Steve Goodman

Fourteen Days

You Never Even Call Me By My Name

I am My Own Grandpa

Banana Republic

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Volatility and Risk

Volatility Does Not Equal Risk
Written by Jeff Nielson Wednesday, 28 September 2011

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photographer jump

Story here ...

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Soweto Gospel Choir

Hosanna - Soweto Gospel Choir

I bid you Goodnight - Soweto Gospel Choir

Ahuna Ye Tswanang Le Jesu Kammatla

*Forever young by Soweto Gospel Choir *

Sunday music

Evangelisations Männerchor Deutschland ''Jesus Christus, er kommt wieder''

Wenn Jesus kommt - Karlsruher Jugendquartett


O ich weiss ein Land

Ich weiß einen Strom

How Deep The Fathers Love - RJC Chorale & CMU

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Buy and Hope

Buy-And-Hold Is Dead And Gone

Forbes article from 2010
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Alf Field

Keynote Speech At Sydney Gold Symposium 14-15 November 2011 By Alf Field
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commercial break

Cinema stunt by Carlsberg
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Grandich

Seasonalities - ENB

ENBRIDGE INC COM NPV (ENB.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of January 20 and a sell date of December 31, investors have benefited from a total return of 612.5% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 320.14%.

EquityClock.com

Seasonalities - TRP

TRANSCANADA CORP COM NPV (TRP.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of January 20 and a sell date of December 31, investors have benefited from a total return of 465.52% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of April 17 and a sell date of November 4, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 259.54% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 273.86%.

EquityClock.com

Seasonalities - BTE

BAYTEX ENERGY TR (BTE-UN.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of December 6 and a sell date of August 24, investors have benefited from a total return of 4141.63% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of December 6 and a sell date of June 19, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 3096.63% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 595.97%.

EquityClock.com

NOTE: Baytex has converted to a corporation from an income trust. The symbol is BTE.

Seasonalities - CU

Canadian Utilities Limited (CU.TO) Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of April 14 and a sell date of December 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 218.45% over the last 9 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 6 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of February 25 and a sell date of November 16, producing a total return over the same 9-year range of 150.14% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 9 years was 113.46%.

EquityClock.com

Falling Leaves

Grandpa Jones

Falling leaves that lie scattered on the ground,
The birds and flowers that were here cannot be found.
All the friends that he once knew are not around.
They're all scattered like the leaves upon the ground.

Some folks drift along through life and never thrill,
To the feeling that a good deed brings until,
It's too late and they are ready to lie down,
There beneath the leaves that's scattered on the ground.

Lord, let my eyes see every need of every man,
Make me stop and always lend a helping hand,
Then when I'm laid beneath that little grassy mound,
There'll be more friends around than leaves upon the ground.

To your grave there's no use taking any gold,
You cannot use it when it's time for hands to fold,
When you leave this earth for a better home someday,
The only thing you'll take is what you gave away.

Grandpa Jones - Falling Leaves



When I Get To The End Of The Way - Grandpa Jones
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Steve Jobs

A Sister’s Eulogy for Steve Jobs

Bonnie Stewart - Silver Threads Among The Gold

Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch, one of history’s all-time top mutual-fund managers, summed it up best when he said that, “If you spend 12 minutes a year worrying about economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." ~Will Rogers (from chapter one of One Up On Wall Street)

Ross Hansen

Excellent interview with Ross Hansen (20 minutes)

James J Puplava with Ross Hansen

Ross Hansen has over 30 years experience as a minting expert and bullion dealer. Ross began his career in precious metals in 1981 with the founding of Auburn Precious Metals. Soon after, he began striking silver bullion under the Northwest Territorial Mint brand.

Mark Lowry

Ridin Down The Canyon
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Eric Sprott

When Money Dies
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Should You Go First

George Younce quotes a very touching poem about loved ones who have gone before us.

Should You Go First



Farewell to Vestal and Gaither Stars

I've Never Been This Homesick Before

Highway to Heaven - Jessy Dixon

JESSY DIXON with GAITHER HOMECOMING FRIENDS
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quoting Adrienne Toghraie

In the last few months I have been getting calls from traders who are frustrated, angry, sad and sometimes lost. They talk about bosses, wives, children, and the government that is the source of their upset. While people in your life can create an atmosphere of turmoil, you are ultimately in charge of your own power. When you lose your power, trading losses will follow.

Not good for me

Ken called to tell me that a month ago he had broken up with his girlfriend of 2 years. He told me many reasons why this was not a good relationship and that he knew it had to end. That conversation followed with him telling me that she was getting married. He was obviously upset, but insisted that he did not love her and that if he married her, it would have been the worst decision of his life. I told him that he had let this woman take away all of his power and she did not even know it. I asked him how long he was going to let this go on.

Ken had the sense to stop trading while he was going through his upset. While his focal point was on his ex-girlfriend, she was the catalyst of other issues that were bothering him in his life. His trading was not giving him the results that he wanted. He was unhappy about what was happening in the world. And most of all he was lonely.

Power is energy

What we focus on feeds us with positive or negative energy and that generates power within. When this energy is positive, it allows us to:

· Think rationally

· Give our best performance in trading and in other areas of our life

· See opportunity

· Give good advice to others and ourselves

· Have more energy time

· Create better relationships

· Feel more optimistic

· Have a sense of purpose

· Look forward to the day’s activities

The broken toilet

Kelly was extremely angry with the fact that her landlord did not send anyone to fix her broken toilet after she had left several messages. She then decided to take matters into her own hands and hire a plumber taking the cost out of her rent. Her landlord called and yelled at her for over 10 minutes. As a result, she could not trade for the next few days. This is when she called me.

Kelly told me the story repeatedly until I repeated it back to her and asked if I had missed any of the points. She said that I had not but wanted me to agree with her that she did the right thing. I asked her how long she was going to give up her power by thinking about what had happened over and over in her mind? I asked her who else had yelled at her in her life and told her that she was bad when she had made a decision that most people would think was right. After much discussion, she said her father and her ex-husband.

Who is taking away your power?

If you are presently dealing with an upset, ask yourself these questions:

· What or who is bothering you?

· Is there anything else going on in your life now that is also bothering you?

· Are these feelings you are having similar to other feelings that you have had in your life?

· Does your issue deserve the attention that you are giving it?

What to do?

Here are a few steps that you can take to overcome giving up your power:

· Write down your problem until there is nothing more to say about it.

· Write down what actions you can take immediately and in the future to overcome this and/or to not let this happen again

· Make a plan that is filled with positive activity

· If you cannot handle this on your own, get help

Conclusion

Only we can take away our own power. It is important to recognize when we are allowing our power to be sapped away and take care of it before it escalates and takes over our lives. Remember, not to trade when you do not have power over yourself.

tradingontarget.com

Clive Maund

Those interested in going long gold investments in the near future should "keep their powder dry" but stand ready to wade in big time if gold drops into the bright green "aggressive accumulation zone" shown on our chart. ~Clive Maund

Robert Shaw Chorale

Shenandoah

O Tannenbaum

In the Bleak Midwinter

shale gas - article

Shale Gas – It Ain’t Everything They Said It Would Be

By the Casey Research Energy Team

from Casey's Daily Dispatch, September 29, 2011

Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Warns America (1929)

Steal from the Devil: The Story of Billy Sunday

Billy Sunday Preaching About Alcohol

quoting Chris Mayer

Opportunity Now

It’s hard to believe autumn’s days are here already. As the poet Charles Bukowski wrote, “The days run away like wild horses over the hills.” The leaves are already turning. The air is getting cooler. The sunsets come earlier. The fall seasonal brews have been tapped.

I love the changing of the seasons, and it always puts me in a thoughtful mood. I guess because it makes me more conscious of the passage of time, something you can lose in the day-to-day tending to a life.

Such thinking also tends to force some perspective. I think the world is full of opportunity. I think it is a great time to be an investor. Of course, with the constant onslaught of depressing news out there, it’s not always easy to remain alert to these opportunities.

Recently I received an email from a reader of my Capital & Crisis newsletter. I thought the email echoed pretty well some of the concerns investors have right now, so I’d like to take the opportunity to address a few of those points today.


“If the bank stocks run into trouble and there is less liquidity in the market, will that not impact on business in general? Will it not affect businesses that are otherwise well run and in good shape? Will it not bring about a contraction overall?”
The short answers are yes, yes and yes. But those things are hard to predict. In fact, I would say they are impossible to predict reliably and make money. If what I’m saying weren’t true, then a lot more economists would be richer investors. Yet the greatest investors — Graham, Buffett, Klarman, Greenblatt, Whitman, Lynch and many others — are not economists. Not only that, but they pretty much ignored economic forecasting altogether.

In my experience, there is little point in going through life thinking every year is going to be 1929. As an investor, you have to invest through good times and bad. I gave you my personal example, in which I’ve managed my own money through two periods when the market was cut in half from peak to trough (2000-2002 and 2007-2009) yet each time my account rose in value far more than it fell going in. The same was true in Capital & Crisis in the latter crash. (It wasn’t around for the first one.) I think this 2011 episode will bring the same result.


“Now, I know that you believe in finding businesses for which all the fundamentals are good, but surely these too will be negatively impacted if the above scenario is correct. You quoted Buffett as to the fear factor — ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’ — but is it not still early days? Do you not think that the fear factor will rise still more if the above scenario comes to pass?”
We don’t know if these are the early days. Things could get worse or they could get better. I come at these things with wide historical perspective. I can show you how every decade there are people who think it is end of days. Yet each time, humanity figures out a way to move forward and markets recover. Then the market cycle repeats, endlessly, through the years.

What’s interesting in our times is that we’ve had several crises packed closely together. And things seem to unfold at hyper speed. But otherwise, I am of the opinion that what we are suffering from is just another turn of the market wheel in a long history of such turns.

Humanity has done an awful lot of self-defeating things. Yet somehow, here we are. Despite all that the 20th century threw at it, the stock market still produced many sparkling gems, a long list of iconic franchises — Wal-Mart, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Home Depot, Apple and many more. I think the 21st century will be no different. We’ll have many calamities, but we’ll also create many opportunities.

I believe in people and incentives and the idea that the true economics of a business will prove out over time. I believe in the classic principles of investing for the long haul that have served so many so well. I believe in patience and discipline.


“So, I guess that really I would like to know if you think that we are on the cusp of a crisis or just a temporary slowdown.”
I’ll give you the only possible honest answer: I don’t know. But here is what few others will tell you: You don’t have to know the answer to that question to succeed as an investor. George Soros, the billionaire speculator, once said, “My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events.” And Warren Buffett said, “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, but nothing about the future.”

It’s something of a myth that great investors are great forecasters. They aren’t — and they realize they aren’t. They play the odds, buying cheap stocks in good businesses, backing talented people and sticking with their winning investment philosophies even when (and especially when) times got tough.

I wouldn’t invest unless you are in it for the long haul, unless you can hold onto a name for a few years. Don’t bother buying stocks if you are not committed as an owner. Think of stocks like real estate. You don’t go around willy-nilly buying real estate. Why? Because you know it is not easy to sell. It’s a hassle. So you are careful about what you buy.

This is why, getting back to the reader’s initial concern, the much- ballyhooed benefit of “liquidity” — the ability to buy and sell with ease without impacting the price of the asset — is the most overblown idea on the planet as far as finance goes. In 1960, the stock market turned over about 14% of its names. Meaning, people held stocks for, on average, seven years. Nobody complained about liquidity. Today, the whole market turns over in less than eight months. There are few owners anymore.

In the end, there will always be people telling you what can’t be done. I’ve heard this chorus since I started writing Capital & Crisis for the public in 2004. But I feel oddly optimistic. I feel like now is one of those times — like the pit of 2008 and early 2009 — at which we’ll look back and be glad we stayed in the game.

Of course, only time will tell. Until then, don’t forget to enjoy the present — the tasty fall brews, the company of friends and family and “the teeming autumn, big with rich increase” — as the old Bard had it.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

gold

Here are some words from Master Kenny:

“If December does NOT correct with lower closes over the next one or two days, but instead closes above $1695 over the next several days, then our figures would consider this corrective action as finished – albeit the normal back and forth widening action to come, notwithstanding. The other option (still in play), is a continuation of a V bottom and a spike rally moving very quickly up to the second resistance level at $1800/$1850, with very little widening along the way.”

jsmineset.com

#2 - another good post from zyphen

Surprised I'm back?

Submitted by Zyphen on September 30, 2011 - 3:11pm.

Me too.

I saw that my original post got hat tipped way more than expected from this crowd. I had thought the self styled troll hunters and conspiracy nuts were representative of the forum. I actually got mail asking me for more opinions. Trying to escape the church of PMs?

No one seems to have noticed that I advocated a long term core physical position in gold. They only heard that I was short term neutral with a bearish tilt and started frothing at the mouth. I wonder how you guys would react to real bears. Turd basically gives you guys similar advice in his last two postings but with a more optimistic tone.

Some people found my "the market is always right" statement condescending and objectionable. As I skimmed the comments, I only noticed 1 person who grasped what I was saying: that the market reflects the manipulations and maneuverings of all players (which includes you). If you're playing the game, then go figure out how the game is played and stop whining when you lose. I see a lot of mention of one Jesse Livermore on here but I'm thinking no one bothered to read any of his books. Guess who coined the phrase? Surprise, surprise. Go to wikipedia and click on the free pdf link at the bottom of his page. The man gave some good advice but was terrible at following his own rules (and went broke).

Also, I had a lot of people talking at me all at once so sorry if I didn't respond. But when I have people telling me straight up that they think the whole world is in on "it", there's really not much left for me to argue. If you don't think different banks or even different countries have differing interests, there's nothing I can say to that. That's the great part about conspiracies. It's like religion: needs little to no evidence, is hard to disprove (because it's not based in reality) and is easy to take on faith.

Anyways, if I wasn't clear about my positions, here they are (for people that care):

I'm short term neutral/bearish on gold. I'm long term bullish. I don't like the deflationary news coming out of Europe and China. It's a global economy. The Fed can't inflate to the moon by itself. And currently, it has given no signs for QE3. This is bad for metals and commodities. However, I consider gold to be more of an alternative currency than anything else. I still expect the G20 to huddle and realize they like inflation better after all. Else, it's USD for me.

For silver, I'm short term bearish and long term neutral. I don't like the fact that over half the demand equation is industrial. I don't expect to see 40s for a long while. I think it's very possible we hit low 20s if 29 falls decisively. Else, I expect range trading from high 20s to mid 30s for a while. People can forget about a low gold/silver ratio. You won't have the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market this time around with their highly leveraged billion dollar accounts. They couldn't do it in this kind of environment anyway with the rise of the East. Manipulation happens both ways. 100:1 leverage can just as easily push the price up (and did). If you think that's an absurd ratio, open up a FOREX account. It's the norm for all currencies. You guys should be happy, in a sense, that margin requirements have been raised. It gets us closer to the "real" price. Silver is still up 40%. Have some perspective.

P.S.: Why don't you guys read more from gold bugs that have actual credentials, a face, and - oh, I dunno - a real name? They're not optimistic enough for ya? I mean, blogs like Turd's are good places for technical discussions (which this thing has long since drifted away from) or sharing of news but there's too much pumping from random people with $500 newsletters and self-affirming radio shows (that aren't really on the radio) to draw in large numbers of subscribers for their advertisers. I'm not sold on Turd myself. He might just be repeating technical levels he got somewhere else. I'm skeptical of anybody that uses a SNL skit as their front. At least he's not asking for money yet (far as I know). Then you end up with stuff like Andrew Maguire, who doesn't exist btw. I know, it's like finding out about the tooth fairy but really, try finding actual information about this person:

He's either the creation of Max Keiser "Soze" or Bill Murphy. But because he's hiding out and his life is in danger or whatever, he'll never come out in public to drop his bombshell. It's funny how conspiracy theorists are so paranoid and gullible at the same time. You just gotta feed them the right bag of oats.

quoting Morris Hubbart

The dollar rally already now appears to be starting a topping out process. This process that is topping the dollar is also creating substantial bottoming action in gold and commodities. I expect this process to take another two weeks. I want to own more gold while the “sale” is on.

(GDXJ) Everything on the above chart is in place for a mind blowing rally, and believe me, I’m fully aware of the shell-shocked state most of you juniors investors are in right now, and have been in for years.

(DJIA) I see the dollar topping out in the next two or three weeks. That also means I see the stock market bottoming inside of 2-3 weeks. The window for booking profits on short sales is closing fast, but is still open, and the possibility of a heavy drop in the market is likely in this very short time span.

I know this may come as a bit of a shock, but I believe the next leg of weakness in the stock market could be purchased quite aggressively. Personally, I am directing my main buys towards gold, silver, gold stocks, crude oil, and agricultural commodities!

Sep 30, 2011
Morris Hubbartt

zyphen

Found this entry penned by "zyphen" on a blog which otherwise isn't worth linking to.

Submitted by Zyphen on September 28, 2011 - 2:30pm.

I've followed this blog off and on for a long time (since a year before it moved). While I often do not agree with the reasoning behind why moves occur, I do like to compare notes on support/resistance levels with this "Turd" fellow and other traders/bloggers in the PM game.

I just want to make a few observations here to help out some would-be traders and overleveraged perma-bulls:

1. The market is always right. Why? Because you're in it. It doesn't care about your rationalizations or reasoning. The price is what it is because the market says so. End of discussion.

2. Everyone on here is small-time. All of you put together won't make a fraction of a cent of difference in the price of gold. You can buy all the physical you want from all the small time dealers you can find. It doesn't matter. What moves the price are banks and sovereign funds. If there's a "conspiracy" to keep the price down, then there had to have been a big "conspiracy" to move the price up because news flash: you didn't matter at all in that move. As a plankton in the sea, you just want to be lucky enough to ride that wave when the tide comes in. At least people who kept talking up China and asian funds are thinking right in terms of scale. Do the rest of you honestly think that gold has gone parabolic off your meager interests? A lot of that so-called "Evil Empire" is made up of buyers. People who question the JPM naked short rumours are asking the right questions. How can smart money be so dumb? The answer: they're not.

3. Gold is moving with the market, not opposite it. All those fantasies about gold holding up when everything else tanks? Where's your evidence? We're moving in tandem with the general market (and overall worse off). The market is telling you plain as day that when the shit hits the fan (in terms of Greece or whatever else comes down the pipeline) that it'll just be a repeat of 2008. Gold and Silver will tank along with everything else. Cash is still going to be king until the market says otherwise.

4. Physical market? That'll never BE the market unless the global economy actually collapses. If you're 100% in physical, it's because you are betting that armageddon occurs. Even noted gold bugs like Marc Faber only recommend 25% allocation. Why? Because it's an insurance policy, not an investment. Frankly, if you think it's the end of the world and there will be anarchy, why stop at gold? Bypass that and go directly for the goods you'd trade that gold for: food, weapons, water, gas, etc.

5. Opportunity Cost. Relative Value. Paper has value because people believe it has value. Gold has value because people believe it has value. Of course it matters when and at what price you exchange one for the other because you could have gotten a LOT MORE of that other if you did the exchange at the right time. That's the entire point of the market or any market. Right now, people trust paper more. You go to a store, they want paper (or plastic). If you're willing to wait years and don't want to do anything with your money in terms of other investments or purchases, carry on. Otherwise, you'd better pay attention to what the market is telling you. And the market is saying it doesn't like PMs right now.

hersoveela

Show me the way to go home

Sal Bonavita plays Recuerdos de la Alhambra

Bellamy Brothers

IF I said YOU had a Beautiful Body

I Need More Of You

Casey Research

Humphreys does a great job of pushing Doug to defend his brand of no-holds-barred capitalism and the impact it would have on real people with real problems in today’s tough economy. Doug’s answers might surprise you; they will certainly educate you.

On viewing the video, Doug commented that he thought it was the best interview he’s done in a couple of decades, and we agree.

Short long term gov't bonds for the next ten years.

el computador

A Spanish Teacher was explaining to her class that in Spanish, unlike English, nouns are designated as either masculine or feminine.

'House' for instance, is feminine: 'la casa'
'Pencil' however, is masculine: 'el lapiz'

A student asked, 'What gender is 'computer'?'

Instead of giving the answer, the teacher split the class into two groups, male and female, and asked them to decide for themselves whether computer should be a masculine or a feminine noun. Each group was asked to give four reasons for its recommendation.

The men's group decided that 'computer' should definitely be of the feminine gender ('la computadora') because:

1. No one but their creator understands their internal logic;

2.The native language they use to communicate with other computers is incomprehensible to everyone else;

3. Even the smallest mistakes are stored in long term memory for possible later retrieval; and

4. As soon as you make a commitment to one, you find yourself spending half your paycheck on accessories for it.

(THIS GETS BETTER!)

The women's group, however, concluded that computers should be masculine ('el computador') because:

1. In order to do anything with them, you have to turn them on;

2. They have a lot of data but still can't think for themselves;

3. They are supposed to help you solve problems, but half the time they ARE the problem; and

4. As soon as you commit to one, you realize that if you had waited a little longer, you could have gotten a better model.

The women won.

Send this to all the smart women you know,
and all the men that have a sense of humour.

~~~//~~~

quoting Bill Bonner

Why Economic Growth is Not a Sure Thing

What if everything you thought you knew about investing wasn’t so? Or, to put it another way...what if everything you learned about investing was learned in an unusual period in investment history? A period that won’t be repeated in our lifetimes?

You’re used to stocks going up, right? But they don’t always go up. They only go up — in general — when the economy grows.

But economies always grow, right?

Well, maybe not. How much did the economy grow in 2011 BC? Nobody knows, right? But we’ll take a guess. It didn’t grow at all.

And guess how the real economy in the US is growing this year? Probably about as much as it did 4,000 years ago.

No, we’re not kidding. The numbers are all over the place. But they’re all near zero. Even the feds say the economy is “barely” growing...or that the ‘recovery is very fragile.’

Guess how many jobs the economy added in 2011BC? We don’t know that either, but we’ll take another guess: zero.

Okay... You see where we’re going with this. This economy sucks, right?

But here’s the thing. You think the suckiness of this economy is a temporary thing. You think the economy USUALLY does okay. You think that there is something inherent in technology...that it is always finding new and better ways to do things...and that as a result we all get richer all the time, right?

Well, what if you’re wrong?

What’s the measure of wealth? Here’s one way to look at it. It’s how much output you can get from a unit of time. You take your bare hands...you try to dig a ditch. Your output is very limited. So, in a remarkable breakthrough, someone invents a spade! The first ones are made of wood. But they get better and better. Now, with a steel spade in his hands a man can dig much more hole in the same amount of time. He is richer. He can produce more. He can improve his standard of living just by using the tools he has available to him.

But then what? Then...maybe 5,000 years after the invention of the first hoe, a man invents a machine to do the digging...a backhoe. Now he’s really smoking. With a backhoe he can dig 10...20...times faster than a man with a regular hoe.

The first mechanical diggers are clumsy. Steam-powered. But gradually they get better. Now, they’re so smooth and responsive a good backhoe operator can use them to light a man’s cigarette for him. No kidding, it’s included in backhoe rodeo contests.

Mechanical diggers have been around for 100 years. They’ve gotten bigger and better. Presumably, each new generation of machines pays off. But not like they used to. The first backhoes produced huge new gains in productivity. The last produced only marginal gains.

Meanwhile, the energy needed to run the machines becomes more expensive. At 15 cents a gallon, the investment in fuel and machinery was almost sure to be worth it. Now, at $4 a gallon, a man has to think twice. If he has a small hole to dig, he might be better off digging it with a spade!

The energy revolution may have peaked. Growth may be a thing of the past.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

quoting Byron King

Looking at Uranium...Again

Uranium is still a “Buy”...maybe now more than ever.

The disaster in Japan slammed the uranium sector...and it still has not recovered. But this washout looks like a buying opportunity, as long as you’re not in a hurry to make a big gain.

I won’t go into the Japan-specific details, but for our purposes, it’s a safe bet that the Japan disaster means that we may not see a large-scale “nuclear renaissance” during the next generation.

Why not? Well, just consider the ability of people to mobilize opposition to large-scale energy development — especially something with the media-driven fear factor of nuclear power. Looking ahead, it’ll be hard for any new nuclear program, anywhere, to make headway. Yes, we’ll see developments here and there — more in China, say, than in the US. But we probably won’t see a global breakout into the nuclear power space.

Still, the fact is that the world has an installed base of over 400 nuclear power reactors, and these systems generate almost 20% of the world’s electricity. The problem is there’s not enough new uranium coming out of the mines and mills of the world to keep these plants running. One key source of nuclear fuel for the past decade has been decommissioned atomic warheads from the Cold War era. But that source is soon about to dry up — in 2013, to be precise.

The investment point is there’s a looming uranium shortage, within the next two years. Two years? That may as well be tomorrow in terms of finding new sources of industrial supply. Two years really means “now,” as in today. This means that the existing players have to step up the pace. It also means that there’s room for new players and growth within the primary uranium and yellowcake spaces.

In my investment letter, Oustanding Investments, I recommended Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) early in 2006. The stock is down 40% since then! You see, even the nation’s #1-rated investment letter misfires from time to time. Usually, I would suggest cutting losses long before a stock had fallen this much. But I think Cameco is an exception. It is a blue chip company that has faced some very bad luck.

Canada-based Cameco is one of the world’s largest uranium producers. Its shares were trading at over $42 each early in 2011, but crashed to below $30 after the Japan disaster in March. Then, over the past summer, Cameco shares have continued drifting lower. Today, they trade for $21.75.

Last week, Cameco launched a $520 million hostile takeover bid for a much smaller uranium firm named Hathor Exploration. Cameco wants to get hold of Hathor’s high-grade “Roughrider” deposit in Saskatchewan’s prolific Athabasca Basin. Whatever the technical merits of the transaction, this news just dropped Cameco shares to near $20.

At the current share price, Cameco has a price-earnings ratio of 18, with a dividend yield of 1.9%. Yet if uranium pricing firms up over the next year — leading up to the post-2013 looming shortage — Cameco’s earnings could and should increase strongly. So here’s a large company whose shares, on the fundamentals, are poised for a recovery.

Yes, there’s a downside with Cameco from here. But in my view, there’s a strong upside to Cameco as well. Indeed, I think the chances of Cameco going to $30 are better than the chances the share price will drift too far below $20. Cameco is a buy.

Regards,

Byron King
for The Daily Reckoning

Anita Carter

Loving Him Was Easy ~~//~~ All Smiles Tonight ~~//~~ Sunny Side of Spain ~~//~~ When My Blue Moon Turns to Gold (with Hank Snow)

Sacred Music

A Christian hymn composed by Horatius Bonar in 1846. Sung in the video by the Antrim Mennonite Choir, from their album 'Amazing Grace.' I Heard the Voice of Jesus Say ~~//~~ A Christian hymn about Heaven, composed by Fanny Crosby in 1885. Meet Me There ~~//~~ Softly and Tenderly ~~//~~ Day by Day

Wilf Carter

A Cashbox For A Heart ~~//~~ What Price Must I Pay? ~~//~~ The Old Rugged Cross ~~//~~ Grandma's Courtin Again

Hobos Song of the Mounties 1934 ~~//~~ No letter today 1944 ~~//~~ I'm Thinking Tonight of My Blue Eyes

Wilf Carter (December 18, 1904 - December 5, 1996), also known as Montana Slim, was a Canadian country music singer, songwriter, guitarist, and yodeller. Widely acknowledged as the father of Canadian country music, Carter was Canada's first country music star, inspiring a generation of young Canadian performers. ~ Wikipedia

The Story Of Country Music

01 - The Carter Family

02 - Jimmie Rodgers

03 - Roy Acuff, and the Grand Ole Opry

04 Bill Monroe Louvin Brothers

05 Emmylou Harris


07 Hank Williams

08 Hank Williams & The Kings Of Honky Tonk

09 From Hank To Lefty


10 From Lefty To Elvis

11 Chet Atkins And The Nashville Sound

12 Jim Reeves

13 Willie, Waylon & The Boys

14 From Buck Owens to Grahm Parsons

15 The new traditionalists

.

ginmillsinger

I Don't Remember Loving You

Where Could I Go, (but to the Lord)

Just A Little Talk With Jesus
.

Karen Marie Garrett

Simple Things
.

more of Bill Bonner ... quoting

But how much would people pay for a gallon of gasoline? Well, let’s see...let’s assume that gold has done a fair job as real money, of holding its purchasing power steady. Back in the early ’70s you could have bought 160 gallons of gas with a single ounce of gold. And today? At $1,800 an ounce, and gasoline at $4, you can buy 450 gallons. It’s as if the price of gasoline had fallen to about 10 cents a gallon!

Hmmm....go figure.

Either gasoline is too cheap. Or gold is too expensive. If we were a trader we’d short the latter and go long on the former.

And since we’re always just guessing, we’ll take a guess as to what this means...

Gasoline is weak because the economy is fundamentally weak. Gold is high because Richard Nixon destroyed the integrity of the dollar, the US economy, and the world’s monetary system. Each of these trends will have to play itself out. In the meantime, gasoline...and/or gold...may need a little adjustment.

DailyReckoning.com
.

quoting Bill Bonner

Conversation with a Dublin cab driver:

“You Americans are lucky, sure you are. You can just walk away from a house. If I could do that, I’d be out tomorrow. But here, if you owe money on a mortgage the bank can come after you. You can never get away.

“I got married about 4 years ago. My wife and I both worked. We had good jobs. We were earning good money. And we believed all that BS about how property would just go up and up forever.

“So we bought an apartment for 360,000 euros. It was only supposed to be temporary, because we wanted to have a family and we figured we’d get a house after we started having children.

“Well, we’ve got 2 kids already and another on the way. And we’re still in the apartment. And we can’t move. Because the place is now only worth about 160,000 euros — would you believe it? It’s come down that much. And I can’t make the mortgage payments.

“My wife lost her job when the trouble began. And now, with all those children she can’t go back to work anyway. And driving a cab isn’t what it used to be. Every time someone loses his job in Dublin, he starts driving a cab. There are empty cabs all over the place. So, I don’t make nearly as much money as I used to. And with my wife not working, I can’t pay the mortgage.

“So I went to the bank. You know they are all broke. All the banks in Ireland. You’d think they’d like to see an honest homeowner trying to do the right thing.

“I told them I couldn’t keep up with the payments. I asked them if we could work something out, since the apartment is only worth less than half the mortgage amount. But they wouldn’t even talk to me. I guess they have someone breathing down their neck too.

“So I just send them half the money I’m supposed to. It’s all I can do. And I figure they won’t kick me out. Not in Ireland. Ireland has a long history with evictions. It used to be that English property owners would evict their poor Irish tenants. So, now eviction is a bad word in Ireland, almost as bad as slavery in America, I guess. The banks — which have all been bailed out by the taxpayers — don’t want to be seen on TV evicting their tenants now. So I guess I’ll just keep sending them half the mortgage payment. I’ll probably be there for a long time.

“But sooner or later they’ll have to do something. There are 70,000 people in Dublin who aren’t paying their mortgages. And there’s no way they can pay them. The banks are going to have recognize, sooner or later, that they made a mistake lending all that money to us.”

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

.

Guild Investment

Snips from Guild Investment - QE Watch 2011

... get ready for a big stock market and industrial commodities rally later in the year after QE maneuvers in Europe and the U.S.

We expect regional turmoil to last for quite a while, and this opinion is one reason why we still believe that oil can move to $150 per barrel. Whatever the level when the disturbances begin, you can bet that oil will move higher.

Gold has good long term prospects, but short term it is definitely vulnerable to continuing volatility. We have been dismayed by the degree of overconfidence among some gold investors. For example, we heard from several gold buyers between August 15 and 22nd; when we suggested to them that gold could have a violent correction at any time they scoffed. They were deluding themselves.

As any experienced investor knows, gold (and every other investment) is vulnerable to corrections, and as gold rises to new highs, corrections will become more frequent and more violent.

.

gold & silver

Ross Clark sees gold correcting to 50DMA (1670) silver to 37.60
MoneyTalks

Bob Hoye expects 20% pull back from highs in gold indices.
Accumulate at HUI 486; GDX 51; XGD.TO 21.50
321Gold
.

Bill Bonner

Quoting Bill Bonner:

Now, let’s look at the gold market. Gold went down $30 yesterday.

Is it too late to join the party?

Investors don’t know what to do. They were buying gold this week because the Fed is putting on its annual shindig at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Everybody knows the Fed sees itself as a booster for Wall Street. They know, too, that QE2 came out of the Fed last summer. That program didn’t do anything for the economy...

..but what a gift to gold holders!

Gold is up 33% so far this year. And by the look of the chart...it could easily finish the year above $2,000. Maybe above $3,000.

But — remember we’re just guessing — gold looks like it has gotten ahead of itself. It looks over-bought. Besides, investors may be expecting too much of the Fed.

Of course, if the Fed comes out with some more high-octane market hooch...this party could really go wild. But, it isn’t likely. Everybody’s watching. Bernanke needs to give the markets enough juice so they don’t fall apart on Friday...but not enough so the gold market goes blind.

Most likely, he will encourage investors. But he won’t cause a panic. Not yet.

And most likely, gold will fall.

Look, we’re gold bugs here at The Daily Reckoning. We have more faith in gold than we do in the fellows running the world financial system. Not that they’re not nice men. And they’re plenty smart. It’s not that we think they’re stupid. It’s just that we think they’re human. They put on their pants one leg at a time, just like everybody else. And just like everybody else, if you put them under pressure...they’ll crack.

But not yet. Our views on the stock market were severely tested during the big rallies of the ’00s. Now, it is the gold bulls who face a test. Gold has gone up every year since 2000. It’s been too easy. So, it’s time for Mr. Market to pull a fast one on gold buyers.

The process of de-leveraging the private sector, following in Japan’s footsteps, will be long, slow and hard. The feds will fight de-leveraging. They’ll zombify the economy. They’ll make a bigger mess of things...

..but they won’t create conditions for the real Third Phase of the bull market in gold. Not yet.

Yes, dear reader, you pried it out of us. We were trying to be coy. We wanted to hold off. We thought that maybe if we gave it to you all at once, well...maybe you wouldn’t respect us.

But there...we’ve gone and done it anyway. You have our Big Prediction on gold right in front of you. And it didn’t cost you a penny.

We’re gold bugs. But we’re not always gold bulls. And our guess now is that Mr. Market is going to throw us a curve. (Bugs...bulls...curves...why the hell not?) Yep. He’s drawing in millions of Johnny-come-lately gold buyers into the market. And now he’s going to massacre them...and test us.

Because gold is going lower...not higher.

Yep, you read it here first. Stocks are going down. But so is gold.

“Bill, you’ve been saying that gold is going higher for 11 years. Are you now really saying that it’s probably going down?”

“Yep.”

“But didn’t you just urge readers to sell stocks and buy gold?”

“Yep.”

“So you now think it’s going down, right? “

“Yep.”

“So, are you selling your gold?”

“Nope... You think I’m crazy? This is just a temporary setback...maybe a few years, that’s all. This bull market in gold won’t end until gold and the Dow meet.”

Our guess is that gold goes down...shakes out the speculators and weak investors...and then — perhaps a couple years from now...perhaps longer — begins its third and final phase.

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
for The Daily Reckoning

HUI seasonality

timing the market.ca
.

Natural Gas

Quoting from timingthemarket.ca

Headline reads, “Storms could disrupt gas sector: Seasonal strength August-October at weather’s whim”.

Following is full text:

Natural gas prices have a history of moving higher from August to December. What are prospects this year?

Thackray’s 2011 Investor’s Guide notes that U.S. natural gas prices have recorded exceptional seasonal strength from August 1st to December 21st during the past 15 periods. The trade was profitable in 12 of the past 15 periods. Average return per period was 42.3 percent. A word of caution! Natural gas prices are volatile. Returns during the past 12 profitable periods were substantial, but losses during the three periods that recorded a loss also were substantial. “Sweet spot” for the seasonal trade is from the end of August to the end of October.

Seasonal tendencies in the sector are influenced by two annual recurring weather related events during late summer and early fall: Warm weather that increases demand for natural gas used to produce power for air conditioning and hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico that frequently curtail supply. The Gulf of Mexico is the largest gas producing area in the U.S.. More important of the two events are hurricanes entering the Gulf.

What about this year? Heat in the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico has reached record levels this year. Temperatures have remained high for longer than average, a scenario that favours larger and more frequent tropical storms. Weather forecasters are predicting an increase in the number of Atlantic based hurricanes this year partially because of warmer than average temperatures in hurricane inception areas in the Atlantic

during the past few months. A sixth “name” storm for the current season was announced over the weekend. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government entity, noted that the Atlantic storm season annually averages 9-12 named storms of which five to seven storms reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. This year NOAA is predicting 12-18 named storms of which six to ten storms will reach hurricane strength and three to six storms will become major hurricanes. Natural gas inventories currently are slightly below the middle of their historic demand/supply range for this time of year. The demand/supply balance easily could be disrupted if NOAA’s forecast proves to be true.

Investors can play the seasonal trade in natural gas in two ways: by owning natural gas directly either through futures contracts and futures based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or indirectly by owning “gassy” equities and equity based ETFs. Direct ownership is not for the “faint of heart” due to high price volatility. In addition, futures contracts and futures backed ETFs assume additional risk when futures contracts are in contango. The easiest way to invest is by owning ETFs that hold a diversified portfolio of “gassy” stocks. In the U.S. the top choice among liquid ETFs is First Trust ISE Revere Fund (FCG US$19.33). The fund holds 30 equally weighted North American oil and gas stocks that focus on natural gas production. In Canada, BMO Capital offers the BMO Junior Gas Index ETF (ZJN $21.63). Units track performance of the Dow Jones Select Junior Gas Index, a portfolio holding 38 “gassy” stocks.

North American natural gas equities and related ETFs are attractive for another reason this year. Junior companies in the natural gas industry are actively exploring and developing additional reserves from recent gas shale discoveries. Successful drilling has attracted the interest of large international oil and gas companies who have been acquiring junior producers at premium prices.

The technical profile for natural gas currently is negative, but is starting to show promise. Intermediate trend is down. Natural gas trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, support was established last week at US$3.85 and short term momentum indicators are recovering from deeply oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite has been positive since the beginning of July.

Preferred strategy is to accumulate “gassy” equities and equity ETFs for a seasonal trade that is expected to last until at least the end of October.

.

Guild Investment

Stocks
Keep a close eye on world markets. Much uncertainty and volatility exist. We expect a huge quantitative easing and bond-buying program to be instituted in the next few months by Europe, Japan, and the U.S. jointly. China may also join in. This development will signal to us a big move up in gold, stocks, oil, commodities and other investment areas that benefit from inflation.

Investor Risk Perceptions Shifting
.

The Beauty of English around the world

In a Bangkok temple:
IT IS FORBIDDEN TO ENTER A WOMAN, EVEN A FOREIGNER, IF DRESSED AS A MAN.

Cocktail lounge, Norway:
LADIES ARE REQUESTED NOT TO HAVE CHILDREN IN THE BAR.

Doctors office, Rome:
SPECIALIST IN WOMEN AND OTHER DISEASES.

Dry cleaners, Bangkok:
DROP YOUR TROUSERS HERE FOR THE BEST RESULTS.

In a Nairobi restaurant:
CUSTOMERS WHO FIND OUR WAITRESSES RUDE OUGHT TO SEE THE MANAGER.

On the main road to Mombassa, leaving Nairobi:
TAKE NOTICE: WHEN THIS SIGN IS UNDER WATER, THIS ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

On a poster at Kencom:
ARE YOU AN ADULT THAT CANNOT READ? IF SO WE CAN HELP.

In a City restaurant:
OPEN SEVEN DAYS A WEEK AND WEEKENDS.

In a cemetery:
PERSONS ARE PROHIBITED FROM PICKING FLOWERS FROM ANY BUT THEIR OWN GRAVES.

Tokyo hotel's rules and regulations:
GUESTS ARE REQUESTED NOT TO SMOKE OR DO OTHER DISGUSTING BEHAVIOURS IN BED.

On the menu of a Swiss restaurant:
OUR WINES LEAVE YOU NOTHING TO HOPE FOR.

In a Tokyo bar:
SPECIAL COCKTAILS FOR THE LADIES WITH NUTS.

Hotel, Yugoslavia:
THE FLATTENING OF UNDERWEAR WITH PLEASURE IS THE JOB OF THE CHAMBERMAID.

Hotel, Japan:
YOU ARE INVITED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
CHAMBERMAID.

In the lobby of a Moscow hotel across from a Russian Orthodox monastery:
YOU ARE WELCOME TO VISIT THE CEMETERY WHERE FAMOUS RUSSIAN AND SOVIET COMPOSERS, ARTISTS AND WRITERS ARE BURIED DAILY EXCEPT THURSDAY.

A sign posted in Germany's Black Forest:
IT IS STRICTLY FORBIDDEN ON OUR BLACK FOREST CAMPING SITE THAT PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT SEX, FOR INSTANCE, MEN AND WOMEN, LIVE TOGETHER IN ONE
TENT UNLESS THEY ARE MARRIED WITH EACH OTHER FOR THIS PURPOSE.

Hotel, Zurich:
BECAUSE OF THE IMPROPRIETY OF ENTERTAINING GUESTS OF THE OPPOSITE SEX IN THE BEDROOM, IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOBBY BE USED FOR THIS PURPOSE.

Advertisement for donkey rides, Thailand:
WOULD YOU LIKE TO RIDE ON YOUR OWN ASS?

Airline ticket office, Copenhagen:
WE TAKE YOUR BAGS AND SEND THEM IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

A laundry in Rome:
LADIES, LEAVE YOUR CLOTHES HERE AND SPEND THE AFTERNOON HAVING A GOOD TIME.

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Gold : buying the mid August correction

After touching $1,818 intraday on Aug 10, gold is at $1,725 as I type.

Targets for increased buying are 1700 1675 1650 etc, for about a two week window.

1,575 is the low of Hubbartt's "volatility box".

GDX is outperforming S&P500 by wide margin.

GDXJ now at 34.90 could retest 31.60 area.

DJIA now 11,265 could rally to 11,860 before dropping to 9,500 area in October.

More detail and easy to understand charts in Morris Hubbartt's Aug 12 editorial
.

gold, oil, and a new currency?

Here's a short snip from GuildInvestment.com "Got Volatility?"

2. Investors who want to maintain their buying power, or who want to become wealthy, will seek alternatives to the dollar such as the ones we have long espoused. Gold, strong non-U.S. currencies. If the dollar is devalued in one large increment; food, oil, and other commodities would rise dramatically. At that time, we would not be surprised to see oil and gold double from their current levels.

3. A much lower dollar will help solve many of the U.S. growth problems: corporate profits will rise, exports will increase, employment will increase, and the economic stagnation will improve, but inflation will rise at a rapid rate.

.

Natural Gas

Investing in Natural Gas with Exchange Traded Funds

Natural gas prices have a history of moving higher from August to December. What are prospects this year?

Thackray’s 2011 Investor’s Guide notes that U.S. natural gas prices have recorded exceptional seasonal strength from August 1st to December 21st during the past 15 periods. The trade was profitable in 12 of the past 15 periods. Average return per period was 42.3 percent. The sweet spot is from the end of August to the end of October. A word of caution! Natural gas prices are volatile. Returns during the past 12 profitable periods were substantial, but losses during the three losing periods also were substantial.

Seasonality by the sector is influenced by one minor and one major annual weather event that occur each fall. The minor event is warm weather that increases demand for natural gas used to produce power for air conditioning. The major event is hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico that frequently curtail supply. The Gulf of Mexico is the largest gas producing area in the U.S.

What about this year? Weather forecasters are predicting hotter than average temperatures in eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. states in the month of August. Weather forecasters also are predicting an increase in the number of Atlantic based hurricanes this year partially because of warmer than average temperatures in hurricane inception areas during the past few months. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government entity noted that the Atlantic storm season annually averages 9-12 name storms of which five to seven storms reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. This year NOAA is predicting 12-18 named storms of which six to ten storms will reach hurricane strength and three to six storms will become major hurricanes. Natural gas inventories currently are in the middle of their historic demand/supply range for this time of year. The demand/supply balance easily could be disrupted if current weather forecasts prove to be true.

The direct way to invest is through ownership of futures backed Exchange Traded Funds that track the price of natural gas. Direct ownership is not for the “faint of heart” due to high price volatility. In addition, futures contracts and futures backed ETFs assume additional risk when futures contracts are in contango.

The most actively traded natural gas Exchange Traded Fund is the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG US$10.00). It attempts to track the spot price of natural gas in the U.S. Management expense ratio is 0.60 percent.

The second most actively traded natural gas ETF in the U.S. is the U.S. 12 month Natural Gas Fund (UNL US$30.01). The fund is based on a basket of futures contracts that expire over the next 12 months. Management expense ratio is 0.75 percent.

Claymore Investments offers the Claymore Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS $23.70). Units hold physical natural gas forward contracts designed to track the NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index. Management expense ratio is 0.80 percent.

Horizons offers a variety of U.S. futures based natural gas ETFs that are hedged against U.S. currency risk. The Winter-Term NYMEX Natural Gas ETF (HUN $4.35) is designed to track the NYMEX futures contract for the next January delivery. Management expense ratio is 0.75 percent. The BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull+ ETF (HNU $4.31) seeks investment results equal to 200 percent of the daily upside performance of the NYMEX natural gas contract for the next delivery month. The BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear+ ETF (HND $$9.55) seeks investment results equal to 200% of the daily downside performance of the NYMEX natural gas contract for the next delivery month. Management expense ratio for the Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs is 1.15 percent.

On the charts, natural gas currently has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Gas trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive at the beginning of July. Preferred strategy is to wait until late August for technical signs of bottoming before entering into the seasonal trade.

TimingTheMarket.ca
.

No Top In Gold Price

12 clear points from Jim Sinclair

The Goldmans of the world will invent OTC derivatives and maybe even a listed second derivative to speculate on word liquidity via the gold price. There will be no 1980 type collapse in the gold price. Over valuation which occurs in all bull markets might be by 20%. This will result in producing gold mining shares becoming the utilities of 2016 onward.

.

Water ~ Kevin Kerr

Most people do not consider water to be a commodity like many of our other vital resources such as agriculture and energy. That’s mainly because it’s not traded on a futures exchange and because in the West we have considered clean potable water to be a right, not a privilege.

Those days are over …

Clean potable water is becoming more expensive, more scarce, and more important than ever for both drinking and growing crops.

As you can see, having enough useable water is a matter of our very global survival.

So how can you take advantage of this incredible market and the opportunities it affords? Actually there are quite a few ways.

Water-Related Stocks

Anticipating all this future scarcity, many money managers invest directly in water supplies by purchasing shares of companies like PICO (PICO) and Limoneira (LMNR), which are basically farming and real estate holding companies. The attraction is mostly for their water rights.

But I think these approaches are very tricky and too tough to accurately estimate the real value of their water holdings.

Stock in companies that are involved in clean water supplies is another idea. One example is Molycorp (MCP).

Molycorp has designed a revolutionary water filtration system to purify the world’s most heavily polluted drinking water sources. This technology was borne from a joint development effort with the U.S. Army for use in man-portable devices that provide soldiers with clean drinking water regardless of the water source.

In my opinion, though, there are far better ways to take advantage of the critical demand in the water market …

Water ETFs

You could consider an exchange traded fund (ETF). One I like happens to be the largest water ETF available.

The PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (PHO) is based on the Palisades Water Index™ (Index). This Index seeks to identify a group of companies that focus on the provision of potable water, the treatment of water, and the technology and services that are directly related to water consumption.

And if you are looking to leverage your investment for even bigger possible gains, you could use options on ETFs.

No matter which vehicle you decide is the best for this market, rest assured the growing urgent need of the world’s population for clean potable water will continue. And that’s not going to change anytime soon!

Yours for resource profits,

Kevin Kerr

TheTradingReport.com

PICO 29.45
LMNR 22.90
MCP 57.40
PHO 20.00
.

Special Report Gold

The following quoted from ERSTE GROUP paper - 91 pages



The fact that not many market participants actively participated in the last high of the gold price in the 1970s is a positive aspect. This is probably also why the majority of investors still doubt the sustainability and justification of the bull markets although we are in its tenth year. In
the 1970s it was an unwritten law to invest at least a fifth of one’s portfolio in gold.

“I prophesy that in 1950 every Treasury in the world will be talking about my ideas, and by that time, of course, the problems will be quite different, and my ideas will be not only obsolete but dangerous.” John Maynard Keynes

Gold, as antagonist of uncovered paper currencies, remains an excellent hedge against
worst-case scenarios. Low real interest rates and high counterparty risk provide the perfect environment for gold. Both are clearly the case at the moment, and we expect this scenario to last. At the current real interest rates, gold is an obvious alternative to short-term government bonds, current accounts, or time deposits.

After many years of a chronic low-interest-rate policy, we do not believe that interest rates, along the lines of Paul Volcker’s, would be possible without the system collapsing. Therefore this time the gold bull market should end for different reasons than at the beginning of the 1980s.

“If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?" Kenneth J. Gerbino

July 2011 - In the short term, the seasonality of the gold price seems to suggest the continuation of the
sideways movement, followed by the strongest seasonal period in September. In the long run we could see a future where rather than asking for the price of gold, people will much more often ask for the price in gold.

Our next 12M target is USD 2,000. We believe that the parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us. This phase should take the gold price to our long-term target of at least USD 2,300 at the end of the cycle.
.

hot air

A woman in a hot-air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, "You're in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2,346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude."

She rolled her eyes and said, "You must be a Republican."

"I am," replied the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me I suppose is technically correct. But I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me."

The man smiled and responded, "You must be an Democrat."

"I am," replied the balloonist. "How did you know?"

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You've risen to where you are, due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but somehow, now it's my fault."
.

golf

An actual sign posted at a golf club in Scotland.

1. BACK STRAIGHT, KNEES BENT, FEET SHOULDER WIDTH APART.

2. FORM A LOOSE GRIP.

3. KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN!

4. AVOID A QUICK BACK SWING.

5. STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

6. TRY NOT TO HIT ANYONE.

7. IF YOU ARE TAKING TOO LONG, LET OTHERS GO AHEAD OF YOU.

8. DON'T STAND DIRECTLY IN FRONT OF OTHERS.

9. QUIET PLEASE...WHILE OTHERS ARE PREPARING.

10. DON'T TAKE EXTRA STROKES.

WELL DONE... NOW, FLUSH THE URINAL, WASH YOUR HANDS AND GO OUTSIDE, AND TEE OFF.
.

sign

Down in Louisiana, Reverend Boudreaux was the part-time pastor of the local Cajun Baptist Church, and Pastor Thibodaux was the minister of the Covenant Church across the road. They were both standing by the road pounding a sign into the ground that read:

"Da End Is Near
Turn Yo Self 'Roun' Now
Afore It Be Too Late!"

As a car sped past them, the driver leaned out his window and yelled, "RELIGIOUS NUTS!!!!"

From the curve they heard screeching tires, followed by a big splash... Boudreaux turned to Thibodaux and asked,

"Do ya think maybe da sign should jus' say, 'Bridge Out'?"
.

li'l Jessica

Jessica's "Daily Affirmation"
.

Pity the poor boys of today

"No, there's nothing wrong with you, there is actually something wrong with society."


Now, the price young men and boys must pay to inevitably come to this epiphany is uncalculable. The financial costs of going to night clubs to meet girls, the opportunity costs of time wasted pursuing these 20 something entitlement princesses, not to mention the sheer mental costs boys and men suffer as their brains cannot reconcile this childish behavior with logic or just common decency cannot be tallied. Heck, some guys NEVER figure this out. Thankfully, the "manosphere" and various web sites are slowly coming around to the rescue to provide some kind of guidance or wisdom to young boys and men today so they do not have to suffer the inanity we did and can live better lives. But there is a problem.

SmallDeadAnimals.com
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Morris Hubbartt - June 24

quoting Morris:

I remain a long term bull with buy signals in play on the entire precious metals sector. I continue to call for a breakout in the sector in the late June to early July timeframe, with new highs projected at around $1650 for gold bullion. Timing is the trickiest part of analysis. My internal indicators are pointing to new highs in the August timeframe for gold. Use market volatility to lower the cost of your core positions.

Editorial at 321gold.com
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Running out of Silver ?

Because we believe this bull run is far from over, we advise investors to always maintain exposure to the precious metals markets. But the question every investor faces in a bull market is: Do I buy now, anticipating prices will continue higher – and chance getting clobbered if a correction arrives? Or do I wait for a pullback and possibly miss out on big gains?

There’s risk either way.

The Trading Report
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Kelly Family

Kelly Family - Santa Maria video in English

Barbara Kelly died of breast cancer in 1982, shortly after the birth of the youngest child, Angelo. Her last words to her family were "Keep on singing!" The band continued to record, Daniel Kelly having formed his own recording company in 1980. As the older members of the family reached adulthood, Caroline and Paul left the band, Caroline to study nursing and Paul to marry. In 1990 Daniel Kelly suffered a stroke but remained a leading figure in the group until his death in 2002.

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more from Morris

Washout negative sentiment and oversold conditions on gold stocks are working together to set up a move that will likely see this sector sprint over 50% in a few months, and probably do it by December 2011.

321gold editorial
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Quiz

Right Brain/ Left Brain Quiz The higher of these two numbers below indicates which side of your brain has dominance in your life. Realising your right brain/left brain tendancy will help you interact with and to understand others. Left Brain Dominance: (9) Right Brain Dominance: (7) Right Brain/ Left Brain Quiz

Martin Armstrong

Regarding Armstrong's June 13 "turning point"; in his essay titled "Is the End Near" dated June 5, 2011 he writes:

With the turning point of June 13th/14th on the doorstep, this appears to be a subtle quiet change in trend that will not even be noticed except with hindsight as was the case in 1985.65, 1994.25, and 2002.85. The first produced the Plaza Accord and the birth of the G5 that unleashed government intervention that manifested 2.15 years later in the 1987 Crash and then 2.15 years after that the peak in Japan. The 1994.25 turning point was the shift in capital flows from Asia back to the US and Europe. That marked the precise day of the low in the S&P 500 just as the 1987.8 target produced the precise day of the low for the 1987 Crash. The 2002.85 target produced the low in the share markets after the DOT.COM Bubble in 2000. Each of these turning points represented with hindsight important shifts in long-term trend. - page 8

So, don't expect multitudes of angels singing on high, or men of virtue being pierced as they hang between heaven and earth with a thief on one side and a murderer on the other. The coming days will pass as quietly into the night as a satisfied lover slips into a restful slumber. Only with the passage of time, as a slight bulging of growth appears, will he say, "Now I see what happened on that otherwise forgettable day".
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Morris Hubbartt

The typical reaction to a double bottoming process is disbelief. The sentiment that I am examining is as negative as it gets. The table is set; I see a 50% rally unfolding by the end year in this sector. The other thing I see helping gold stocks is the sentiment in the US Stock Market. Likewise, it too is indicating a bottom is at a hand.

321 Gold editorial
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Hummingbird

The guy in this video found an injured baby humming bird and nursed it back to health – an amazing thing to see. With all the grim news out there, we figure smiles are worth passing along.
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Source: Casey Research
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Guy Penrod & David Phelps

"It Is Well With My Soul" By Guy Penrod And David Phelps
... with introduction by Bill Gaither
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1 Corinthians 1:18

The message of the cross is foolishness to those who are perishing, but to us who are being saved, it is the power of God.

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The Preacher

A new pastor was visiting in the homes of his parishioners. At one house it seemed obvious that someone was at home, but no answer came to his repeated knocks at the door.
So he took out a card and wrote: "Revelation 3:20" on the back of it and stuck it in the door.

When the offering was processed the following Sunday, he found that his card had been returned. Added to it was this cryptic message: "Genesis 3:10."

Reaching for his Bible to check out the citation, he broke up in gales of laughter.

Revelation 3:20: "Behold, I stand at the door and knock."
Genesis 3:10: "I heard thy voice in the garden, and I was afraid, because I was naked; and I hid myself."

Remember when the funniest jokes were the clean ones? They still are!

Election Day

Stevie Wonder - Heaven Help Us All
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Canadian Parliamentary Coalition Result
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Karen Marie Garrett

♫ Karen Marie Garrett - Tip-Toe Dancer
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Good Friday

A beautiful hymn sung by the Mountain Anthems, from their album 'Under His Wings'
Yes, I Know
~~~~~//~~~~~
The Esh Family from Kentucky singing " Home",written by Amos Esh.The Eshes find a special meaning in going Home,beings one of their brothers lost his life serving God overseas.03 -26-10 Tragedy stuck in this family this morning,the parents,John & Sadie Esh,Son Leroy Esh,his wife Naomi,and son Jalen,3 daughters Rose,Anna,and Rachel and Rachels ,fiance Joel Gingrich and a friend Ashley Kramer were killed in a fiery crash this morning near Munfordville KY.They have gone home finally.

Home By The Eshes
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This World Is Not My Home
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Come Gracious Spirit
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Let all things now living
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EshFamily.org
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Tex Morton

YouTube ~ Old Shep
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YouTube ~ In The Luggage Van Ahead
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Bob and Hector ~ Beautiful QLD & A Gordon For Me - Heywood Accordion Duet
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Now Is The Hour - Emu Creek Bush Band
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Tom Lehrer

YouTube - We Will All Go Together When We Go
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YouTube - The Wiener Schnitzel Waltz
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the realist's love song - When You Are Old And Gray
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humour

youtube > Jerry Clower - Bible Thumper
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youtube > Jerry Clower - Fishing with the Game Warden
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... and the bonus number Danny Gaither & Mark Lowry
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Hubbartt - april fool

Latest public update from Morris

GDXJ > new buy signal near 38.00
GDX > new buy signal near 58.00 (strong support at 55.00)
SIVR > CAUTION > buy zone is 33 to 31
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idiot savant

Doug Casey dispels about 20 common reasons not to own gold. Of course, one reason is that Warren Buffett is a huge gold bear. Here is Doug’s excellent response to this view:

This is true, but irrelevant – entirely apart from suffering from the logical fallacy called “argument from authority.” But, nonetheless, when the world’s most successful investor speaks, it’s worth listening. Here's what Buffett recently said about gold in an interview with Ben Stein, another goldphobe: "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all – not some, all – of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

I’ve long considered Buffett an idiot savant – a genius at buying stocks but at nothing else. His statement is quite accurate, but completely meaningless. The same could be said of the U.S. dollar money supply – or even of the world inventory of steel and copper. These things represent potential but are not businesses or productive assets in themselves. Buffett is certainly not stupid, but he’s a shameless and intellectually dishonest sophist. And although a great investor, he’s neither an economist or someone who believes in free markets. ~Casey's Daily Dispatch 2011-0331

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Reasons NOT to buy a house

NOTE: this is copyrighted material ... do not link.

Housing as an Investment
By Vedran Vuk

Here’s an interesting video on Yahoo!Finance of James Altucher from Formula Capital discussing home ownership as an investment. I don’t agree with a lot of his points, but a few are really great insights. Previously, I’ve compared buying a house to investing in the stock market, but Altucher takes it one step further. He notes that buying a house is essentially the opposite of diversifying your portfolio. In very few cases would anyone want to place so much weight on one sector. Second, if an investor wants to play the real estate market, there’s no need to actually purchase properties; the stock market exists for a reason.

Another intriguing point was the use of leverage. One of his interviewers asks what about the people who bought a house for $20,000 in 1970 and made a fortune today. Altucher comes back by saying, well, what if an investor utilized the same amount of leverage to purchase the S&P 500 in 1970. They would have also done really well, if not better.

And third, he points out the risk of owning a home on job mobility. Not only are homes illiquid, but the worse times get, the more illiquid a house becomes. You essentially trap yourself at the worst possible moment. I know a lot of readers underwater on their mortgages are feeling this pain.

However, one of the interviewers makes an interesting point that housing is the only way to get some folks to buy and hold, an interesting thought also.

~Casey's Daily Dispatch 2011-0330

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Hubbartt

Latest update from Morris Hubbartt

USD index 75.90: new lows coming in 2011
Previous lows were:
75.25 March 22, 2011
74.23 November 2009
71.31 July 2008

US citizens: "imagine food and gas at triple the current prices".

Gold 1,432: increase buying toward 1,350
Long term target 4,000

GDXJ 39.00: (taking profits) one year target is 75

GDX 60.00: (taking profits) strong support 55 to 53
one year target is 72

SIVR 37.25: (taking profits) buy zone 33 to 31

Hubbartt's peek

Morris Hubbartt has a gold and stock market update; dated March 18

Main points of interest:

> gold to 1,325 possible (now 1,418)
> GDXJ retest 34.00 to 32.50 (now 36.90)
> GDX retest 55.00 to 52.50 (now 56.66)
> SIVR buy zone: 33.25 to 31.00 (now 34.97)
> SPY: very weak and going lower (now 127.76)
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Billy

Billy Andrusco - Latin Afternoon - Made By Els.
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music

"HOW BIG IS GOD" - featuring: Big John Hall

Big John Hall - The Lighthouse

Wouldn't Take Northin' For My Journey Now (Gaither group)

Who Am I - Gatlin Brothers featuring Tanya Goodman-Sykes
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Cycles

I believe the following quote is in reference to Martin Armstrong's cycles work which pinpoints June 2011 as an important turning point.

Cycles are analyzed by comparing their message to what the market is doing. Cycles are not commands from on high dictating to the markets what they must do.

The answer is what is happening now in the market versus what the cycles call for. The cycle calling for gold to decline into June of 2011 was cancelled by the market’s action of blowing through $1372 and never looking back.

The importance of this analytical approach is that it says without any doubt that the gold price is stronger than any accepted commentator believes.

The normal suspects will throw their blocks, but I assure you at only a waste of good money. The price we have spoken about for a long period $1650 will be low. ~Jim Sinclair

Jesse Livermore

For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never go broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

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