will rise at a rapid rate.

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Natural Gas

Investing in Natural Gas with Exchange Traded Funds

Natural gas prices have a history of moving higher from August to December. What are prospects this year?

Thackray’s 2011 Investor’s Guide notes that U.S. natural gas prices have recorded exceptional seasonal strength from August 1st to December 21st during the past 15 periods. The trade was profitable in 12 of the past 15 periods. Average return per period was 42.3 percent. The sweet spot is from the end of August to the end of October. A word of caution! Natural gas prices are volatile. Returns during the past 12 profitable periods were substantial, but losses during the three losing periods also were substantial.

Seasonality by the sector is influenced by one minor and one major annual weather event that occur each fall. The minor event is warm weather that increases demand for natural gas used to produce power for air conditioning. The major event is hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico that frequently curtail supply. The Gulf of Mexico is the largest gas producing area in the U.S.

What about this year? Weather forecasters are predicting hotter than average temperatures in eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. states in the month of August. Weather forecasters also are predicting an increase in the number of Atlantic based hurricanes this year partially because of warmer than average temperatures in hurricane inception areas during the past few months. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government entity noted that the Atlantic storm season annually averages 9-12 name storms of which five to seven storms reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. This year NOAA is predicting 12-18 named storms of which six to ten storms will reach hurricane strength and three to six storms will become major hurricanes. Natural gas inventories currently are in the middle of their historic demand/supply range for this time of year. The demand/supply balance easily could be disrupted if current weather forecasts prove to be true.

The direct way to invest is through ownership of futures backed Exchange Traded Funds that track the price of natural gas. Direct ownership is not for the “faint of heart” due to high price volatility. In addition, futures contracts and futures backed ETFs assume additional risk when futures contracts are in contango.

The most actively traded natural gas Exchange Traded Fund is the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG US$10.00). It attempts to track the spot price of natural gas in the U.S. Management expense ratio is 0.60 percent.

The second most actively traded natural gas ETF in the U.S. is the U.S. 12 month Natural Gas Fund (UNL US$30.01). The fund is based on a basket of futures contracts that expire over the next 12 months. Management expense ratio is 0.75 percent.

Claymore Investments offers the Claymore Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS $23.70). Units hold physical natural gas forward contracts designed to track the NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index. Management expense ratio is 0.80 percent.

Horizons offers a variety of U.S. futures based natural gas ETFs that are hedged against U.S. currency risk. The Winter-Term NYMEX Natural Gas ETF (HUN $4.35) is designed to track the NYMEX futures contract for the next January delivery. Management expense ratio is 0.75 percent. The BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull+ ETF (HNU $4.31) seeks investment results equal to 200 percent of the daily upside performance of the NYMEX natural gas contract for the next delivery month. The BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear+ ETF (HND $$9.55) seeks investment results equal to 200% of the daily downside performance of the NYMEX natural gas contract for the next delivery month. Management expense ratio for the Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs is 1.15 percent.

On the charts, natural gas currently has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Gas trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive at the beginning of July. Preferred strategy is to wait until late August for technical signs of bottoming before entering into the seasonal trade.

TimingTheMarket.ca
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