Robert Shaw Chorale

Shenandoah

O Tannenbaum

In the Bleak Midwinter

shale gas - article

Shale Gas – It Ain’t Everything They Said It Would Be

By the Casey Research Energy Team

from Casey's Daily Dispatch, September 29, 2011

Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Warns America (1929)

Steal from the Devil: The Story of Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Preaching About Alcohol

quoting Chris Mayer

Opportunity Now

It’s hard to believe autumn’s days are here already. As the poet Charles Bukowski wrote, “The days run away like wild horses over the hills.” The leaves are already turning. The air is getting cooler. The sunsets come earlier. The fall seasonal brews have been tapped.

I love the changing of the seasons, and it always puts me in a thoughtful mood. I guess because it makes me more conscious of the passage of time, something you can lose in the day-to-day tending to a life.

Such thinking also tends to force some perspective. I think the world is full of opportunity. I think it is a great time to be an investor. Of course, with the constant onslaught of depressing news out there, it’s not always easy to remain alert to these opportunities.

Recently I received an email from a reader of my Capital & Crisis newsletter. I thought the email echoed pretty well some of the concerns investors have right now, so I’d like to take the opportunity to address a few of those points today.


“If the bank stocks run into trouble and there is less liquidity in the market, will that not impact on business in general? Will it not affect businesses that are otherwise well run and in good shape? Will it not bring about a contraction overall?”
The short answers are yes, yes and yes. But those things are hard to predict. In fact, I would say they are impossible to predict reliably and make money. If what I’m saying weren’t true, then a lot more economists would be richer investors. Yet the greatest investors — Graham, Buffett, Klarman, Greenblatt, Whitman, Lynch and many others — are not economists. Not only that, but they pretty much ignored economic forecasting altogether.

In my experience, there is little point in going through life thinking every year is going to be 1929. As an investor, you have to invest through good times and bad. I gave you my personal example, in which I’ve managed my own money through two periods when the market was cut in half from peak to trough (2000-2002 and 2007-2009) yet each time my account rose in value far more than it fell going in. The same was true in Capital & Crisis in the latter crash. (It wasn’t around for the first one.) I think this 2011 episode will bring the same result.


“Now, I know that you believe in finding businesses for which all the fundamentals are good, but surely these too will be negatively impacted if the above scenario is correct. You quoted Buffett as to the fear factor — ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ — but is it not still early days? Do you not think that the fear factor will rise still more if the above scenario comes to pass?”
We don’t know if these are the early days. Things could get worse or they could get better. I come at these things with wide historical perspective. I can show you how every decade there are people who think it is end of days. Yet each time, humanity figures out a way to move forward and markets recover. Then the market cycle repeats, endlessly, through the years.

What’s interesting in our times is that we’ve had several crises packed closely together. And things seem to unfold at hyper speed. But otherwise, I am of the opinion that what we are suffering from is just another turn of the market wheel in a long history of such turns.

Humanity has done an awful lot of self-defeating things. Yet somehow, here we are. Despite all that the 20th century threw at it, the stock market still produced many sparkling gems, a long list of iconic franchises — Wal-Mart, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Home Depot, Apple and many more. I think the 21st century will be no different. We’ll have many calamities, but we’ll also create many opportunities.

I believe in people and incentives and the idea that the true economics of a business will prove out over time. I believe in the classic principles of investing for the long haul that have served so many so well. I believe in patience and discipline.


“So, I guess that really I would like to know if you think that we are on the cusp of a crisis or just a temporary slowdown.”
I’ll give you the only possible honest answer: I don’t know. But here is what few others will tell you: You don’t have to know the answer to that question to succeed as an investor. George Soros, the billionaire speculator, once said, “My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events.” And Warren Buffett said, “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, but nothing about the future.”

It’s something of a myth that great investors are great forecasters. They aren’t — and they realize they aren’t. They play the odds, buying cheap stocks in good businesses, backing talented people and sticking with their winning investment philosophies even when (and especially when) times got tough.

I wouldn’t invest unless you are in it for the long haul, unless you can hold onto a name for a few years. Don’t bother buying stocks if you are not committed as an owner. Think of stocks like real estate. You don’t go around willy-nilly buying real estate. Why? Because you know it is not easy to sell. It’s a hassle. So you are careful about what you buy.

This is why, getting back to the reader’s initial concern, the much- ballyhooed benefit of “liquidity” — the ability to buy and sell with ease without impacting the price of the asset — is the most overblown idea on the planet as far as finance goes. In 1960, the stock market turned over about 14% of its names. Meaning, people held stocks for, on average, seven years. Nobody complained about liquidity. Today, the whole market turns over in less than eight months. There are few owners anymore.

In the end, there will always be people telling you what can’t be done. I’ve heard this chorus since I started writing Capital & Crisis for the public in 2004. But I feel oddly optimistic. I feel like now is one of those times — like the pit of 2008 and early 2009 — at which we’ll look back and be glad we stayed in the game.

Of course, only time will tell. Until then, don’t forget to enjoy the present — the tasty fall brews, the company of friends and family and “the teeming autumn, big with rich increase” — as the old Bard had it.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

gold

Here are some words from Master Kenny:

“If December does NOT correct with lower closes over the next one or two days, but instead closes above $1695 over the next several days, then our figures would consider this corrective action as finished – albeit the normal back and forth widening action to come, notwithstanding. The other option (still in play), is a continuation of a V bottom and a spike rally moving very quickly up to the second resistance level at $1800/$1850, with very little widening along the way.”

jsmineset.com

#2 - another good post from zyphen

Surprised I'm back?

Submitted by Zyphen on September 30, 2011 - 3:11pm.

Me too.

I saw that my original post got hat tipped way more than expected from this crowd. I had thought the self styled troll hunters and conspiracy nuts were representative of the forum. I actually got mail asking me for more opinions. Trying to escape the church of PMs?

No one seems to have noticed that I advocated a long term core physical position in gold. They only heard that I was short term neutral with a bearish tilt and started frothing at the mouth. I wonder how you guys would react to real bears. Turd basically gives you guys similar advice in his last two postings but with a more optimistic tone.

Some people found my "the market is always right" statement condescending and objectionable. As I skimmed the comments, I only noticed 1 person who grasped what I was saying: that the market reflects the manipulations and maneuverings of all players (which includes you). If you're playing the game, then go figure out how the game is played and stop whining when you lose. I see a lot of mention of one Jesse Livermore on here but I'm thinking no one bothered to read any of his books. Guess who coined the phrase? Surprise, surprise. Go to wikipedia and click on the free pdf link at the bottom of his page. The man gave some good advice but was terrible at following his own rules (and went broke).

Also, I had a lot of people talking at me all at once so sorry if I didn't respond. But when I have people telling me straight up that they think the whole world is in on "it", there's really not much left for me to argue. If you don't think different banks or even different countries have differing interests, there's nothing I can say to that. That's the great part about conspiracies. It's like religion: needs little to no evidence, is hard to disprove (because it's not based in reality) and is easy to take on faith.

Anyways, if I wasn't clear about my positions, here they are (for people that care):

I'm short term neutral/bearish on gold. I'm long term bullish. I don't like the deflationary news coming out of Europe and China. It's a global economy. The Fed can't inflate to the moon by itself. And currently, it has given no signs for QE3. This is bad for metals and commodities. However, I consider gold to be more of an alternative currency than anything else. I still expect the G20 to huddle and realize they like inflation better after all. Else, it's USD for me.

For silver, I'm short term bearish and long term neutral. I don't like the fact that over half the demand equation is industrial. I don't expect to see 40s for a long while. I think it's very possible we hit low 20s if 29 falls decisively. Else, I expect range trading from high 20s to mid 30s for a while. People can forget about a low gold/silver ratio. You won't have the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market this time around with their highly leveraged billion dollar accounts. They couldn't do it in this kind of environment anyway with the rise of the East. Manipulation happens both ways. 100:1 leverage can just as easily push the price up (and did). If you think that's an absurd ratio, open up a FOREX account. It's the norm for all currencies. You guys should be happy, in a sense, that margin requirements have been raised. It gets us closer to the "real" price. Silver is still up 40%. Have some perspective.

P.S.: Why don't you guys read more from gold bugs that have actual credentials, a face, and - oh, I dunno - a real name? They're not optimistic enough for ya? I mean, blogs like Turd's are good places for technical discussions (which this thing has long since drifted away from) or sharing of news but there's too much pumping from random people with $500 newsletters and self-affirming radio shows (that aren't really on the radio) to draw in large numbers of subscribers for their advertisers. I'm not sold on Turd myself. He might just be repeating technical levels he got somewhere else. I'm skeptical of anybody that uses a SNL skit as their front. At least he's not asking for money yet (far as I know). Then you end up with stuff like Andrew Maguire, who doesn't exist btw. I know, it's like finding out about the tooth fairy but really, try finding actual information about this person:

He's either the creation of Max Keiser "Soze" or Bill Murphy. But because he's hiding out and his life is in danger or whatever, he'll never come out in public to drop his bombshell. It's funny how conspiracy theorists are so paranoid and gullible at the same time. You just gotta feed them the right bag of oats.

quoting Morris Hubbart

The dollar rally already now appears to be starting a topping out process. This process that is topping the dollar is also creating substantial bottoming action in gold and commodities. I expect this process to take another two weeks. I want to own more gold while the “sale” is on.

(GDXJ) Everything on the above chart is in place for a mind blowing rally, and believe me, I’m fully aware of the shell-shocked state most of you juniors investors are in right now, and have been in for years.

(DJIA) I see the dollar topping out in the next two or three weeks. That also means I see the stock market bottoming inside of 2-3 weeks. The window for booking profits on short sales is closing fast, but is still open, and the possibility of a heavy drop in the market is likely in this very short time span.

I know this may come as a bit of a shock, but I believe the next leg of weakness in the stock market could be purchased quite aggressively. Personally, I am directing my main buys towards gold, silver, gold stocks, crude oil, and agricultural commodities!

Sep 30, 2011
Morris Hubbartt

zyphen

Found this entry penned by "zyphen" on a blog which otherwise isn't worth linking to.

Submitted by Zyphen on September 28, 2011 - 2:30pm.

I've followed this blog off and on for a long time (since a year before it moved). While I often do not agree with the reasoning behind why moves occur, I do like to compare notes on support/resistance levels with this "Turd" fellow and other traders/bloggers in the PM game.

I just want to make a few observations here to help out some would-be traders and overleveraged perma-bulls:

1. The market is always right. Why? Because you're in it. It doesn't care about your rationalizations or reasoning. The price is what it is because the market says so. End of discussion.

2. Everyone on here is small-time. All of you put together won't make a fraction of a cent of difference in the price of gold. You can buy all the physical you want from all the small time dealers you can find. It doesn't matter. What moves the price are banks and sovereign funds. If there's a "conspiracy" to keep the price down, then there had to have been a big "conspiracy" to move the price up because news flash: you didn't matter at all in that move. As a plankton in the sea, you just want to be lucky enough to ride that wave when the tide comes in. At least people who kept talking up China and asian funds are thinking right in terms of scale. Do the rest of you honestly think that gold has gone parabolic off your meager interests? A lot of that so-called "Evil Empire" is made up of buyers. People who question the JPM naked short rumours are asking the right questions. How can smart money be so dumb? The answer: they're not.

3. Gold is moving with the market, not opposite it. All those fantasies about gold holding up when everything else tanks? Where's your evidence? We're moving in tandem with the general market (and overall worse off). The market is telling you plain as day that when the shit hits the fan (in terms of Greece or whatever else comes down the pipeline) that it'll just be a repeat of 2008. Gold and Silver will tank along with everything else. Cash is still going to be king until the market says otherwise.

4. Physical market? That'll never BE the market unless the global economy actually collapses. If you're 100% in physical, it's because you are betting that armageddon occurs. Even noted gold bugs like Marc Faber only recommend 25% allocation. Why? Because it's an insurance policy, not an investment. Frankly, if you think it's the end of the world and there will be anarchy, why stop at gold? Bypass that and go directly for the goods you'd trade that gold for: food, weapons, water, gas, etc.

5. Opportunity Cost. Relative Value. Paper has value because people believe it has value. Gold has value because people believe it has value. Of course it matters when and at what price you exchange one for the other because you could have gotten a LOT MORE of that other if you did the exchange at the right time. That's the entire point of the market or any market. Right now, people trust paper more. You go to a store, they want paper (or plastic). If you're willing to wait years and don't want to do anything with your money in terms of other investments or purchases, carry on. Otherwise, you'd better pay attention to what the market is telling you. And the market is saying it doesn't like PMs right now.

hersoveela

Show me the way to go home

Sal Bonavita plays Recuerdos de la Alhambra

Bellamy Brothers

IF I said YOU had a Beautiful Body

I Need More Of You

Casey Research

Humphreys does a great job of pushing Doug to defend his brand of no-holds-barred capitalism and the impact it would have on real people with real problems in today’s tough economy. Doug’s answers might surprise you; they will certainly educate you.

On viewing the video, Doug commented that he thought it was the best interview he’s done in a couple of decades, and we agree.

Short long term gov't bonds for the next ten years.

el computador

A Spanish Teacher was explaining to her class that in Spanish, unlike English, nouns are designated as either masculine or feminine.

'House' for instance, is feminine: 'la casa'
'Pencil' however, is masculine: 'el lapiz'

A student asked, 'What gender is 'computer'?'

Instead of giving the answer, the teacher split the class into two groups, male and female, and asked them to decide for themselves whether computer should be a masculine or a feminine noun. Each group was asked to give four reasons for its recommendation.

The men's group decided that 'computer' should definitely be of the feminine gender ('la computadora') because:

1. No one but their creator understands their internal logic;

2.The native language they use to communicate with other computers is incomprehensible to everyone else;

3. Even the smallest mistakes are stored in long term memory for possible later retrieval; and

4. As soon as you make a commitment to one, you find yourself spending half your paycheck on accessories for it.

(THIS GETS BETTER!)

The women's group, however, concluded that computers should be masculine ('el computador') because:

1. In order to do anything with them, you have to turn them on;

2. They have a lot of data but still can't think for themselves;

3. They are supposed to help you solve problems, but half the time they ARE the problem; and

4. As soon as you commit to one, you realize that if you had waited a little longer, you could have gotten a better model.

The women won.

Send this to all the smart women you know,
and all the men that have a sense of humour.

~~~//~~~

quoting Bill Bonner

Why Economic Growth is Not a Sure Thing

What if everything you thought you knew about investing wasn’t so? Or, to put it another way...what if everything you learned about investing was learned in an unusual period in investment history? A period that won’t be repeated in our lifetimes?

You’re used to stocks going up, right? But they don’t always go up. They only go up — in general — when the economy grows.

But economies always grow, right?

Well, maybe not. How much did the economy grow in 2011 BC? Nobody knows, right? But we’ll take a guess. It didn’t grow at all.

And guess how the real economy in the US is growing this year? Probably about as much as it did 4,000 years ago.

No, we’re not kidding. The numbers are all over the place. But they’re all near zero. Even the feds say the economy is “barely” growing...or that the ‘recovery is very fragile.’

Guess how many jobs the economy added in 2011BC? We don’t know that either, but we’ll take another guess: zero.

Okay... You see where we’re going with this. This economy sucks, right?

But here’s the thing. You think the suckiness of this economy is a temporary thing. You think the economy USUALLY does okay. You think that there is something inherent in technology...that it is always finding new and better ways to do things...and that as a result we all get richer all the time, right?

Well, what if you’re wrong?

What’s the measure of wealth? Here’s one way to look at it. It’s how much output you can get from a unit of time. You take your bare hands...you try to dig a ditch. Your output is very limited. So, in a remarkable breakthrough, someone invents a spade! The first ones are made of wood. But they get better and better. Now, with a steel spade in his hands a man can dig much more hole in the same amount of time. He is richer. He can produce more. He can improve his standard of living just by using the tools he has available to him.

But then what? Then...maybe 5,000 years after the invention of the first hoe, a man invents a machine to do the digging...a backhoe. Now he’s really smoking. With a backhoe he can dig 10...20...times faster than a man with a regular hoe.

The first mechanical diggers are clumsy. Steam-powered. But gradually they get better. Now, they’re so smooth and responsive a good backhoe operator can use them to light a man’s cigarette for him. No kidding, it’s included in backhoe rodeo contests.

Mechanical diggers have been around for 100 years. They’ve gotten bigger and better. Presumably, each new generation of machines pays off. But not like they used to. The first backhoes produced huge new gains in productivity. The last produced only marginal gains.

Meanwhile, the energy needed to run the machines becomes more expensive. At 15 cents a gallon, the investment in fuel and machinery was almost sure to be worth it. Now, at $4 a gallon, a man has to think twice. If he has a small hole to dig, he might be better off digging it with a spade!

The energy revolution may have peaked. Growth may be a thing of the past.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

quoting Byron King

Looking at Uranium...Again

Uranium is still a “Buy”...maybe now more than ever.

The disaster in Japan slammed the uranium sector...and it still has not recovered. But this washout looks like a buying opportunity, as long as you’re not in a hurry to make a big gain.

I won’t go into the Japan-specific details, but for our purposes, it’s a safe bet that the Japan disaster means that we may not see a large-scale “nuclear renaissance” during the next generation.

Why not? Well, just consider the ability of people to mobilize opposition to large-scale energy development — especially something with the media-driven fear factor of nuclear power. Looking ahead, it’ll be hard for any new nuclear program, anywhere, to make headway. Yes, we’ll see developments here and there — more in China, say, than in the US. But we probably won’t see a global breakout into the nuclear power space.

Still, the fact is that the world has an installed base of over 400 nuclear power reactors, and these systems generate almost 20% of the world’s electricity. The problem is there’s not enough new uranium coming out of the mines and mills of the world to keep these plants running. One key source of nuclear fuel for the past decade has been decommissioned atomic warheads from the Cold War era. But that source is soon about to dry up — in 2013, to be precise.

The investment point is there’s a looming uranium shortage, within the next two years. Two years? That may as well be tomorrow in terms of finding new sources of industrial supply. Two years really means “now,” as in today. This means that the existing players have to step up the pace. It also means that there’s room for new players and growth within the primary uranium and yellowcake spaces.

In my investment letter, Oustanding Investments, I recommended Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) early in 2006. The stock is down 40% since then! You see, even the nation’s #1-rated investment letter misfires from time to time. Usually, I would suggest cutting losses long before a stock had fallen this much. But I think Cameco is an exception. It is a blue chip company that has faced some very bad luck.

Canada-based Cameco is one of the world’s largest uranium producers. Its shares were trading at over $42 each early in 2011, but crashed to below $30 after the Japan disaster in March. Then, over the past summer, Cameco shares have continued drifting lower. Today, they trade for $21.75.

Last week, Cameco launched a $520 million hostile takeover bid for a much smaller uranium firm named Hathor Exploration. Cameco wants to get hold of Hathor’s high-grade “Roughrider” deposit in Saskatchewan’s prolific Athabasca Basin. Whatever the technical merits of the transaction, this news just dropped Cameco shares to near $20.

At the current share price, Cameco has a price-earnings ratio of 18, with a dividend yield of 1.9%. Yet if uranium pricing firms up over the next year — leading up to the post-2013 looming shortage — Cameco’s earnings could and should increase strongly. So here’s a large company whose shares, on the fundamentals, are poised for a recovery.

Yes, there’s a downside with Cameco from here. But in my view, there’s a strong upside to Cameco as well. Indeed, I think the chances of Cameco going to $30 are better than the chances the share price will drift too far below $20. Cameco is a buy.

Regards,

Byron King
for The Daily Reckoning

Anita Carter

Loving Him Was Easy ~~//~~ All Smiles Tonight ~~//~~ Sunny Side of Spain ~~//~~ When My Blue Moon Turns to Gold (with Hank Snow)

Sacred Music

A Christian hymn composed by Horatius Bonar in 1846. Sung in the video by the Antrim Mennonite Choir, from their album 'Amazing Grace.' I Heard the Voice of Jesus Say ~~//~~ A Christian hymn about Heaven, composed by Fanny Crosby in 1885. Meet Me There ~~//~~ Softly and Tenderly ~~//~~ Day by Day

Wilf Carter

A Cashbox For A Heart ~~//~~ What Price Must I Pay? ~~//~~ The Old Rugged Cross ~~//~~ Grandma's Courtin Again

Hobos Song of the Mounties 1934 ~~//~~ No letter today 1944 ~~//~~ I'm Thinking Tonight of My Blue Eyes

Wilf Carter (December 18, 1904 - December 5, 1996), also known as Montana Slim, was a Canadian country music singer, songwriter, guitarist, and yodeller. Widely acknowledged as the father of Canadian country music, Carter was Canada's first country music star, inspiring a generation of young Canadian performers. ~ Wikipedia

The Story Of Country Music

01 - The Carter Family

02 - Jimmie Rodgers

03 - Roy Acuff, and the Grand Ole Opry

04 Bill Monroe Louvin Brothers

05 Emmylou Harris


07 Hank Williams

08 Hank Williams & The Kings Of Honky Tonk

09 From Hank To Lefty


10 From Lefty To Elvis

11 Chet Atkins And The Nashville Sound

12 Jim Reeves

13 Willie, Waylon & The Boys

14 From Buck Owens to Grahm Parsons

15 The new traditionalists

.

ginmillsinger

I Don't Remember Loving You

Where Could I Go, (but to the Lord)

Just A Little Talk With Jesus
.

Karen Marie Garrett

Simple Things
.