5i Research - opinion on gold

November 22, 2012 (asked by Lance)

Question: Hi Peter: Portfolio questions about Gold:

In your view, is it necessary to maintain gold exposure all the time (given that the portfolio is small enough to maintain reasonable liquidity and allow one to be nimble) or is it something that one can move in and out of depending on how things are going?

In either case, what signs would cause you to increase/decrease exposure?

On a percentage of total investments basis, how much gold exposure do you think is appropriate at present and how high or how low could you see that going over the next few years?

Can one's gold exposure be expected to provide a good ROI, even if the various things it is supposed to hedge against aren't materializing over the next few years?

Finally, what category of gold investments would you favour to provide both the hedge/insurance aspect and a decent prospect of a return in the meantime. Thanks!


5i Research Answer:

We will answer in order of the questions.

(1) Unless you can time exactly when gold will spike (we can't!) we would always have some gold exposure. It is like insurance. You wouldn't take insurance off your house and then back on again.

(2) We would increase gold exposure on signs of (a) a rollover in the world economy. At this stage, if the ecomomy weakens further, there is only one option for governments :keep printing currency and spending. Any other option would be too dire for the economy to handle. (b) any increase in money velocity. Not to go into economics, but right now there is lots of cash in the system. However, inflation is low because no one is 'worried' about inflation enough to start lending, spending, hiring, and getting rid of cash (which would decline in value in inflation). If banks start lending aggressively, asset prices increase and so on, then that cash in the system will start moving fast, and inflation (and gold) will likely go up. We are, however, not near that point right now, but there is so much liquidity in the world in could happen before we expect it.

3) We would suggest 10% to 15% gold exposure now, going as high as 20% to 25% if and when inflation kicks in. Under an ideal gold scenario, however, your percentage would get higher quickly from 10% without further additional buying.

(4) We would not 'expect' much from gold in terms of ROI. But it will do exceptionally well under the right conditions, and as insurance needs to be there.

(5) Right now, we would buy senior gold companies paying dividends. They will do well under the right conditions, are far less risky than trying to pick a junior, and will provide some degree of income while we wait for inflation to kick in.

www.5iresearch.ca
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“Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid”.

Chapter 8 - Drowning Again

http://www.grandich.com/2012/10/a-debilitating-illness-few-will-still-openly-talk-about/

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translation

tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito

The Institute's official motto is Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito, which comes from Virgil's Aeneid, Book VI; the motto means "do not give in to evil but proceed ever more boldly against it." Early in his life, Mises chose this sentence to be his guiding principle in life. It is prominently displayed throughout the Institute's campus, on their website, and on memorabilia.

sláinte mhaith

Gaelic for 'Good Health'

http://www.kereport.com/2012/10/13/real-party/

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The Parrot and the Magician

A magician was working on a cruise ship. Since the audience was different each week, the magician did the same tricks over and over again.

There was only one problem: The captain's parrot saw the shows each week and began to understand how the magician did every trick.

Once he understood, he started shouting in the middle of the show, "Look, it's not the same hat!" or, "Look, he's hiding the flowers under the table!" Or, "Hey, why are all the cards the ace of spades?"

The magician was furious but couldn't do anything. It was, after all, the Captain's' parrot.

Then one stormy night on the Pacific, the ship unfortunately sank, drowning almost all who were on board. The magician luckily found himself on a piece of wood floating in the middle of the sea, as fate would have it, with the parrot.

They stared at each other with hatred, but did not utter a word.

This went on for a day... then two days, and then three days. Finally, on the fourth day, the parrot could not hold back any longer and said...

"OK, I give up. Where's the bloody ship?"

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Five (5) lessons about the way we treat people

1 - First Important Lesson - Cleaning Lady.


During my second month of college, our professor

Gave us a pop quiz. I was a conscientious student

and had breezed through the questions until I read

the last one:

"What is the first name of the woman who cleans the school?"

Surely this was some kind of joke. I had seen the

cleaning woman several times. She was tall,

dark-haired and in her 50's, but how would I know her name?


I handed in my paper, leaving the last question

blank. Just before class ended, one student asked if

the last question would count toward our quiz grade.

"Absolutely, " said the professor.. "In your careers,

you will meet many people. All are significant.. They

deserve your attention and care, even if all you do

is smile and say "hello.."

I've never forgotten that lesson.. I also learned her

name was Dorothy.



2. - Second Important Lesson - Pickup in the Rain

One night, at 11:30 p.m., an older African American

woman was standing on the side of an Alabama highway

trying to endure a lashing rain storm. Her car had

broken down and she desperately needed a ride.

Soaking wet, she decided to flag down the next car.

A young white man stopped to help her, generally

unheard of in those conflict-filled 1960's. The man

took her to safety, helped her get assistance and

put her into a taxicab.


She seemed to be in a big hurry, but wrote down his

address and thanked him. Seven days went by and a

knock came on the man's door. To his surprise, a

giant console color TV was delivered to his home. A

special note was attached.

It read:

"Thank you so much for assisting me on the highway

the other night. The rain drenched not only my

clothes, but also my spirits. Then you came along.

Because of you, I was able to make it to my dying

husband's' bedside just before he passed away... God

Bless you for helping me and unselfishly serving

others."

Sincerely,

Mrs. Nat King Cole.


3 - Third Important Lesson - Always remember those

who serve.


In the days when an ice cream sundae cost much less,

A 10-year-old boy entered a hotel coffee shop and

sat at a table.. A waitress put a glass of water in

front of him.


"How much is an ice cream sundae?" he asked.

"Fifty cents," replied the waitress.

The little boy pulled his hand out of his pocket and

studied the coins in it.

"Well, how much is a plain dish of ice cream?" he inquired.

By now more people were waiting for a table and the

waitress was growing impatient..

"Thirty-five cents," she brusquely replied.

The little boy again counted his coins.

"I'll have the plain ice cream," he said.

The waitress brought the ice cream, put the bill on

the table and walked away The boy finished the ice

cream, paid the cashier and left.. When the waitress

came back, she began to cry as she wiped down the

table. There, placed neatly beside the empty dish,

were two nickels and five pennies..


You see, he couldn't have the sundae, because he had

to have enough left to leave her a tip.


4 - Fourth Important Lesson. - The obstacle in Our Path.

In ancient times, a King had a boulder placed on a

roadway. Then he hid himself and watched to see if

anyone would remove the huge rock. Some of the

King's' wealthiest merchants and courtiers came by

and simply walked around it.. Many loudly blamed the

King for not keeping the roads clear, but none did

anything about getting the stone out of the way.


Then a peasant came along carrying a load of

vegetables.. Upon approaching the boulder, the

peasant laid down his burden and tried to move the

stone to the side of the road. After much pushing

and straining, he finally succeeded. After the

peasant picked up his load of vegetables, he noticed

a purse lying in the road where the boulder had

been. The purse contained many gold coins and a note

from the King indicating that the gold was for the

person who removed the boulder from the roadway. The

peasant learned what many of us never understand!


Every obstacle presents an opportunity to improve

our condition.


5 - Fifth Important Lesson - Giving When it Counts....


Many years ago, when I worked as a volunteer at a

hospital, I got to know a little girl named Liz who

was suffering from a rare & serious disease. Her only

chance of recovery appeared to be a blood

transfusion from her 5-year old brother, who had

miraculously survived the same disease and had

developed the antibodies needed to combat the

illness. The doctor explained the situation to her

little brother, and asked the little boy if he would

be willing to give his blood to his sister.


I saw him hesitate for only a moment before taking a

deep breath and saying, "Yes I'll do it if it will save

her." As the transfusion progressed, he lay in bed

next to his sister and smiled, as we all did, seeing

the color returning to her cheek. Then his face

grew pale and his smile faded.


He looked up at the doctor and asked with a

trembling voice, "Will I start to die right away".


Being young, the little boy had misunderstood the

doctor; he thought he was going to have to give his

sister all of his blood in order to save her.

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BEP.UN

Dennis Mitchell on BNN Market Call Minute (@05:00)
- owns BEP.UN - buy at $30 or better.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip743489

~~~~~//~~~~~

Canadian Wealth Advisor July 2012
- $29 rated Best Buy - Extra Risk

from Lesley

The Invitation - Peter Makena

Lyrics

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Canuck2004 Says: September 13th, 2012 at 10:33 am

Well I took a look at the site… I can only see the top 5 before registering… nothing there I’m not aware of… except I would NOT buy TransAlta…I owned that one many years ago…20?…long time ago… it always has problems with earnings and the dividend is never safe… personally I stay away from it.

EMERA is a better long term pick, if you can get it cheap. Electric Utilities are great long term holds, if you can get them cheap…which they are not right now.

The big 5 banks are a no-brainer… buy them when the yield is at or over 5%, and long term you will be happy. They have never cut the yields in living memory and they tend to raise them several times a year, in normal years. Great long term holds.

REITs are great, but they are rather expensive in here as per emergency low rates…some day the rates will return to normal and these may suffer. You want to know which ones to buy? Follow what the REIT specialists tell you on BNN, Dennis Mitchell for instance, but there are others.

Telcos and pipelines are next, again quite expensive here.

Remember, FINANCIALS always lead out of a recession… you cannot have an economic expansion without the participation of the financials…. Banks, Insurance, etc. is where investors should be looking… in anticipation of a return to normalcy in the world economy.

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2012/09/13/tech-talk-for-thursday-september-13th-2012/#comments

Ken Davis

KEN DAVIS SERIOUSLY FUNNY DVD 1 OF 6

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XIU ytd chart

Enbridge ENB in hypothetical portfolio

Click on image to enlarge.

Down and out wheat addiction

Posted on August 14, 2012 by Dr. Davis

Anne posted this comment. Her story provides a perfect example of the wheat withdrawal process we encounter when we go wheat-free.

I finished reading your book. I’m truly inspired to make a lifestyle change, but have failed at all attempts to start.

I’ll make it through a better part of the day and eventually give in. The most I have made it is 3 days. I get crabby, dizzy, lightheaded, and feel tired & weak.

Any suggestions??? I feel I’m destined to be fat forever! I’ve been overweight (50-75 lbs. for the past 10 years) and I’ve tried every diet, some extreme, but they work temporarily and I regain it back.

There are no secret remedies except to understand that Anne is an opiate addict.

She is addicted to the gliadin opiate in wheat. There is no way to become no longer addicted . . . except to stop eating it.

The gliadin protein of wheat, degraded in the gastrointestinal tract to small polypeptides that act as opiates called exorphins, cause addictive eating, food obsession, and incessant hunger; removal generates a withdrawal syndrome.

Imagine you’re an alcoholic. How do you get off alcohol? Stop drinking, of course. There is no easy solution except to remove the thing that destroyed your health in the first place. (Alcoholics do have the option of taking a class of drugs called benzodiazepines to smooth the transition, but there is no such drug for the opiate in wheat. There is, of course, the opiate-blocking drug naltrexone, but that does not smooth the withdrawal, only provoke its onset.)

So Anne must brace herself for a withdrawal effect that may last 5 days, 7 days, occasionally longer. Given her emotional and physical turmoil, she is best choosing a non-stressful period to do so, e.g., vacation, not a high-pressure week at work. Don’t expect to exercise or meet new challenges during wheat withdrawal because it will only make you miserable, your performance will be awful. Having anything made of wheat to soften the blow will only reinvigorate the addiction and prolong the withdrawal.

Recognize that this is an absolutely crucial step in regaining health. The gliadin protein that lies at the root of wheat addiction exerts other effects, such as joint inflammation, hormonal distortions, mind “fog,” and depression. This gliadin protein, inadvertently changed during genetic manipulations of the 1970s to create the high-yield, semi-dwarf strain of wheat, lies at the root of the evil effects of this agricultural Frankengrain. Lose the wheat, thereby lose the gliadin opiate, and health and weight loss can finally proceed.

Is it any wonder that Big Food puts wheat flour in EVERYTHING?

Additional strategies that can make this sometimes terrible process a bit more tolerable include:

–Vigorous hydration
–Adding salt to your diet (unless, of course, you have some bona fide reason not to)
–Consider a probiotic–e.g., 50 billion CFUs or greater per day to accelerate the recovery of normal bowel flora and minimize the gastrointestinal disruption (gas, cramps, constipation) that results in some people.
–Consider magnesium supplementation–e.g., magnesium malate, 1200 mg twice per day
–Consider vitamin D supplementation–since it makes you feel clearer and stronger and improves health, an effect second only to wheat elimination in health benefits. Most adults require 6000 units per day in gelcap form to achieve a healthy 25-hydroxy vitamin D blood level of 60-70 ng/ml.
–Consider a high-potency multivitamin–that provides zinc, B12, B6, folate, iron (females primarily) to address the common deficiencies that develop in wheat-consuming people.
–Indulge yourself–Buy a new outfit that you will be able to wear when you lose the 40 pounds you want to get rid of. Get a massage. Watch a comedy and laugh.

You will survive! But, like an alcoholic having his last swig of bourbon, it is an absolutely necessary step to say good riddance to all wheat-containing foods.

http://www.wheatbellyblog.com/2012/08/down-and-out-wheat-addiction/
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music

Ricky Van Shelton - Mansion Over The Hilltop

Ricky Van Shelton - Suppertime

Charley Pride - Did You Think To Pray

Charley Pride - Lord, Build Me A Cabin In Glory

Ryman Gospel Reunion #1 - hour and twenty minutes

.

Music from Eileen

Foster & Allen - I'll Never Stop Wanting You

Keith Whitley & Lorrie Morgan - 'Til a Tear Becomes a Rose

Paddy O'Brien - Never Grow Old

Daniel O'Donnell - Waltz Across Texas

Isla Grant with Foster & Allen - Over The Years

Emmylou Harris, Mary Chapin Capenter & Sheryl Crow - Flesh And Blood

Conway Twitty - Somebody's Needin' Somebody

Dolly Parton, Ricky Van Shelton - Rockin' Years

Jimmy Wakely - I'll Hold You In My Arms (1948)

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Jim's mailbox

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Not much changes. In 1974 I placed an advertisement in Barrons saying gold would go to $900. That made for good laughs amongst the establishment then at Domonicos Steak House in the financial district. When in early 2000 I suggested gold would go to $1650 there were great laughs amongst the newbies. Now we are going to and through $3500. Whatever drama occurs along the way is meaningless.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/07/24/jims-mailbox-994/
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Double Bottoms

12 A classic double bottom pattern has certain technical characteristics. It is probably the most well-known pattern, but a real double bottom occurs very rarely, and only at the end of a bear market or major intermediate correction.

13 The current sell-off in gold stocks certainly qualifies as either a major correction or a full bear market. As price makes the first low, the technician wants to see volume spike sharply, and that happened here.

14 Many investors were in a state of panic as that first low occurred, and their selling is what produced that enormous volume.

15 The second low in a classic double bottom pattern needs to occur at least a month after the first one, and it should occur on much less volume. You can see that the volume on the 2nd low is dramatically less than the volume at the first low.

16 Another key “textbook” characteristic of the second low of this formation is meandering price action. Note the small black box I put on the chart. You can see that GDX price movement is currently weak and aimless.

17 The good news is that the double bottom pattern on the GDX price chart is technically perfect. The bad news is that you are living through a “super-crisis”, where personal surprise is the main theme.

18 The double bottom pattern that has formed on GDX and many individual issues is a very positive event, but it is not a guarantee. If the bearish head and shoulders pattern wins the clash of the titans fight against the bullish double bottom, it’s critical that you are able to buy GDX in the $36 area.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_072412.html
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Clive Maund

we are now approaching a seasonally bullish time of year for the Precious Metals that will a exert a positive background influence and provide a tailwind for any advance, as the following chart shows...

http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2012-07-22
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im not right in the head.com

A Cost-Effective Way for a Single Mom to Find a Mate?

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/how-best-bureaucrat
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gliadin protein of wheat

The truth is that you’ve been doping it up for most of your life. You’ve been doping it up with an opiate, not unlike heroin, Oxycontin, or morphine. You’ve been doping it up for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks. No tracks, no toothlessness, no pee stains on your trousers, no cardboard sign reading “I’m homeless and need help” . . . but you’ve still been doping it up.

You’ve been cleverly disguising your opiate of choice as muffins, bagels, breakfast cereals, and sandwiches. As with many of the dark and fascinating hidden issues surrounding modern wheat, this is the effect of the gliadin protein of wheat.

http://www.wheatbellyblog.com/2012/07/doped/

Gold to $3500 - The Rig Is Up

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/07/03/the-rig-is-up/

seasonality - silver

http://www.gracelandupdates.com/images/stories/jun12/2012jun26silver2.png

seasonality - gold

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html

not sure what this is

Jay Taylor

Price of gold as measured in dollars could go down, but the purchasing power of an ounce of gold could still increase. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip692281

USD devaluation

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The following is a note from CIGA Richard that speaks to the buying power of gold, and silliness that deflation today can be described as an increase in buying power for the dollar.

Jim,
As I type this and look on the wall at my $100 Trillion Zimbabwe Dollar note, I’m struck again by how few people understand the difference between ‘nominal’ and ‘real.’ I will not use Webster’s definitions, because with the advent of Google, even fewer folks now posses a dictionary.

Using my definitions then: - Nominal: the ‘face’ value printed on a paper fiat note. - Real: what you can really buy with that note, or these days, a whole lotta fiat notes.

While the buying power of fiat money has fallen by 96% under America’s greatest failure (the Fed), the buying power of Gold has increased ~700%. This equals the ‘invisible’ robbing of the Poor and Middle Class by the Fed. Let me give you an example of the difference between average wages in paper fiat over time, compared with equivalent ounces of Gold:

- Average wages in 1959 were $5,016 or 143oz of Gold
- Average wages in 1977 were $15,000 or 120oz of Gold
- Average wages in 1999 were $28,970 or 104oz of Gold
- Average wages in 2008 were $41,335 or 53oz of Gold

This is not exactly rocket science, yet most folks consider that they are ‘doing better’ because their nominal wages have increased over time, when in fact it takes increasing nominal amounts of debauched fiat to buy the same ounce of Gold (in effect making Gold more valuable over time in terms of buying power, as the Dollar slides into bongo-buck territory… my Zimbabwe note ref’d infra germane).

Hmmm… which would I rather have? A wheelbarrow stuffed with $100 bills that won’t buy me a loaf of bread, or 100 ounces of Gold? Gee, tough one. Too bad the Fed and our politicians (excepting Ron Paul) aren’t making any efforts to help me choose.

Meanwhile, I’m completely ignoring the very short-term white noise in the heavily manipulated bullion markets, and hanging tough until the ‘invisible hand’ has inflicted maximum pain and this temporary swoon turns around.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/05/14/jims-mailbox-931/

Saskatchewan Army

Rules for Entering Saskatchewan
1. Pull your droopy pants up. You look like an idiot.
2. Let's get this straight; I drive a pickup truck because I want to.
3. It's called a "gravelled road." No matter how slow you drive, you're going to get dust on your Lexus. Drive it or get out of the way.
4. There are cattle and oil wells. That's what they smell like to you. They smell like money to us. Get over it. Don't like it? Highways #1 and #16 go east and west, highways #6 and #2 go north and south, pick one.
5. So you have a $60,000 car. We're impressed. We have $250,000 combines that are driven only 3 weeks a year.
6. Every person in every pickup waves. It's called being friendly. Try to grasp the concept.
7. If that cell phone rings while a bunch of ducks are coming in, we WILL shoot it out of your hand. You better hope you don't have it up to your ear at the time.
8. Yeah, we eat beef and bison. You really want sushi and caviar? It's available at the corner bait shop.
9. The "Opener" refers to the first day of deer season. It's a religious holiday held the closest Saturday to the first of November.
10. We open doors for women. This applies to all women, regardless of age.
11. No, there's no "vegetarian special" on the menu. Order steak. Or you can order the Chef's Salad and pick off the 2 pounds of ham & turkey.
12. When we prepare a meal, there are three main dishes: meats, vegetables, and breads. We use three spices: salt, pepper, and Barbeque Sauce.
13. You bring "coke" into my house, it better be black, wet, and served over ice. You bring "Mary Jane" into my house, she better be cute, know how to shoot, drive a truck, and have long hair.
14. Curling and hockey are as important here as the Lakers and the Knicks, and a dang site more fun to watch.
15. Yeah, we have golf courses. But don't hit the water hazards; it spooks the fish.
16. Colleges? Try our University of Saskatchewan. They come outta there with an education, plus a love for people and country, and they still wave at passing pickups when they come for the holidays.

FAILURE TO FOLLOW THESE RULES WILL RESULT IN THE SASKATCHEWAN ARMY BEING DISPATCHED. WATCH OUT FOR OUR HOME GROWN FORM OF PRAIRIE JUSTICE! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

quoting Jesse Livermore

It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?

My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. – Jesse Livermore

Buffett buying gold miner?

On April 28, 2012 at 8:08 am, Irwin says:

Happy Saturday to all :) Seg #2: The audio is muffled, but did I hear Peter G compare miners to buggy whip manufacturers? He’s starting to give old farts with dyed moustaches a bad image. (joke) Yesterday I heard someone say that many mining companies are at or close to trading below their intrinsic value. And you know who likes to buy companies below intrinsic value? Allow me to start this rumour: Warren Buffett may be looking to buy gold in the ground.

On April 28, 2012 at 8:53 am, Mark Alan says:

Warren Buffet WILL NEVER BUY a gold mining company. They don’t receive subsidies from the government. Pay attention to Warren’s investments and you will see that he only invests in quality companies that generate cash flow, and companies that are going to be subsidized by the government and supported by legislation. Gold companies may produce cash flow, but they are not something that every day people are going to want or need.

He bought that railroad company not because of value, but because the company is going to have future contracts with the U.S. government in transporting military goods. It is also a stealth play on the commodity sector itself. Have a mine? Need your ore shipped? No problem! I know just the railroad to use! Oh don’t like the cost, ask for some financial assistance from the government and I will sign a five year contract with your company and we can ship all the ore you want. Can’t lose!

Funny thing, his father Howard was a man of decent morals and believed in a gold standard. Too bad his son is a sociopath who doesn’t care one bit about blowing up villages and the killing of innocents so that an oil company can get its pipeline laid. And his promo about “need to tax the rich more” is total bull!

On April 28, 2012 at 9:31 am, Marc says:

Mark A, Do you think Buffett will get it when the “paper” ponzi scheme we call the US Dollar collapses? Your damn right he will buy gold and silver mining shares! But, with what?! :) LOL! All the best, Marc

On April 28, 2012 at 9:39 am, Mark Alan says:

First of all, Buffett is getting old, what does it matter to him if the U.S. Dollar declines in value. He already has plays on inflation. He won’t buy mining companies because they are too risky for him. He already bought 130 million ounces of silver once.

I don’t think the dollar will collapse. I do think we will have serious problems of civil unrest and infrastructure break downs, like electric power grids. We will definitely see riots in the streets this year and they will be violent.

Buffett will not buy gold or silver stocks unless he can get a promise in writing on a guaranteed amount of income.

On April 28, 2012 at 9:59 am, Jerry O^OTB says:

Mark, it thing you are correct on Buffett,

On April 28, 2012 at 10:00 am, Jerry O^OTB says:

my typing and one eye are getting to me….should read, Mark, I think you are correct on Buffett

On April 28, 2012 at 10:18 am, Mark Alan says:

Hey Jerry
It only makes sense because IF Buffet DID BUY gold mining companies….IMAGINE WHAT MESSAGE THAT WOULD SEND TO THE CONVENTIONAL MARKETS AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC. It would be massive and the establishment don’t want that message broadcast.

On April 28, 2012 at 2:46 pm, Marc says:

Mark A., Of course, you are right. Buffett would NEVER do that. Just funnin around..stay frosty! Marc

On April 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm, Jerry O^OTB says:

Just remember , Buffit..did cash in his silver stash, and they started the SLV.., paper mkt. I think it was 190,000 tons? at $9.50 oz.., someone correct here, I am going by my 63 year old brain…and after all it was back in 05 ?

http://www.kereport.com/2012/04/28/6811/
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Ross Clark

S&P, Gold Opportunities http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/04/sp-gold-opportunities/

Toothpaste factory

A toothpaste factory had a problem: it sometimes shipped empty boxes without the tube inside. This was due to the way the production line was set up, and people with experience in designing production lines will tell you how difficult it is to have everything happen with timings so precise that every single unit coming out of it is perfect 100% of the time. Small variations in the environment (which can't be controlled in a cost-effective fashion) mean you must have quality-assurance checks smartly distributed across the line so that customers all the way down to the supermarket don't get pissed off and buy another product instead.

Understanding how important that was, the CEO of the toothpaste factory got the top people in the company together, and they decided to start a new project in which they would hire an external engineering company to solve their empty boxes problem, as the engineering department was already too stretched to take on any extra effort.

The project followed the usual process: budget and project sponsor allocated, RFP, third parties selected, and six months (and $8 million) later it had a fantastic solution - on time, on budget, high quality, and everyone in the project had a great time.

They solved the problem by using high-tech precision scales that would sound a bell and flash lights whenever a toothpaste box weighed less than it should. The line would stop; someone would walk over and yank the defective box off of it and press another button when done to re-start the line.

A while later, the CEO decides to have a look at the Return On Investment of the project: amazing results! No empty boxes ever shipped out of the factory after the scales were put in place. Very few customer complaints, and they were gaining market share. "That's some money well spent!" he said, before looking closely at the other statistics in the report.

It turned out that the number of defects picked up by the scales was zero after three weeks of production use. It should have picked up at least a dozen a day, so maybe there was something wrong with the report. He requested an inquiry, and after some investigation, the engineers came back saying the report was actually correct. The scales really weren't picking up any defects, because all boxes that got to that point in the conveyor belt were good.

Puzzled, the CEO traveled down to the factory and walked up to the part of the line where the precision scales were installed.

A few feet before the scale was a cheap desk fan, blowing the empty boxes out of the belt and into a bin.

"Oh, that," says one of the workers, "One of the guys put it there 'cause he was tired of walking over every time the bell rang."

Pennant Pure Yield Fund

Mark and Bill

Mark Lowry & Bill Gaither Comedy - "Turn Your Radio On"

Gaither (Toronto) - Just A Little While

Gaither Homecoming - God of the Mountain - live with Lynda Randle
.

Has water entered my ship?

In 1923, eight of the wealthiest people in the world met. Their combined wealth, it is estimated, exceeded the wealth of the government of the United States at that time.

These men certainly knew how to make a living and accumulate wealth.

But let's examine what happened to them 25 years later.

1. President of the largest steel company, Charies Schwab, lived on borrowed capital for five years before he died bankrupt.

2. President of the largest gas company, Howard Hubson, went insane.

3. One of the greatest commodity traders, Arthur Cutton, died insolvent.

4. President of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, was sent to jail.

5. A member of the President's Cabinet, Albert Fall, was pardoned from jail to go home and die in peace.

6. The greatest "bear" on Wall Street, Jessie Livermore, committed suicide.

7. President of the world's greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger, committed suicide.

8. President of the Bank of International Settlement, Leon Fraser, Committed Suicide.

What they forgot was how to make life! Money in itself is not evil!

Money provides food for the hungry, medicine for the sick, clothes for the needy; Money is only a medium of exchange.

We need two kinds of education.

.....a) One that teaches us how to make a living and


......b) one that teaches us how to live.

There are people who are so engrossed in their professional life that they neglect their family, health and social responsibilities.

If asked why they do this they would reply that they were doing it for their family.

Our kids are sleeping when we leave home.

They are sleeping when we come home.

Twenty years later, we'll turn back, and they'll all be gone.

Without water, a ship cannot move.

The ship needs water, but if the water gets into the ship, the ship will face problems. What was once a means of living for the ship will now become a means of destruction.

Similarly we live in time where earning is necessity but let not the earning enter our hearts, for what was once a means of living will become a means of destruction.

So take a moment and ask yourself - Has water entered my ship?

Kimmie Rhodes

Kimmie Rhodes & Willie Nelson - Contrabandistas

Kimmie Rhodes - Wild Roses

Kimmie Rhodes - love me like a song (with Willie)
.

A Golden Idea - Jim Sinclair

April 5, 2012
Dear Friends,

What we need is the second coming of a determined trader so convinced of his/her opinion and feel for the market that taking on the gold banks would seem like a divine calling.

The same stuff we see today went on in the great gold bull market of the 1970s. Then I was a kid in my mid 30s with more guts than is usually good for ones financial health.

I watched the gold dealer’s brokers, then of Phillips Brothers and J. Aron, running the living hell out of the gold gang with the locals jumping on the bandwagon the moment the dealers showed their selling interest. I also saw the same quietly covering by the brokers for the dealers taking back their sells after they had bullied the market lower, exactly like the Goldmans and their pals do today.

read more here ...
.

Why gold should thrive - Frank Holmes

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes041112.html
.

Top five regrets of the dying

A nurse has recorded the most common regrets of the dying, and among the top ones is 'I wish I hadn't worked so hard'. What would your biggest regret be if this was your last day of life?

There was no mention of more sex or bungee jumps. A palliative nurse who has counselled the dying in their last days has revealed the most common regrets we have at the end of our lives. And among the top, from men in particular, is 'I wish I hadn't worked so hard'.

Bronnie Ware is an Australian nurse who spent several years working in palliative care, caring for patients in the last 12 weeks of their lives. She recorded their dying epiphanies in a blog called Inspiration and Chai, which gathered so much attention that she put her observations into a book called The Top Five Regrets of the Dying.

Ware writes of the phenomenal clarity of vision that people gain at the end of their lives, and how we might learn from their wisdom. "When questioned about any regrets they had or anything they would do differently," she says, "common themes surfaced again and again."

Here are the top five regrets of the dying, as witnessed by Ware:

1. I wish I'd had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.

"This was the most common regret of all. When people realise that their life is almost over and look back clearly on it, it is easy to see how many dreams have gone unfulfilled. Most people had not honoured even a half of their dreams and had to die knowing that it was due to choices they had made, or not made. Health brings a freedom very few realise, until they no longer have it."

2. I wish I hadn't worked so hard.

"This came from every male patient that I nursed. They missed their children's youth and their partner's companionship. Women also spoke of this regret, but as most were from an older generation, many of the female patients had not been breadwinners. All of the men I nursed deeply regretted spending so much of their lives on the treadmill of a work existence."

3. I wish I'd had the courage to express my feelings.

"Many people suppressed their feelings in order to keep peace with others. As a result, they settled for a mediocre existence and never became who they were truly capable of becoming. Many developed illnesses relating to the bitterness and resentment they carried as a result."

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.

"Often they would not truly realise the full benefits of old friends until their dying weeks and it was not always possible to track them down. Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were many deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone misses their friends when they are dying."

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier.

"This is a surprisingly common one. Many did not realise until the end that happiness is a choice. They had stayed stuck in old patterns and habits. The so-called 'comfort' of familiarity overflowed into their emotions, as well as their physical lives. Fear of change had them pretending to others, and to their selves, that they were content, when deep within, they longed to laugh properly and have silliness in their life again."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2012/feb/01/top-five-regrets-of-the-dying?commentpage=1#start-of-comments
.

Charles Nenner - March 28, 2012

http://watch.bnn.ca/business-day/march-2012/business-day-march-28-2012/ShowAllClips/#clip646638

BNN Business Day
.

Seasonality - years ending in "2"

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2012/04/09/tech-talk-for-monday-april-9th-2012/

When to quit gold

The Critical Number for Gold

"Implications for Investors

"Armed with these data, there are definite steps you can take with your investments at this point, as well as reasonable expectations you can have going forward:

"You can buy gold today. As long as real interest rates are negative, gold will remain in a bull market. If you already own some gold, you can and should ask yourself if it's enough at a time when money in the bank is a losing proposition.
"Don't get flummoxed when you hear talk about rising rates. Watch the real rate instead.
"In our opinion, real rates will be negative for some time for the simple reason that we think inflation will be rising for some time. Ask yourself: Will the Fed and other central banks raise rates aggressively enough to catch up to inflation? Someday, sure… but not anytime soon.
"When real rates turn positive, especially above 2%, it may be time to sell. "We'll have to see what's going on in the world at that time; if there's financial chaos, the fear factor could cause gold to depart from this historic pattern. But even if not, keep in mind that while the price of gold fluctuates every day, the shift out of gold-based investments won't occur overnight. There should be time to gain clarity.

"There are a lot of reasons to own gold today, and there will likely be more before it's time to say goodbye. In the meantime, we take comfort in the fact that the strongest historical indicator of all tells us the gold bull market is alive and well and has years to play out.

Carpe aurum."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/critical-number-gold
.

Sugar: the bitter truth

Sugar: The Bitter Truth

Robert H. Lustig, MD, UCSF Professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Endocrinology, explores the damage caused by sugary foods. He argues that fructose (too much) and fiber (not enough) appear to be cornerstones of the obesity epidemic through their effects on insulin.

Beating the Street - Peter Lynch

From chapter 5 – MAGELLAN – The Middle Years

Early in my tenure, we formalized the swapping of information. Our random powwows in the hallway near the refrigerator were superseded by a scheduled event in a conference room, where all the analysts and fund managers presented our picks of the week.

Later, I presided over these meetings with a small kitchen timer, which I pretended to set at three minutes – the official time limit for any defense or explanation of a pick. In fact, I was setting the timer at progressively shorter intervals, until I got it down to a minute and a half. I'm confessing this now that it's too late for anyone to demand a chance to make up the lost time.

People were too excited about their favorite subject to notice that I was fooling with the timer. Anyway, 90 seconds is plenty of time to tell the story of a stock. If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored.

These sessions of ours were not put-down contests. Wall Street tends to be a combative environment where only the glibbest survive, but combat is not the best way to arrive at the truth about stocks. When you are openly criticized for your ideas, you may tend to hold back the next time. And when there's a chorus of criticism, you're likely to lose faith in your own research.

A hostile reception might not affect your confidence immediately, but the brain never forgets a painful experience. It will remember that every person in the room ridiculed the notion that Chrysler was an exceptional bargain at $5 a share. Then one night a year or more later, when the stock's at $10 and the brain has nothing better to do, it will remind you that “maybe all those smart people were right,” and the next day you'll wake up and sell your Chrysler about $30 a share too soon.

Sarah Palin

Last Frontier Women Don’t Tolerate Misogynists
.

Trepidation in the gold market

http://www.kereport.com/2012/03/22/6344/
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Alberta politics

Alberta Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith unveiled her party's campaign bus in Edmonton, Monday, March 19, 2012 shown in a photo taken from the social media website Twitter. The unveiling of her campaign bus has gone viral on Twitter but not for any reasons related to the upcoming election.The bus includes a large picture of Danielle Smith on the side, with the two rear wheels over her chest. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO-Twitter

Seasonality - BAM.A

music

CHORAL MUSIC - O FOR A THOUSAND TONGUES TO SING

The Rose: Peterborough Male Voice Choir

"I'll Have A New Life" By The Homecoming Friends
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Shenandoah (1965)

Shenandoah (1965) 1:40:54

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7QixTX1XL0&feature=related

.

First Truly Global Billionaire Investor

In 1939, just as the Second World War landed on Europe's doorsteps, a 26-year-old American investor borrowed a then princely sum of $10,000 ($170,000 in today's dollars), in order to invest approximately $100 each in 104 Old-World companies. After holding those stocks for an average of just four years, he effectively quadrupled his money, netting himself a small fortune.

This was the start of nearly seven decades of successful investing that would see the young man from a poor family in Winchester, Tennessee, knighted by Queen Elizabeth, become a billionaire, and earn wide recognition as one of the world's foremost authorities on global investing.

His name? John Templeton.

caseyresearch.com

Investment tips for 2012

Watch for these consolidations in 2012:


1. Hale Business Systems, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Fuller Brush, and W. R. Grace Co...

will merge and become: Hale, Mary, Fuller, Grace.



2. Polygram Records, Warner Bros. and Zesta Crackers join forces and become:

Poly-Warner Cracker.



3. 3M will merge with Goodyear and become: MMMGood.



4. Zippo Manufacturing, Audi Motors, Dofasco, and Dakota Mining will merge and become:

ZipAudiDoDa.



5. FedEx is expected to join its competitor, UPS, and become:

FedUP.



6. Fairchild Electronics and Honeywell Computers will call their newcompany :

Fairwell Honeychild.



7. Grey Poupon and Docker Pants are expected to become:

PouponPants.



8. Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become:

Knott NOW!




9. Victoria's Secret and Smith & Wesson will merge under the new name:

TittyTittyBangBang

Eight Good Years

Eight Good Years by Mary Duggan

Five Rules to Remember in Life

This has been attributed to John Wayne, but that might just be Internet fiction. Even so, the sentiments are pretty good.

1. Money cannot buy happiness but it’s more comfortable to cry in a Mercedes than on a bicycle.
2. Forgive your enemy, but remember the ba….d’s name.
3. Help someone when they are in trouble, and they will remember you when they’re in trouble again.
4. Many people are alive only because it’s illegal to shoot them.
5. Alcohol does not solve any problems, but then again, neither does milk.

Keltner Channels

Post #252 March 7, 2012

With a DOWNTRENDING stock or index, the stock/ index will move from the BOTTOM of the keltner to the MID POINT of the keltner which is the dotted line and is the SECOND number showing in the bracketed numbers on the left of the chart right next to “kelt” – the FIRST number showing there is the bottom of the keltner and the THIRD number showing is the TOP of the keltner. These numbers are also showing on the RIGHT side of the chart right next to the green lines of the keltner channel itself.

So, a DOWNTRENDING stock or index will move from the BOTTOM of the keltner to the MID keltner and then sell back down again to the bottom of the keltner and then go back up again to the mid of the keltner and then sell back down to the bottom of the keltner etc etc – a stock or index will continue this kind of price action UNTIL the stock or index starts going in to an UPTREND – so, in an uptrend, the stock will move to the TOP of the keltner and then on sell offs will only move down to the mid of the keltner and then go back up again to the top and then back down again to the mid keltner and then back up to the top – etc etc. – and it will do this until that uptrend turns in to a downtrend – and it usually tells us it’s now in a downtrend by it falling BELOW the mid point of the keltner and going ALL THE WAY DOWN to the BOTTOM of the keltner.

A stock may not get to the TOP OR to the BOTTOM of the keltner though for uptrends and downtrends as the stock could get stopped along the way by resistance at the top going up or at support on the stock/ index coming down in price. TRP.TO is a god example as the top of the keltner is at $43.03 BUT there was resistance at around $42.00 and that is where TRP.TO got stopped at yesterday before it started coming down. Look at TRP.TO on the chart to see what I’m referring to with the keltner and those price points:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRP.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48945226750

Now, I don’t just use the keltner all by itself to tell me if a stock is overbought and looking to come down OR is oversold and is now looking like it will go higher in price! The keltner is but ONE indicator I use (albeit, it’s the BEST ONE in my opinion and experience of it) – I also use Full stochastics (found at the BOTTOM of the chart above) and RSI (found at the TOP of the chart of TRP). Overbought on stochastics is the black line crossing above the 80 horizontal line on the chart – you can see this very clearly on the chart and can see the value of the stochastics line on the RIGHT side of the chart – and oversold on stochastics is BELOW the horizontal 20 line on the chart – so, the black line going below 20.

Here’s the SPX that shows we went to the BOTTOM of the keltner last week when we got to 1100 and the MID POINT of the keltner (the DOTTED GREEN LINE) was at 1216 – and we ALMOST made it there BUT the SPX had resistance at 1200 and so we got just above that level this week at 1205 and then we now are coming down from there as the resistance there was just too strong to take us any higher right now. So, the SPX looks like it may be heading back down to the bottom of the keltner which is currently at 1113 – BUT, stocks and indexes like to test prior lows before they head higher OR go much lower – so, even though the bottom on the keltner is showing at 1113, the SPX will most likely be going towards its recent low of 1100 to test there and see if it holds. If it breaks, its next support is at 1096, then 1075, and then there’s BIG SUPPORT at 1050. Here’s the chart of the SPX so you can see too:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64728745078

Life Without Bread

From chapter 7 - page 128

Techniques that show promise, or methods such as low carbohydrate nutrition that have been proven, are generally ignored – not disproved, just ignored. A well-known and respected researcher simply has to say that a method does not work, and bingo! Without any proof, an unsubstantiated statement then becomes the dogma of the day. But this situation is changing. To ignore scientific information, is, in our opinion, irresponsible. There is, however, a viable alternative; Eat what you can tolerate.

Ichimoku Cloud

...is most effective in trending market; not so much in choppy market.

Ichimoku Basics

The Ichimoku Cloud - youtube

chart school

Ichimoku trading tenkan-sen kijun-sen cross

Ichimoku: Strategies, Setups and What to Watch for

RRSP - early withdrawls

Quotes from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rrsp/how-early-withdrawals-can-reduce-the-rrsp-tax-hit/article2351732/

Jean Lesperance, the blogger at Canadian Financial DIY and HowToInvestOnline, is gradually “melting down” his RRSP in support of a semi-retired lifestyle. Still a few years younger than 65, he is also funnelling RRSP withdrawals into his tax-free savings account (TFSA) to have the flexibility to receive tax-free income that can augment or replace RRIF withdrawals later.

“That’s to keep me in the lowest possible tax bracket all along, and to minimize as much as possible the clawback of income from government programs such as OAS [Old Age Security],” Mr. Lesperance says. “If I can pay 20 per cent tax on $50,000 RRSP money instead of 30 per cent tax, that’s like a 10-per-cent return on my money. Taxes matter a lot.”

Low-income seniors with RRSPs may want to melt them down before 65 no matter what their tax rate is. It is unlikely to be as high as the clawback of the guaranteed income supplement (GIS): a dollar of RRSP income after age 65 snatches back 50 cents from the GIS, equivalent to a 50-per-cent tax rate.

Middle-income seniors can receive close to $20,000 in annual income tax-free thanks to the basic-personal, age, and pension-income tax credits on their tax returns (Lines 300, 301 and 314). If nondiscretionary retirement income (e.g. OAS, corporate pension) is less than this amount, the difference can effectively be withdrawn from RRSPs free of tax.

Retirees shouldn’t wait until 71 to open RRIFs and transfer in RRSP funds, advises Ron Watson, 68, of Thunder Bay, / who gives workshops on entrepreneurship and financial management. RRSP withdrawals are subject to transaction fees and tax withholding whereas RRIF withdrawals are not. Moreover, after 65, RRIF withdrawals are eligible for income splitting, and the pension income tax credit can be applied to the first $2,000 taken out every year.

An aggressive form of the meltdown relies on leverage to extract RRSP funds without incurring any or very much tax. It works this way: RRSP withdrawals are used to pay, in full or part, the interest on an investment loan in a non-registered account. Since the interest is tax deductible, it cancels out the taxes on RRSP withdrawals, in full or part.

A leading proponent is Garth Turner, the former member of parliament who blogs at Greaterfool.ca: “I plan to borrow a mess of money to invest in a nice, balanced portfolio, then use RRSP withdrawals to pay the interest on that investment loan. ... By the time 71 rolls around, the net effect is that I’ll have transferred wealth from one pre-tax pile to another after-tax one.”

Glycemic Index

From slide #24
http://www.lowcarbwellness.com/wheat---grain-danger
.

quoting Jim Sinclair

My Dear Friends,

Today was long and enlightening for me. I made multiple meetings in New York City with significant money managers.

During these meeting the price of gold rose above the $1764 level which I have repeatedly told you is as important as $524.90 was when gold broke out of its arithmetic up trend and entered its first power up trend. I wish to remind you $1764 is the point where gold moves out of its power up trend and enters into its geometric uptrend. I have also assured you the central banks and especially the US Fed via the BIS and Exchange Stabilization Fund seek not to depress gold, but only to prevent it from running so hard on the upside as to expose the true condition of Western world finance.

There has been significant interventions in the gold price at Angel $1764 with unexpected other central bank accumulation resulting in inexplicable strength in the $1710-$1720 area.

As the strong dollar policy is clearly a policy of softening a long term decline, the interventions in gold have been to modify a desire in the market itself to go ballistic on the upside.

If there was any startling realization today it was that among true geniuses and maturity in major money managers there is a grave lack of understanding concerning the forces at work in the financial can kick of the century now about to take place.

Only one person today knows that the war with Iran starts when Iran is frozen out of the Swift system. In terms of finance, that is a nuclear attack. It was just that threat alone that made Swiss banks destroy their tradition of privacy and send their loyal clients to a mass execution, assuming that they were cheating on taxes.

Not one person I spoke to today ever asked themselves who determines if credit event is a default and what that means to the mountain of credit default swaps that US banks have vended via their non US subsidiaries. By this method the count of these OTC derivatives by the US Controller of the Currency is way short of the true amount of debt insurance banks have sold.

Only one man understood what a commodity currency was and had studied where currency induced cost push inflation had produced severe price inflation during periods of awful economic conditions brought on by all types of debt failure.

I am speaking with leaders in finance who control immense sums of money. If these people do not understand the forces at work what makes you think politicians or their college professor appointees to central banks have a better understanding? The answer is simple – they do not!

Let me share with you the conclusion I took away from today’s luncheon.

1. What is going to happen is going to take place in March somewhere between the 14th and 20th in all probability.
2. What will determine the fate of markets is what action China does or does not take in providing funds to IMF bailout funds.
3. I believe China can and will extract significant trade and other benefits for their presence.
4. I believe China will want the same immunity that the IMF just took for themselves on sovereign debt in liquidation.
5. Greek gold will be held hostage to their debt.
6. That will accelerate the modest trend of repatriation of gold for the cellar of the New York Fed to nations like Germany that are certainly able to store their own wealth.
7. There will be an acceleration in the trend of utilization of other currencies than the dollar for contracting internationally regarding goods, service, oil and minerals.
8. I do not agree that we are at the doorstep now of major changes in the international monetary system. That comes in June of 2015.
9. I am certain that we are on the immediate threshold of the monster kick of the financial can down the road that is a dead end.
10. I believe China and the US Fed will assist in that great last can kick that backfires.
11. I am certain that I am in the right business and that business is the identification and accumulation of gold as gold is the ultimate survivor of what is about to happen.
12. I am certain the gold industry is mad as a Danbury hatter in selling their product the moment they produce it.
13. I am certain the gold and silver industry is in a transition back to the dividend producers they once were.
14. I am certain that the volatility in gold, silver and equities we have already seen is nothing compared to what is about to happen.
15. The last man standing among asset categories as the nehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifw monetary system is introduced sometime post June of 2015 will be gold and gold alone.

Therefore the soundest investment now is what I, and others (McEwen) are doing in building companies whose inventories of goods to be sold are mineable ounces of gold and other precious metals in the ground moving towards production.

The immense shorts in this industry group are whacked out noobies without a clue.

New mines need never pollute. Old mines can never be cleaned up. Open pit and surface enrichment is the type of gold that will be least effected by rising costs.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/
.

Excerpt from "Life Without Bread"

Observations recorded throughout modern history reflect the benefit of low-carbohydrate nutrition. Herodotus tells of the meeting between a Persian delegation and the king of Ethiopia in the fifth century B.C., and of the curiosity of the Ethiopian king concerning Cambyses, the Persian king:

Finally (the Ethiopian king) came to the wine and, having learnt the process of its manufacture, drank some and found it delicious; then, for a last question, he asked what the Persian king ate and what was the greatest age that Persians could attain. Getting in reply an account of the nature and cultivation of wheat, and hearing that the Persian king ate bread, and that people in Persia did not commonly live beyond eighty, he said he was not surprised that anyone who ate dung should die so soon, adding that the Persians would doubtlessly die younger still, if they did not keep themselves going with that drink - and here he pointed to the wine - the only thing in which he admitted the superiority of the Persians.

The Persians, in their turn, asked the Ethiopian king how long the Ethiopians lived and what they ate, and were told that most of them lived to be 120, and some even more, and that they ate boiled meat and drank milk.
.

music

HOW GREAT THOU ART - MARTINA MCBRIDE

My God and I (sesamonte)

Adjusted for inflation

http://www.aboutinflation.com/inflation/canada---inflation
.

George Younce

Side by Side

We got married last Friday
my girl was right there beside me
our friends were all gone
we were alone ... side by side.

We were so happily wed, when
she got ready for bed; then
her teeth and her hair
she place on a chair ... side by side.

One glass eye so tiny
one hearing aid so small;
then she took off one leg
and placed it on the chair by the wall;

I stood there broken hearted
most of my gal had departed
I slept on the chair
there was more of her there ... side by side.

.

Patty Geppert

No Tears in Heaven

Jesus And Me

Just Build My Mansion

Where The Roses Never Fade

Leaning On The Everlasting Arms

.

People of Walmart

Have you ever wondered what happened to the sixties hippies?
This guy was observed "chillin" at Walmart.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
We deal with all the problems of economics and politics.
Now here is a fellow who really does not give a damn.
The question is if he is happier?

.

CMF forecasts

Wanted to ask TA gurus....don't you think that we have inverse head and shoulders for oil and oil gonna rully to 130-135?
...
Not possible
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=114139&postcount=2299

Belguy: "The buyers will become criers!!!"
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=118148&postcount=781
.

Drumheller population

Census reveals modest growth

Consistency is key as Drumheller grows again following the 2011 Census.
The Town of Drumheller saw modest growth over the period since the last census in 2006.
The population went from 7,932 to 8,029, a modest growth of about 1.2 per cent. While it is not a great increase, Mayor Terry Yemen said it is positive simply because, while there has been a period of economic instability, the trend is in the right direction.
In comparing surrounding communities and like-sized towns, the trend is mixed. Hanna saw a decrease in population of about 6 per cent. Beiseker also dropped about 2.4 per cent, Stettler saw an increase of 5.6 per cent and Camrose increased by 10 per cent.
Yemen says he believes the numbers are accurate. Following the 2006 census, the Town of Drumheller paid to conduct a second census with the assertion that growth had been higher. They found the numbers were lower.
Bill Wulff, acting Director of Corporate services for the Town of Drumheller, said the numbers are important because many grant programs are based on per capita.
“Just about all of them are based on per capita,” said Wulff, adding the population at the Drumheller Institution is included in the count.
He says there are a number of reasons people may perceive growth being higher. While there are a number of new faces in town, he said there is attrition; for example when young people leave the valley to study they do not return.
While there has been an increase of new homes being built that could signify growth, Wulff adds those buying houses could be current residents who are moving from the family home, or starting a new family.
Alberta led the way in Canada with the highest percentage of growth (10.8), bested only by the Yukon Territory with 11.6 per cent growth. Overall Canada grew by 5.9 per cent with no province or territory declining.
More information from the 2011 census will be released throughout the year.

http://om.ly/BmQpV

.

pure bs but funny

Why You Should Eat Dessert for Breakfast

Scientists also said that it's not good to cut out sweets entirely when you want to firm up because it can create a psychological addiction to them in the long run and cause you to crave them 24/7.

Obviously, you wouldn't want to make it a habit to have a massive piece of cake every morning, but ending breakfast with a few Hershey's kisses or a cup of hot chocolate could have the same effect.

http://ca.shine.yahoo.com/why-you-should-eat-dessert-for-breakfast.html

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Warren Buffet's ..

.. Latest Insurance Con

http://etfdailynews.com

February 15th, 2012
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Letter from freed slave to former master draws attention

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/letter-freed-slave-former-master-draw-attention-151653952.html

A newly discovered letter from a freed former slave to his onetime master is creating a buzz. Letters of Note explains that in August of 1865, a Colonel P.H. Anderson of Big Spring, Tennessee wrote to his former slave Jourdan Anderson, requesting that Jourdan return to work on his farm.

In the time since escaping from slavery, Anderson had become emancipated, moved to Ohio where he found paid work and was now supporting his family. The letter turned up in the August 22 edition of the New York Daily Tribune.

Washington Post's Style Invitational

The Washington Post's Style Invitational asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition. Here are this year's winners:

Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

Foreploy (v): Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.

Giraffiti (n): Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.

Sarchasm (n): The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

Inoculatte (v): To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

Hipatitis (n): Terminal coolness.

Osteopornosis (n): A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)

Karmageddon (n): it's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer.

Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.

Glibido (v): All talk and no action.

Dopeler effect (n): The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

Arachnoleptic fit (n..): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a grub in the fruit you're eating.

And the pick of the literature:

Ignoranus (n): A person who's both stupid and an asshole.

Atlas Shrugged

Atlas Shrugged Movie Explained Part 2 - Rearden Metal Is Not For Sale

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 1

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 2

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 3

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 4

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 5

Stossel On Atlas Shrugged Part 6

gold/silver ratio

Long term (1979) g/s ratio at Trader Dan's blog.

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-term-view-of-goldsilver-ratio.html
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Australian Tourism

From Casey Daily Dispatch - January 20, 2012

A set of questions and answers that actually appeared on an Australian tourism website. It's nice to see a government agency that doesn't take itself too seriously.
Note that the nationality of the person asking the question is indicated in parentheses.

Q: Does it ever get windy in Australia? I have never seen it rain on TV, how do the plants grow? (UK) 
A: We import all plants fully grown and then just sit around watching them die. 

Q: Will I be able to see kangaroos in the street? (USA) 
A: Depends how much you've been drinking.

Q: I want to walk from Perth to Sydney - can I follow the railroad tracks? (Sweden)
A: Sure, it's only three thousand miles. Take lots of water. 

Q: Are there any ATMs (cash machines) in Australia? Can you send me a list of them in Brisbane, Cairns, Townsville and Hervey Bay? (UK) 
A: What did your last slave die of?

Q: Can you give me some information about hippo racing in Australia? (USA) 
A: A-fri-ca is the big, triangle-shaped continent south of Europe.
Aus-tra-lia is that big island in the middle of the Pacific, which does not...
Oh, forget it. Sure, the hippo racing is every Tuesday night in King's Cross. Come naked.

Q: Which direction is north in Australia? (USA) 
A: Face south, and then turn 180 degrees. Contact us when you get here, and we'll send the rest of the directions.

Q: Can I bring cutlery into Australia? (UK) 
A: Why? Just use your fingers like we do.

Q: Can you send me the Vienna Boys' Choir schedule? (USA)
A: Aus-tri-a is that quaint little country bordering Ger-man-y, which is...  
Oh, forget it. Sure, the Vienna Boys' Choir plays every Tuesday night in King's Cross, straight after the hippo races. Come naked.
 
Q: Can I wear high heels in Australia? (UK) 
A: You are a British politician, right?

Q: Are there supermarkets in Sydney, and is milk available all year round? (Germany) 
A: No, we are a peaceful civilization of vegan hunter/gatherers. Milk is illegal.

Q: Please send a list of all doctors in Australia who can dispense rattlesnake serum. (USA) 
A: Rattlesnakes live in A-meri-ca, which is where YOU come from. All Australian snakes are perfectly harmless, can be safely handled, and make good pets.

Q: I have a question about a famous animal in Australia, but I forget its name. It's a kind of bear and lives in trees. (USA) 
A: It's called a Drop Bear. They are so called because they drop out of gum trees and eat the brains of anyone walking underneath them. You can scare them off by spraying yourself with human urine before you go out walking.

Q: I have developed a new product that is the fountain of youth. Can you tell me where I can sell it in Australia? (USA) 
A: Anywhere significant numbers of Americans gather.
  
Q: Do you celebrate Christmas in Australia? (France) 
A: Only at Christmas.
 
Q: Will I be able to speak English most places I go? (USA) 
A: Yes, but you'll have to learn it first. 

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Ian Gordon ...

... in conversation with Jay Taylor January 17,2012 (hour 2)
http://www.voiceamerica.com/episode/58974/ians-1012-forecast-is-this-the-year-for-dow-1000-and-4000-gold/54913

2012 - markets will be higher going into March
March 2009 low will be taken out
DOW 2,500 by November 2012 - then short recovery
DOW 1,000 thereafter

Gold: starting from Dec 2011 low 1524
- wave 1 up 2885 in 2012
- down 13% to 2250
- wave 3 up 3995 in 2012
- down 13% to 3440
- final wave up 4500
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Forum Trolls

A classic CureZone troll is trying to make us believe that he is a genuine skeptic with no hidden agenda. He is divisive and argumentative with need-to-be-right attitude, "searching for the truth", flaming discussion, and sometimes insulting people or provoking people to insult him. Troll is usually an expert in reusing the same words of its opponents and in turning it against them.

While sometimes, he may sound like a stupid, uninformed, ignorant poster, do not be deceived! Most trolls are highly intelligent people trying to hide behind a mask of stupidity and/or ignorance! They usually have an agenda. Very few trolls come to CureZone out of pure skepticism.

http://curezone.com/forums/troll.asp
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Mon, 8 Mar 1999

The Economist predicts low oil prices for foreseeable future

DROWNING IN OIL

"WHAT", sneered Abdurrahman Salim Atiqi, Kuwait's one-time oil minister,
"is the point of producing more oil and selling it for an unguaranteed
paper currency?"

The price of oil has fallen by half in the past two years, to just over
$10 a barrel. It may fall further-and the effects will not be as good as
you might hope.

Yet here is a thought: $10 might actually be too optimistic. We may be
heading for $5.

http://www.casi.org.uk/discuss/1999/msg00181.html
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Natural Gas $2.55

Random snips from various sources - Jan 14, 15

Alberta gas for February delivery fell 0.25 cent to C$2.465 a gigajoule ($2.28 per million British thermal units) at 12:01 p.m. New York time on NGX, a Canadian Internet market.

~~~~~//~~~~~

The EIA expects LNG imports in 2012 to drop about 26% to 0.69 billion cubic feet per day, unchanged from its December outlook, as higher prices in Europe and Asia steer cargoes away from US shores. The agency expects Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2012 to average USD 3.53 per million British thermal units, down nearly 12% from 2011's estimated average of USD 4.00.

~~~~~//~~~~~

In 2011, 17 billion cubic meters of gas was to be supplied to China, which is more than the declared amounts of Russia (10.5 billion cubic meters) and of Iran.

At the end of the November 2001 official visit the Turkmen president paid to China an agreement was signed to increase the annual mount of gas from the earlier contracted 40 billion cubic meters to 65 billion cubic meters.

~~~~~//~~~~~

LA PAZ – President Evo Morales expressed concern Saturday over the possibility that Argentina and Brazil, the only export markets for Bolivian natural gas, will stop importing the fuel.

“I’m worried what would happen to Bolivia if it didn’t have a market for its gas ... We now depend on Argentina and Brazil because we sell our gas there,” the leftist president said in a speech in the southern Bolivian province of Chuquisaca.

“If they no longer want our gas, who do we sell our gas to?”

Seasonality - oil & gas equip

timing the market.ca
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projecting the next breakout for gold

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/gold-will-make-new-high-date
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opposition to Keystone XL

> opposition to the pipeline through Nebraska is led by a group called BOLD Nebraska
> BOLD is funded by Dick Holland
> Dick Holland is a close friend and business partner of Warren Buffett
> Warren Buffett owns Burlington Northern (BNSF)
> if Holland and BOLD are successful in blocking Keystone XL, Berkshire Hathaway will be the beneficiary
> the oil will still be moved from the oil sands to the USA, but it will go by rail, not via pipeline

Read the article here.

http://www.readmorejoe.com/id92.html

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Seasonality - TSX

10 years ending Jan 5, 2012

www.equityclock.com
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Gold - up for eleven years

2000 — $273.60
2001 — $279.00
2002 — $348.20
2003 — $416.10
2004 — $438.40
2005 — $518.90
2006 — $638.00
2007 — $838.00
2008 — $889.00
2009 — $1096.50
2010 — $1421.40
2011 — $1566.80

“I note the frustration and anger of the anti-gold crowd,” Russell continues. “To miss twelve years of rising prices is enough to make any investor furious with himself. I would guess that 99 percent of Americans have never participated in the gold bull market. Thus, sour grapes is the sentiment of the gold-haters...”

Britannia Radio Blogspot

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quoting Bill Bonner

Today, a new Buick will set you back about $26,000. Divide by $1,550. What do you get? About 16. This tells us that an ounce of gold is worth more today than it was then.

How about oil? In 1940 you could get a gallon of gasoline for about 10 cents. Last week, it was $3.50 cents. An ounce of gold would have bought you 350 gallons in 1940 and 414 gallons today.

Conclusion: gold is not too cheap at $1,500. At $1,900 it was too expensive.

Read more: Is Gold Washed Up? http://dailyreckoning.com/is-gold-washed-up/#ixzz1ivAFsYqK

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Creation

Creation Calls by Brian Doerksen

http://www.andiesisle.com/creation/magnificent.html

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quoting Bill Bonner

If you buy a share in a company because you think the price will go up, you are betting that you can see into the future. A bad bet, in our opinion. The unknown unknowns are likely to work against you. Better to buy a share that you want to own — whether the price goes up or not.

Likewise, the time to buy an oil stock is not when you expect war with Iran. Better to buy an oil stock when no one expects war. Then, the unexpected can only help you.

And how about gold? Buy it when people predict it will go lower, not when they expect it to rise. Of course, you don’t know where it will go. But when people think it is going down, odds are…it is cheap.

Yeah, we have the things that really matter. Too bad about the money.

Read more: Hopes, Fears and Preparations for 2012 http://dailyreckoning.com/hopes-fears-and-preparations-for-2012/#ixzz1imx2yT8P
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