#2 - another good post from zyphen

Surprised I'm back?

Submitted by Zyphen on September 30, 2011 - 3:11pm.

Me too.

I saw that my original post got hat tipped way more than expected from this crowd. I had thought the self styled troll hunters and conspiracy nuts were representative of the forum. I actually got mail asking me for more opinions. Trying to escape the church of PMs?

No one seems to have noticed that I advocated a long term core physical position in gold. They only heard that I was short term neutral with a bearish tilt and started frothing at the mouth. I wonder how you guys would react to real bears. Turd basically gives you guys similar advice in his last two postings but with a more optimistic tone.

Some people found my "the market is always right" statement condescending and objectionable. As I skimmed the comments, I only noticed 1 person who grasped what I was saying: that the market reflects the manipulations and maneuverings of all players (which includes you). If you're playing the game, then go figure out how the game is played and stop whining when you lose. I see a lot of mention of one Jesse Livermore on here but I'm thinking no one bothered to read any of his books. Guess who coined the phrase? Surprise, surprise. Go to wikipedia and click on the free pdf link at the bottom of his page. The man gave some good advice but was terrible at following his own rules (and went broke).

Also, I had a lot of people talking at me all at once so sorry if I didn't respond. But when I have people telling me straight up that they think the whole world is in on "it", there's really not much left for me to argue. If you don't think different banks or even different countries have differing interests, there's nothing I can say to that. That's the great part about conspiracies. It's like religion: needs little to no evidence, is hard to disprove (because it's not based in reality) and is easy to take on faith.

Anyways, if I wasn't clear about my positions, here they are (for people that care):

I'm short term neutral/bearish on gold. I'm long term bullish. I don't like the deflationary news coming out of Europe and China. It's a global economy. The Fed can't inflate to the moon by itself. And currently, it has given no signs for QE3. This is bad for metals and commodities. However, I consider gold to be more of an alternative currency than anything else. I still expect the G20 to huddle and realize they like inflation better after all. Else, it's USD for me.

For silver, I'm short term bearish and long term neutral. I don't like the fact that over half the demand equation is industrial. I don't expect to see 40s for a long while. I think it's very possible we hit low 20s if 29 falls decisively. Else, I expect range trading from high 20s to mid 30s for a while. People can forget about a low gold/silver ratio. You won't have the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market this time around with their highly leveraged billion dollar accounts. They couldn't do it in this kind of environment anyway with the rise of the East. Manipulation happens both ways. 100:1 leverage can just as easily push the price up (and did). If you think that's an absurd ratio, open up a FOREX account. It's the norm for all currencies. You guys should be happy, in a sense, that margin requirements have been raised. It gets us closer to the "real" price. Silver is still up 40%. Have some perspective.

P.S.: Why don't you guys read more from gold bugs that have actual credentials, a face, and - oh, I dunno - a real name? They're not optimistic enough for ya? I mean, blogs like Turd's are good places for technical discussions (which this thing has long since drifted away from) or sharing of news but there's too much pumping from random people with $500 newsletters and self-affirming radio shows (that aren't really on the radio) to draw in large numbers of subscribers for their advertisers. I'm not sold on Turd myself. He might just be repeating technical levels he got somewhere else. I'm skeptical of anybody that uses a SNL skit as their front. At least he's not asking for money yet (far as I know). Then you end up with stuff like Andrew Maguire, who doesn't exist btw. I know, it's like finding out about the tooth fairy but really, try finding actual information about this person:

He's either the creation of Max Keiser "Soze" or Bill Murphy. But because he's hiding out and his life is in danger or whatever, he'll never come out in public to drop his bombshell. It's funny how conspiracy theorists are so paranoid and gullible at the same time. You just gotta feed them the right bag of oats.